Europe Conference League race map
Europe Conference League Season Predictor 2026-2027
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 5 | 6 | 14.1 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| Panathinaikos | 1 | 6 | 13.4 | 17.4% | 15.0% | 19.7% |
| FC Lugano | 3 | 6 | 13.0 | 12.2% | 11.4% | 13.0% |
| Twente | 6 | 6 | 13.7 | 12.1% | 13.8% | 10.3% |
| Brann | 2 | 6 | 13.0 | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% |
| Monaco | 4 | 6 | 13.3 | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.8% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 5 | 1.0 | 58.8% | 20.5% | +1.6 |
| Panathinaikos | 1 | 1.0 | 50.3% | 17.4% | +1.1 |
| Twente | 6 | 1.5 | 48.7% | 12.1% | +1.3 |
| Monaco | 4 | 2.0 | 43.3% | 9.7% | +1.8 |
| FC Lugano | 3 | 1.0 | 42.3% | 12.2% | +1.0 |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 8 | 2.5 | 39.3% | 8.1% | +2.1 |
| Brann | 2 | 3.0 | 39.0% | 9.9% | +0.7 |
| St. Truiden | 7 | 5.0 | 22.7% | 4.4% | +0.3 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris | 36 | 0 | 36.0 | 32.3% | 33.1% | 31.4% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC | 35 | 0 | 36.0 | 32.3% | 27.1% | 37.4% |
| KuPS | 34 | 0 | 36.0 | 21.8% | 20.5% | 23.0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 33 | 0 | 36.0 | 20.5% | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| Kairat Almaty | 31 | 1 | 35.0 | 18.8% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| FC Thun | 32 | 0 | 34.0 | 13.7% | 11.1% | 16.3% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | 2 | 8 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 60.0 |
| Brann | 1 | 5 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 40.0 |
| SC Freiburg | 25 | 21 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 40.0 |
| Brighton | 9 | 11 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 20.0 |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 26 | 24 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 20.0 |
| CSKA Sofia | 28 | 26 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 20.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split | 05 Nov 2026 | 90.6 | 19.4% | 22.9% | 57.8% | Lincoln Red Imps FC: Bottom Finish 32.3% | HNK Hajduk Split: Top 4 39.3% |
| FC Lugano vs St. Truiden | 17 Dec 2026 | 89.4 | 45.7% | 24.7% | 29.8% | FC Lugano: Top 4 42.3% | St. Truiden: Top 4 22.7% |
| Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps FC | 17 Dec 2026 | 89.0 | 70.3% | 19.3% | 10.4% | Monaco: Top 4 43.3% | Lincoln Red Imps FC: Bottom Finish 32.3% |
| HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden | 26 Nov 2026 | 87.0 | 44.5% | 26.1% | 29.4% | HNK Hajduk Split: Top 4 39.3% | St. Truiden: Top 4 22.7% |
| St. Truiden vs Brann | 05 Nov 2026 | 86.5 | 45.0% | 24.8% | 30.2% | St. Truiden: Top 4 22.7% | Brann: Top 4 39.0% |
| FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris | 05 Nov 2026 | 86.3 | 73.9% | 17.2% | 8.9% | FC Lugano: Top 4 42.3% | Kauno Žalgiris: Bottom Finish 32.3% |
| FK Crvena Zvezda vs Trabzonspor | 17 Dec 2026 | 85.3 | 25.8% | 22.5% | 51.9% | FK Crvena Zvezda: Projection 0.0% | Trabzonspor: Top 4 58.8% |
| CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor | 26 Nov 2026 | 84.8 | 22.7% | 22.3% | 55.0% | CSKA Sofia: Projection 0.0% | Trabzonspor: Top 4 58.8% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Conference League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (35-36) | Form Bottom Finish (35-36) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 12.8 | 13.9 | 1 | 1 | 15.0% | 19.7% | 46.5% | 54.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Brann | 6 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 1 | 5 | 10.8% | 9.0% | 39.5% | 38.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | FC Lugano | 6 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 1 | 1 | 11.4% | 13.0% | 39.6% | 45.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Monaco | 6 | 12.4 | 14.2 | 2 | 2 | 8.6% | 10.8% | 36.0% | 50.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 6 | 13.3 | 14.9 | 1 | 1 | 17.0% | 23.9% | 51.1% | 66.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Twente | 6 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 1 | 2 | 13.8% | 10.3% | 45.7% | 51.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 6 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 2 | 8 | 6.2% | 2.6% | 26.6% | 18.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 6 | 12.3 | 14.4 | 2 | 3 | 6.7% | 9.4% | 30.4% | 48.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Brighton | 4 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 9 | 11 | 2.8% | 0.2% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10 | 11 | 2.8% | 0.5% | 17.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Mjallby AIF | 4 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 10 | 11 | 2.1% | 0.3% | 15.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Universitatea Craiova | 4 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 10 | 11 | 1.5% | 0.3% | 11.3% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Ajax | 3 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 14 | 13 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 13 | 14 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Atalanta | 3 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 15 | 14 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Gent | 3 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 15 | 15 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 15 | 14 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 25 | 21 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| 19 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 16 | 17 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 20 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 26 | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 16 | 17 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 22 | Aarhus | 1 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 29 | 28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 28 | 26 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| 24 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 29 | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% |
