23.8% average title probability
Europe Champions League race map
Europe Champions League Season Predictor 2026-2027
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
23.6% average title probability
44.9% average relegation risk
Gap score 90.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 3 | 9 | 18.4 | 23.8% | 19.0% | 28.6% |
| Aston Villa | 1 | 9 | 18.0 | 23.6% | 22.9% | 24.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 9 | 17.0 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 13.8% |
| Real Betis | 5 | 9 | 17.4 | 11.2% | 8.8% | 13.5% |
| Real Madrid | 4 | 9 | 17.3 | 11.0% | 9.1% | 12.9% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 7 | 16.0 | 5.2% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 3 | 1.0 | 66.0% | 23.8% | +2.2 |
| Aston Villa | 1 | 1.0 | 63.5% | 23.6% | +1.4 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 1.0 | 48.7% | 13.2% | +1.3 |
| Real Madrid | 4 | 2.5 | 47.6% | 11.0% | +2.1 |
| Real Betis | 5 | 2.0 | 46.7% | 11.2% | +2.4 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 4.0 | 30.8% | 5.2% | +0.9 |
| Arsenal | 7 | 5.5 | 25.9% | 4.7% | -0.2 |
| Barcelona | 8 | 6.0 | 15.1% | 2.4% | -0.8 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovan Bratislava | 36 | 0 | 36.0 | 44.9% | 47.9% | 41.9% |
| Lille | 35 | 0 | 36.0 | 43.9% | 37.8% | 49.9% |
| FC Porto | 34 | 0 | 36.0 | 34.7% | 26.9% | 42.4% |
| Fenerbahçe | 31 | 2 | 34.0 | 18.7% | 22.2% | 15.1% |
| Slavia Praha | 32 | 1 | 34.5 | 17.9% | 14.9% | 20.8% |
| Viking | 33 | 1 | 31.0 | 9.0% | 7.2% | 10.7% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 24 | 15 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 90.0 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 19 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 80.0 |
| Villarreal | 15 | 20 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 50.0 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 6 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 40.0 |
| Sporting CP | 13 | 9 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 40.0 |
| Viking | 29 | 33 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 40.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain | 08 Dec 2026 | 130.6 | 59.1% | 20.2% | 20.7% | Aston Villa: Top 4 63.5% | Paris Saint Germain: Top 4 48.7% |
| Liverpool vs FC Porto | 09 Dec 2026 | 113.2 | 72.3% | 16.8% | 10.9% | Liverpool: Top 4 66.0% | FC Porto: Bottom Finish 34.7% |
| Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis | 24 Nov 2026 | 110.4 | 20.8% | 21.0% | 58.3% | Slovan Bratislava: Bottom Finish 44.9% | Real Betis: Top 4 46.7% |
| Lille vs Slovan Bratislava | 19 Jan 2027 | 107.6 | 58.2% | 20.3% | 21.6% | Lille: Bottom Finish 43.9% | Slovan Bratislava: Bottom Finish 44.9% |
| Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool | 04 Nov 2026 | 105.9 | 26.1% | 21.1% | 52.9% | Fenerbahçe: Bottom Finish 18.7% | Liverpool: Top 4 66.0% |
| Barcelona vs Aston Villa | 03 Nov 2026 | 102.3 | 47.3% | 22.3% | 30.5% | Barcelona: Top 4 15.1% | Aston Villa: Top 4 63.5% |
| Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa | 27 Jan 2027 | 102.1 | 25.1% | 20.9% | 54.1% | Slavia Praha: Bottom Finish 17.9% | Aston Villa: Top 4 63.5% |
| Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool | 25 Nov 2026 | 101.9 | 39.6% | 22.0% | 38.4% | Club Brugge KV: Projection 0.0% | Liverpool: Top 4 66.0% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Champions League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
90
Goal Model Base
2.5 / 1.59
Form Model Base
1.44 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (35-36) | Form Bottom Finish (35-36) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 9 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 1 | 1 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 59.0% | 67.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 16.3 | 17.6 | 1 | 1 | 12.6% | 13.8% | 44.1% | 53.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 9 | 17.3 | 19.5 | 1 | 1 | 19.0% | 28.6% | 54.2% | 77.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 9 | 16.2 | 18.3 | 2 | 3 | 9.1% | 12.9% | 36.8% | 58.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Real Betis | 9 | 16.2 | 18.6 | 2 | 2 | 8.8% | 13.5% | 35.5% | 57.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 2 | 6 | 7.0% | 3.4% | 32.5% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Arsenal | 7 | 15.7 | 15.5 | 4 | 7 | 7.6% | 1.7% | 33.6% | 18.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Barcelona | 6 | 14.4 | 13.6 | 5 | 7 | 4.2% | 0.5% | 22.3% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Como | 6 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 8 | 11 | 1.5% | 0.1% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Manchester City | 6 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 8 | 8 | 1.6% | 0.4% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 8 | 11 | 1.6% | 0.3% | 11.5% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 6 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13 | 9 | 1.1% | 0.3% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 9 | 12 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Bayern München | 5 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 10 | 10 | 0.8% | 0.1% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 15 | AS Roma | 4 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 20 | 19 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 