100.0% average title probability
USA MLS race map
USA MLS Season Predictor 2026-2027
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
0.0% average title probability
100.0% average relegation risk
Gap score 30.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 1 | 71 | 75.2 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 2 | 58 | 62.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New England Revolution | 3 | 58 | 61.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Inter Miami | 4 | 56 | 59.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Fire | 5 | 55 | 56.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Dallas | 6 | 55 | 57.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 1 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.2 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 2 | 2.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | +0.3 |
| New England Revolution | 3 | 3.0 | 93.1% | 0.0% | +0.6 |
| Inter Miami | 4 | 4.0 | 78.5% | 0.0% | -0.3 |
| Chicago Fire | 5 | 5.0 | 16.9% | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| FC Dallas | 6 | 6.0 | 10.8% | 0.0% | +0.5 |
| Charlotte | 7 | 8.0 | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.3 |
| Houston Dynamo | 10 | 8.5 | 0.3% | 0.0% | +0.2 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 23 | 30.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| CF Montreal | 29 | 26 | 29.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Atlanta United FC | 28 | 30 | 28.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DC United | 27 | 33 | 27.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin | 26 | 34 | 26.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota United FC | 25 | 38 | 25.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 10 | 7 | 53.8 | 54.0 | 30.0 |
| New York City FC | 21 | 24 | 40.6 | 40.1 | 30.0 |
| Toronto FC | 24 | 21 | 41.1 | 41.2 | 30.0 |
| New York Red Bulls | 25 | 22 | 40.8 | 41.3 | 30.0 |
| Portland Timbers | 19 | 20 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 10.0 |
| San Diego | 22 | 23 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 10.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 07 Nov 2026 | 218.2 | 17.5% | 22.9% | 59.6% | CF Montreal: Bottom Finish 100.0% | Vancouver Whitecaps: Top 4 100.0% |
| New England Revolution vs Inter Miami | 02 Nov 2026 | 193.3 | 51.7% | 22.9% | 25.5% | New England Revolution: Top 4 93.1% | Inter Miami: Top 4 78.5% |
| FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC | 07 Nov 2026 | 123.6 | 28.2% | 24.3% | 47.6% | FC Cincinnati: Projection 0.0% | Nashville SC: Title 100.0% |
| Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution | 07 Nov 2026 | 120.3 | 39.5% | 24.7% | 35.9% | Orlando City SC: Projection 0.0% | New England Revolution: Top 4 93.1% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders | 01 Nov 2026 | 116.9 | 62.5% | 23.0% | 14.6% | Vancouver Whitecaps: Top 4 100.0% | Seattle Sounders: Projection 0.0% |
| San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City | 08 Nov 2026 | 113.1 | 70.8% | 17.9% | 11.4% | San Diego: Projection 0.0% | Sporting Kansas City: Bottom Finish 100.0% |
| Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls | 01 Nov 2026 | 109.9 | 78.1% | 16.2% | 5.7% | Nashville SC: Title 100.0% | New York Red Bulls: Projection 0.0% |
| Inter Miami vs Charlotte | 07 Nov 2026 | 97.8 | 58.2% | 20.9% | 21.0% | Inter Miami: Top 4 78.5% | Charlotte: Projection 0.0% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for MLS. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
21
Goal Model Base
1.84 / 1.4
Form Model Base
1.37 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (29-30) | Form Bottom Finish (29-30) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 71 | 75.3 | 75.1 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 58 | 62.0 | 62.3 | 2 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 58 | 60.8 | 61.4 | 3 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 89.0% | 97.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Inter Miami | 56 | 59.1 | 58.8 | 4 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 78.9% | 78.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 55 | 56.7 | 56.7 | 5 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 55 | 56.8 | 57.3 | 6 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Charlotte | 53 | 54.0 | 53.7 | 8 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 52 | 53.5 | 53.2 | 9 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | St. Louis City | 51 | 52.2 | 51.7 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Houston Dynamo | 51 | 53.8 | 54.0 | 10 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Los Angeles FC | 47 | 50.4 | 49.9 | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 47 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 12 | 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | FC Cincinnati | 46 | 47.0 | 47.2 | 13 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Columbus Crew | 44 | 45.1 | 45.1 | 16 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 44 | 45.0 | 44.7 | 18 | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Seattle Sounders | 43 | 45.1 | 45.5 | 14 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17 | Colorado Rapids | 43 | 43.9 | 43.5 | 19 | 19 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Orlando City SC | 43 | 44.5 | 44.4 | 20 | 