| 25 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 29 | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% |
| 26 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 29 | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| 27 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 30 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% |
| 28 | Pafos | 1 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 30 | 28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% |
| 29 | Saburtalo | 1 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 30 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 3.7% |
| 30 | Getafe | 1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 30 | 28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 9.7% | 5.7% |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 35 | 35 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| 32 | FC Thun | 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 33 | 35 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 16.3% |
| 33 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 36 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.0% | 22.0% |
| 34 | KuPS | 0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 36 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.5% | 23.0% |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 36 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.1% | 37.4% |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 36 | 36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.1% | 31.4% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Aarhus vs SC Braga | 50.5% | 24.8% | 24.7% | 1.62 | 1.05 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty | 53.1% | 22.5% | 24.4% | 1.89 | 1.21 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes | 53.1% | 22.4% | 24.5% | 1.89 | 1.22 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | KuPS vs Gent | 42.0% | 23.8% | 34.3% | 1.64 | 1.46 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split | 26.9% | 23.6% | 49.5% | 1.23 | 1.74 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Midtjylland vs Ajax | 39.5% | 26.7% | 33.9% | 1.33 | 1.21 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka | 52.3% | 24.1% | 23.5% | 1.69 | 1.05 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian | 43.6% | 27.7% | 28.7% | 1.32 | 1.02 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg | 64.0% | 19.8% | 16.2% | 2.14 | 0.98 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Copenhagen vs Saburtalo | 62.1% | 21.2% | 16.7% | 1.97 | 0.91 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Getafe vs Brighton | 29.2% | 23.5% | 47.3% | 1.32 | 1.74 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris | 70.2% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 2.75 | 1.19 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland | 55.4% | 22.9% | 21.7% | 1.82 | 1.05 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia | 52.7% | 21.7% | 25.6% | 1.99 | 1.33 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Riga vs FK Jablonec | 46.3% | 24.0% | 29.8% | 1.67 | 1.30 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | St. Truiden vs Brann | 41.0% | 24.4% | 34.6% | 1.55 | 1.41 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Twente vs Pafos | 57.6% | 22.3% | 20.1% | 1.88 | 1.02 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 44.1% | 25.7% | 30.1% | 1.48 | 1.18 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Kairat Almaty vs Mjallby AIF | 27.7% | 22.6% | 49.8% | 1.34 | 1.87 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Ajax vs FC Thun | 53.2% | 25.5% | 21.3% | 1.55 | 0.88 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Brann vs Aarhus | 53.1% | 24.2% | 22.8% | 1.69 | 1.02 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova | 51.3% | 22.8% | 25.9% | 1.84 | 1.24 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps FC | 49.3% | 24.1% | 26.6% | 1.69 | 1.18 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Heart Of Midlothian vs Monaco | 33.9% | 25.4% | 40.7% | 1.30 | 1.45 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Saburtalo vs Getafe | 43.5% | 25.2% | 31.3% | 1.52 | 1.25 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | FK Jablonec vs FC Lugano | 32.3% | 23.1% | 44.6% | 1.46 | 1.75 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga | 29.4% | 23.3% | 47.3% | 1.34 | 1.76 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Pafos vs FC Midtjylland | 41.1% | 26.3% | 32.7% | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta | 55.2% | 23.6% | 21.1% | 1.74 | 0.98 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | SC Braga vs KuPS | 57.4% | 22.7% | 19.8% | 1.83 | 0.98 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor | 30.7% | 21.7% | 47.5% | 1.56 | 1.97 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | SC Freiburg vs Twente | 31.9% | 21.6% | 46.4% | 1.62 | 1.98 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Gent vs FK Crvena Zvezda | 48.6% | 23.9% | 27.6% | 1.71 | 1.23 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden | 40.0% | 27.0% | 33.0% | 1.32 | 1.17 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Inter Club d'Escaldes vs FC Copenhagen | 30.9% | 22.7% | 46.5% | 1.46 | 1.83 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | FC Nordsjaelland vs Panathinaikos | 28.6% | 21.0% | 50.3% | 1.55 | 2.10 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Kairat Almaty vs Universitatea Craiova | 22.4% | 19.6% | 57.9% | 1.39 | 2.30 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Brann vs SC Braga | 60.0% | 21.0% | 19.0% | 2.03 | 1.05 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | FC Copenhagen vs FC Lugano | 46.1% | 21.3% | 32.7% | 2.03 | 1.69 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | SC Freiburg vs Panathinaikos | 29.4% | 20.4% | 50.3% | 1.67 | 2.21 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Getafe vs Inter Club d'Escaldes | 44.4% | 22.4% | 33.2% | 1.84 | 1.57 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Saburtalo