12 | 12 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 12.3 | 11.1 | 11 | 19 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 20 | 20 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 15 | 20 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 30 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| 21 | Manchester United | 3 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 22 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 26 | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 31 | 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 23 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 32 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 24 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 31 | 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| 28 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 31 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| 29 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 24 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 26 | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 35 | 33 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 15.1% |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 34 | 35 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.9% | 20.8% |
| 33 | Viking | 1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 29 | 33 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 10.7% |
| 34 | FC Porto | 0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 36 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 42.4% |
| 35 | Lille | 0 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 36 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.8% | 49.9% |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 36 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 47.9% | 41.9% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart | 31.7% | 20.1% | 48.2% | 1.82 | 2.25 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP | 50.5% | 21.4% | 28.2% | 2.04 | 1.49 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München | 55.7% | 19.6% | 24.7% | 2.34 | 1.53 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Barcelona vs Aston Villa | 57.7% | 17.6% | 24.7% | 2.79 | 1.85 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Bodo/Glimt vs Lille | 63.9% | 18.4% | 17.8% | 2.42 | 1.22 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Feyenoord vs Inter | 55.7% | 19.3% | 25.0% | 2.39 | 1.58 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Lask Linz vs Slovan Bratislava | 70.8% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 3.45 | 1.70 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Manchester United vs AS Roma | 60.0% | 19.1% | 21.0% | 2.38 | 1.36 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain | 47.9% | 18.8% | 33.2% | 2.53 | 2.12 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid | 46.2% | 20.5% | 33.3% | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool | 36.6% | 19.0% | 44.4% | 2.22 | 2.44 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis | 50.6% | 19.7% | 29.7% | 2.34 | 1.79 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | FC Porto vs Napoli | 46.6% | 22.6% | 30.8% | 1.84 | 1.46 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Lens vs Como | 43.1% | 21.0% | 35.9% | 2.03 | 1.85 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV | 47.8% | 20.6% | 31.6% | 2.16 | 1.74 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | RB Leipzig vs Manchester City | 44.2% | 22.5% | 33.4% | 1.83 | 1.57 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Slavia Praha vs Arsenal | 40.5% | 21.9% | 37.6% | 1.85 | 1.77 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Viking vs Sabah FA | 62.8% | 17.4% | 19.8% | 2.70 | 1.51 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Bodo/Glimt vs Lask Linz | 53.2% | 20.8% | 26.0% | 2.13 | 1.45 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Galatasaray vs Aston Villa | 34.3% | 19.1% | 46.6% | 2.10 | 2.44 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund | 60.0% | 20.4% | 19.5% | 2.12 | 1.13 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Como vs AEK Athens FC | 79.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 3.51 | 1.23 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Feyenoord vs FC Porto | 57.3% | 18.7% | 24.1% | 2.52 | 1.62 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Manchester City vs Napoli | 65.0% | 16.1% | 18.9% | 2.97 | 1.63 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | RB Leipzig vs Lens | 56.8% | 20.3% | 22.8% | 2.19 | 1.34 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven | 60.0% | 20.7% | 19.4% | 2.09 | 1.10 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis | 31.5% | 20.2% | 48.3% | 1.80 | 2.24 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Sabah FA vs Barcelona | 44.6% | 20.6% | 34.8% | 2.13 | 1.87 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Slavia Praha vs Villarreal | 50.1% | 18.5% | 31.3% | 2.62 | 2.09 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Atletico Madrid vs Viking | 67.7% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 2.56 | 1.16 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool | 48.6% | 18.0% | 33.4% | 2.75 | 2.31 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Inter vs VfB Stuttgart | 38.3% | 21.5% | 40.2% | 1.85 | 1.90 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Lille