20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Real Salt Lake | 42 | 43.8 | 44.0 | 16 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 40 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 19 | 20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21 | New York City FC | 39 | 40.6 | 40.1 | 21 | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Toronto FC | 39 | 41.1 | 41.2 | 24 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23 | New York Red Bulls | 39 | 40.8 | 41.3 | 25 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 24 | San Diego | 38 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 22 | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 25 | Minnesota United FC | 38 | 40.0 | 40.2 | 25 | 25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Austin | 34 | 35.4 | 35.5 | 26 | 26 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 27 | DC United | 33 | 34.2 | 34.6 | 27 | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 32.8 | 32.1 | 28 | 28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 29 | CF Montreal | 26 | 26.8 | 26.7 | 29 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 23 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 30 | 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders | 58.0% | 24.0% | 18.1% | 1.69 | 0.82 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls | 77.8% | 14.2% | 8.0% | 2.62 | 0.72 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC | 40.7% | 24.3% | 34.9% | 1.56 | 1.43 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | New England Revolution vs Inter Miami | 43.3% | 22.3% | 34.4% | 1.83 | 1.62 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC | 59.2% | 20.7% | 20.1% | 2.10 | 1.15 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo | 42.4% | 23.0% | 34.6% | 1.73 | 1.55 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Inter Miami vs Charlotte | 54.0% | 18.7% | 27.3% | 2.56 | 1.82 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC | 25.5% | 22.5% | 52.0% | 1.26 | 1.88 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC | 59.1% | 21.7% | 19.2% | 1.95 | 1.01 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC | 39.8% | 25.2% | 35.0% | 1.46 | 1.35 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 18.3% | 22.4% | 59.3% | 0.92 | 1.85 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew | 48.4% | 22.2% | 29.4% | 1.91 | 1.45 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution | 41.8% | 22.4% | 35.8% | 1.80 | 1.65 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | DC United vs New York City FC | 29.6% | 26.5% | 43.9% | 1.11 | 1.42 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC | 35.0% | 28.2% | 36.7% | 1.14 | 1.18 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 53.9% | 21.4% | 24.7% | 2.03 | 1.32 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids | 53.7% | 23.4% | 22.9% | 1.77 | 1.07 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Austin vs Portland Timbers | 40.1% | 23.4% | 36.5% | 1.64 | 1.56 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City | 73.5% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 3.06 | 1.26 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | 33.1% | 24.9% | 42.0% | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City | 40.9% | 28.3% | 30.8% | 1.25 | 1.04 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders | 66.9% | 22.0% | 11.1% | 1.23 | 0.91 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls | 78.4% | 18.2% | 3.4% | 1.59 | 0.90 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 0.67 | 0.89 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | New England Revolution vs Inter Miami | 60.1% | 23.4% | 16.5% | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC | 62.4% | 22.9% | 14.7% | 1.12 | 0.90 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 33 | Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo | 50.5% | 25.0% | 24.5% | 1.07 | 1.05 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Inter Miami vs Charlotte | 62.3% | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.23 | 1.01 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC | 30.8% | 26.1% | 43.2% | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC | 59.8% | 23.4% | 16.8% | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC | 58.1% | 23.7% | 18.1% | 0.92 | 0.78 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 16.7% | 23.4% | 59.9% | 0.65 | 1.19 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew | 47.7% | 25.4% | 26.9% | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution | 37.1% | 26.9% | 36.0% | 1.14 | 1.31 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | DC United vs New York City FC | 45.1% | 25.8% | 29.2% | 0.81 | 0.87 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC | 55.9% | 24.1% | 19.9% | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 60.7% | 23.3% | 16.0% | 1.12 | 0.93 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids | 70.5% | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.21 | 0.80 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Austin vs Portland Timbers | 39.7% | 26.5% | 33.8% | 0.73 | 0.86 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City | 68.0% | 21.7% | 10.3% | 0.91 | 0.56 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | 43.4% | 26.0% | 30.6% | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 34 | Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City | 60.1% | 23.4% | 16.5% | 1.11 | 0.93 |