vs Bayern München | 36.7% | 18.7% | 44.6% | 2.30 | 2.52 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma | 68.7% | 15.1% | 16.2% | 3.07 | 1.52 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe | 75.2% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 3.05 | 1.15 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Sporting CP vs Manchester United | 65.3% | 17.2% | 17.5% | 2.64 | 1.34 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Viking vs Feyenoord | 62.9% | 17.3% | 19.8% | 2.71 | 1.51 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Villarreal vs Sabah FA | 70.0% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 2.85 | 1.27 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | AEK Athens FC vs Galatasaray | 52.6% | 20.0% | 27.3% | 2.27 | 1.62 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | AS Roma vs Sporting CP | 51.4% | 19.8% | 28.8% | 2.33 | 1.73 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain | 65.1% | 15.8% | 19.1% | 3.06 | 1.70 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Barcelona vs Manchester City | 58.2% | 18.3% | 23.5% | 2.59 | 1.64 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Bayern München vs Slavia Praha | 69.9% | 15.7% | 14.4% | 2.82 | 1.26 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Manchester United vs RB Leipzig | 75.0% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.08 | 1.19 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Napoli vs Club Brugge KV | 45.0% | 19.3% | 35.7% | 2.39 | 2.14 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Real Betis vs Como | 57.3% | 19.0% | 23.7% | 2.44 | 1.55 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk | 37.3% | 23.5% | 39.2% | 1.56 | 1.61 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Arsenal vs Real Madrid | 58.6% | 18.3% | 23.0% | 2.57 | 1.60 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Borussia Dortmund vs Inter | 58.9% | 18.9% | 22.2% | 2.44 | 1.47 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Lask Linz vs Fenerbahçe | 64.3% | 15.7% | 20.0% | 3.16 | 1.83 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Lens vs Bodo/Glimt | 57.5% | 18.8% | 23.7% | 2.49 | 1.58 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Liverpool vs FC Porto | 64.7% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 2.95 | 1.63 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid | 50.9% | 23.1% | 25.9% | 1.80 | 1.22 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | VfB Stuttgart vs Lille | 70.5% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.67 | 1.11 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Bodo/Glimt vs Atletico Madrid | 51.2% | 22.5% | 26.3% | 1.88 | 1.29 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Galatasaray vs Feyenoord | 56.7% | 18.9% | 24.5% | 2.48 | 1.62 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | AEK Athens FC vs AS Roma | 49.7% | 22.0% | 28.3% | 1.94 | 1.42 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund | 69.9% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 2.66 | 1.13 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | FC Porto vs Slavia Praha | 45.5% | 23.5% | 31.0% | 1.71 | 1.38 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Inter vs Liverpool | 40.2% | 18.6% | 41.2% | 2.44 | 2.47 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Lille vs Slovan Bratislava | 67.3% | 15.4% | 17.3% | 3.08 | 1.60 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Real Madrid vs Lask Linz | 64.9% | 17.0% | 18.1% | 2.70 | 1.41 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | VfB Stuttgart vs Club Brugge KV | 55.7% | 18.9% | 25.4% | 2.49 | 1.67 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal | 49.0% | 19.4% | 31.6% | 2.39 | 1.92 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Sabah FA vs Napoli | 57.1% | 20.1% | 22.8% | 2.22 | 1.36 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Real Betis vs Arsenal | 50.3% | 22.2% | 27.5% | 1.93 | 1.38 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Como vs Paris Saint Germain | 57.6% | 17.3% | 25.1% | 2.87 | 1.92 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Lens vs Manchester City | 36.9% | 22.1% | 41.0% | 1.72 | 1.82 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Manchester United vs Bayern München | 59.3% | 17.9% | 22.7% | 2.65 | 1.64 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk | 50.9% | 23.6% | 25.5% | 1.75 | 1.17 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Sporting CP vs Barcelona | 48.8% | 18.8% | 32.3% | 2.53 | 2.07 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Viking vs PSV Eindhoven | 48.0% | 22.4% | 29.6% | 1.88 | 1.44 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Arsenal vs Sabah FA | 73.6% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 2.75 | 1.02 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | AS Roma vs Lille | 71.7% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 3.08 | 1.37 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahçe | 75.0% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 2.88 | 1.05 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Barcelona vs Como | 65.7% | 15.7% | 18.6% | 3.07 | 1.67 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Bayern München vs Real Betis | 60.8% | 17.6% | 21.7% | 2.71 | 1.62 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Club Brugge KV vs Bodo/Glimt | 71.7% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 3.24 | 1.48 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC | 69.5% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 2.93 | 1.36 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Feyenoord vs RB Leipzig | 66.6% | 16.2% | 17.3% | 2.87 | 1.46 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Lask Linz vs FC Porto | 49.0% | 18.5% | 32.5% | 2.62 | 2.15 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Liverpool vs Lens | 65.3% | 16.2% | 18.6% | 2.93 | 1.58 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Manchester City vs Sporting CP | 50.0% | 19.6% | 30.4% | 2.37 | 1.84 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Napoli vs Viking | 60.0% | 18.2% | 21.8% | 2.57 | 1.53 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Paris Saint Germain vs Galatasaray | 72.4% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 3.60 | 1.72 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | PSV Eindhoven vs VfB Stuttgart | 40.4% | 23.2% | 36.4% | 1.67 | 1.57 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid | 52.8% | 19.1% | 28.1% | 2.47 | 1.80 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa | 38.7% | 19.8% | 41.5% | 2.13 | 2.21 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Slovan Bratislava vs Inter | 39.8% | 21.5% | 38.6% | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Villarreal vs Manchester United | 68.0% | 16.3% | 15.8% | 2.76 | 1.30 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart | 21.3% | 24.4% | 54.3% | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP | 40.9% | 26.4% | 32.7% | 1.09 | 1.21 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München | 54.2% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Barcelona vs Aston Villa | 36.8% | 27.0% | 36.2% | 1.21 | 1.38 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Bodo/Glimt vs Lille | 68.6% | 21.6% | 9.9% | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Feyenoord vs Inter | 61.5% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Lask Linz vs Slovan Bratislava | 61.8% | 23.1% | 15.1% | 0.82 | 0.61 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Manchester United vs AS Roma | 54.2% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain | 26.3% | 25.3% | 48.4% | 1.03 | 1.38 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid | 26.3% | 25.3% | 48.4% | 1.03 | 1.38 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool | 15.5% | 23.1% | 61.4% | 0.81 | 1.38 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis | 36.8% | 27.0% | 36.2% | 1.21 | 1.38 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | FC Porto vs Napoli | 34.5% | 26.7% | 38.9% | 0.61 | 0.82 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Lens vs Como | 36.8% | 27.0% | 36.2% | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV | 31.9% | 26.2% | 41.8% | 0.95 | 1.21 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | RB Leipzig vs Manchester City | 36.8% | 27.0% | 36.2% | 1.03 | 1.21 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Slavia Praha vs Arsenal | 17.9% | 23.7% | 58.4% | 0.71 | 1.22 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Viking vs Sabah FA | 45.8% | 25.7% | 28.5% | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Bodo/Glimt vs Lask Linz | 55.5% | 24.2% | 20.3% | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Galatasaray vs Aston Villa | 15.8% | 23.2% | 61.0% | 0.82 | 1.38 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund | 58.9% | 23.6% | 17.5% | 1.26 | 1.10 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Como vs AEK Athens FC | 73.5% | 20.2% | 6.4% | 1.27 | 0.76 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Feyenoord vs FC Porto | 68.6% | 21.6% | 9.9% | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Manchester City vs Napoli | 65.1% | 22.4% | 12.5% | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | RB Leipzig vs Lens | 55.5% | 24.2% | 20.3% | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven | 72.0% | 20.6% | 7.4% | 1.44 | 0.99 |
| 24 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis | 10.1% | 21.7% | 68.2% | 0.67 | 1.38 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Sabah FA vs Barcelona | 36.8% | 27.0% | 36.2% | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Slavia Praha vs Villarreal | 45.0% | 25.8% | 29.2% | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Atletico Madrid vs Viking | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.09 | 0.65 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool | 30.6% | 26.0% | 43.3% | 1.10 | 1.38 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Inter vs VfB Stuttgart | 27.2% | 25.4% | 47.4% | 0.93 | 1.26 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Lille vs Bayern München | 23.6% | 24.8% | 51.6% | 0.61 | 1.01 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma | 73.1% | 20.3% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 0.95 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe | 67.0% | 22.0% | 11.1% | 1.09 | 0.76 |
| 25 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Sporting CP vs Manchester United | 67.6% | 21.8% | 10.6% | 1.10 | 0.76 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Viking vs Feyenoord | 49.7% | 25.1% | 25.2% | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Villarreal vs Sabah FA | 61.5% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | AEK Athens FC vs Galatasaray | 55.5% | 24.2% | 20.3% | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | AS Roma vs Sporting CP | 34.2% | 26.6% | 39.2% | 0.99 | 1.21 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain | 53.1% | 24.6% | 22.3% | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Barcelona vs Manchester City | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Bayern München vs Slavia Praha | 69.9% | 21.2% | 8.9% | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Manchester United vs RB Leipzig | 64.4% | 22.5% | 13.1% | 1.03 | 0.76 |
| 08 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Napoli vs Club Brugge KV | 30.6% | 26.0% | 43.3% | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Real Betis vs Como | 71.6% | 20.7% | 7.7% | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk | 34.7% | 26.7% | 38.6% | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Arsenal vs Real Madrid | 40.9% | 26.4% | 32.7% | 1.26 | 1.38 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Borussia Dortmund vs Inter | 69.3% | 21.4% | 9.3% | 1.21 | 0.82 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Lask Linz vs Fenerbahçe | 52.8% | 24.6% | 22.5% | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Lens vs Bodo/Glimt | 52.8% | 24.6% | 22.6% | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Liverpool vs FC Porto | 79.9% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 1.44 | 0.67 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid | 53.7% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| 09 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | VfB Stuttgart vs Lille | 74.8% | 19.7% | 5.5% | 1.22 | 0.67 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Bodo/Glimt vs Atletico Madrid | 58.5% | 23.7% | 17.8% | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Galatasaray vs Feyenoord | 52.8% | 24.6% | 22.6% | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | AEK Athens FC vs AS Roma | 54.2% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund | 67.6% | 21.8% | 10.6% | 1.44 | 1.10 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | FC Porto vs Slavia Praha | 42.6% | 26.1% | 31.3% | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Inter vs Liverpool | 20.8% | 24.3% | 55.0% | 0.93 | 1.38 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Lille vs Slovan Bratislava | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Real Madrid vs Lask Linz | 73.8% | 20.0% | 6.2% | 1.44 | 0.93 |
| 19 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | VfB Stuttgart vs Club Brugge KV | 49.8% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal | 52.4% | 24.7% | 22.9% | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Sabah FA vs Napoli | 55.8% | 24.1% | 20.1% | 0.93 | 0.82 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Real Betis vs Arsenal | 62.4% | 22.9% | 14.6% | 1.44 | 1.22 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Como vs Paris Saint Germain | 41.3% | 26.3% | 32.4% | 1.27 | 1.38 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Lens vs Manchester City | 24.5% | 25.0% | 50.6% | 0.82 | 1.21 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Manchester United vs Bayern München | 50.5% | 25.0% | 24.6% | 1.03 | 1.01 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk | 58.5% | 23.7% | 17.8% | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Sporting CP vs Barcelona | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| 20 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 7 | Viking vs PSV Eindhoven | 34.6% | 26.7% | 38.8% | 0.77 | 0.99 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Arsenal vs Sabah FA | 71.5% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | AS Roma vs Lille | 66.8% | 22.0% | 11.2% | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahçe | 67.0% | 22.0% | 11.1% | 1.09 | 0.76 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Barcelona vs Como | 61.5% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Bayern München vs Real Betis | 30.4% | 26.0% | 43.6% | 1.10 | 1.38 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Club Brugge KV vs Bodo/Glimt | 67.6% | 21.8% | 10.6% | 1.10 | 0.76 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.21 | 0.76 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Feyenoord vs RB Leipzig | 64.4% | 22.5% | 13.1% | 1.03 | 0.76 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Lask Linz vs FC Porto | 58.6% | 23.6% | 17.7% | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Liverpool vs Lens | 73.8% | 20.0% | 6.2% | 1.44 | 0.93 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Manchester City vs Sporting CP | 42.0% | 26.2% | 31.8% | 1.10 | 1.21 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Napoli vs Viking | 65.1% | 22.4% | 12.5% | 0.93 | 0.65 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Paris Saint Germain vs Galatasaray | 73.8% | 20.0% | 6.2% | 1.44 | 0.93 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | PSV Eindhoven vs VfB Stuttgart | 28.5% | 25.7% | 45.9% | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid | 29.7% | 25.9% | 44.4% | 1.09 | 1.38 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa | 11.4% | 22.0% | 66.6% | 0.71 | 1.38 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Slovan Bratislava vs Inter | 38.2% | 26.8% | 35.0% | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| 27 Jan 2027 | League Stage - 8 | Villarreal vs Manchester United | 64.4% | 22.5% | 13.1% | 1.03 | 0.76 |