vs FK Crvena Zvezda | 44.5% | 23.5% | 32.0% | 1.71 | 1.41 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | KuPS vs CSKA Sofia | 35.5% | 21.7% | 42.8% | 1.74 | 1.92 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Lincoln Red Imps FC vs FC Midtjylland | 32.6% | 24.0% | 43.4% | 1.39 | 1.64 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Riga vs Atalanta | 48.0% | 25.3% | 26.7% | 1.55 | 1.09 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Trabzonspor vs FK Jablonec | 57.4% | 21.3% | 21.3% | 2.03 | 1.16 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Aarhus vs Twente | 30.2% | 24.1% | 45.7% | 1.30 | 1.65 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Brighton vs Monaco | 51.5% | 23.3% | 25.1% | 1.78 | 1.17 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Kauno Žalgiris | 60.5% | 21.1% | 18.4% | 2.01 | 1.02 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | HNK Hajduk Split vs FC Nordsjaelland | 47.3% | 24.7% | 27.9% | 1.60 | 1.17 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Heart Of Midlothian vs Borac Banja Luka | 42.0% | 25.6% | 32.4% | 1.46 | 1.25 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Mjallby AIF vs Pafos | 58.5% | 21.9% | 19.6% | 1.92 | 1.02 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | St. Truiden vs Ajax | 53.2% | 24.1% | 22.6% | 1.69 | 1.01 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | FC Thun vs Gent | 42.5% | 28.1% | 29.4% | 1.28 | 1.02 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Ajax vs Getafe | 53.0% | 23.6% | 23.5% | 1.75 | 1.09 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Atalanta vs Mjallby AIF | 46.0% | 24.5% | 29.5% | 1.62 | 1.25 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Borac Banja Luka vs Riga | 48.9% | 25.4% | 25.7% | 1.55 | 1.05 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | SC Braga vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 46.9% | 25.7% | 27.4% | 1.51 | 1.09 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FK Crvena Zvezda vs Trabzonspor | 33.7% | 21.2% | 45.1% | 1.74 | 2.02 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun | 43.7% | 26.2% | 30.1% | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Gent vs Brann | 33.8% | 24.9% | 41.3% | 1.34 | 1.51 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Aarhus | 37.5% | 26.0% | 36.5% | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FK Jablonec vs Saburtalo | 48.1% | 26.9% | 25.0% | 1.42 | 0.94 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Kauno Žalgiris vs SC Freiburg | 40.1% | 22.9% | 37.1% | 1.71 | 1.63 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FC Lugano vs St. Truiden | 42.3% | 24.1% | 33.7% | 1.61 | 1.41 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FC Midtjylland vs HNK Hajduk Split | 32.6% | 28.3% | 39.1% | 1.08 | 1.21 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps FC | 63.0% | 20.0% | 17.0% | 2.14 | 1.02 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FC Nordsjaelland vs KuPS | 53.5% | 22.5% | 24.0% | 1.89 | 1.20 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Pafos vs Heart Of Midlothian | 48.3% | 25.3% | 26.4% | 1.55 | 1.08 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Panathinaikos vs Brighton | 45.1% | 25.9% | 29.0% | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Twente vs Kairat Almaty | 53.8% | 23.9% | 22.3% | 1.72 | 1.02 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Universitatea Craiova vs FC Copenhagen | 42.3% | 24.1% | 33.6% | 1.61 | 1.41 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Aarhus vs SC Braga | 44.0% | 25.9% | 30.1% | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty | 65.7% | 22.3% | 12.1% | 1.14 | 0.85 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes | 58.2% | 23.7% | 18.1% | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | KuPS vs Gent | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split | 11.8% | 22.2% | 66.0% | 0.70 | 1.36 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Midtjylland vs Ajax | 38.8% | 26.7% | 34.5% | 0.77 | 0.92 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka | 65.7% | 22.3% | 12.1% | 1.21 | 0.92 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian | 44.0% | 25.9% | 30.1% | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 0.92 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Copenhagen vs Saburtalo | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.21 | 0.77 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Getafe vs Brighton | 29.6% | 25.9% | 44.5% | 0.77 | 1.07 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris | 77.6% | 18.6% | 3.8% | 1.36 | 0.70 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 0.92 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia | 73.8% | 20.1% | 6.2% | 1.36 | 0.85 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Riga vs FK Jablonec | 58.2% | 23.7% | 18.1% | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | St. Truiden vs Brann | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Twente vs Pafos | 75.8% | 19.3% | 4.9% | 1.36 | 0.77 |
| 05 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 3 | Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 58.2% | 23.7% | 18.1% | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Kairat Almaty vs Mjallby AIF | 29.6% | 25.9% | 44.5% | 0.77 | 1.07 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Ajax vs FC Thun | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.14 | 0.70 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Brann vs Aarhus | 75.8% | 19.3% | 4.9% | 1.36 | 0.77 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps FC | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Heart Of Midlothian vs Monaco | 17.8% | 23.7% | 58.6% | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Saburtalo vs Getafe | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | FK Jablonec vs FC Lugano | 17.8% | 23.7% | 58.6% | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Pafos vs FC Midtjylland | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | SC Braga vs KuPS | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.14 | 0.70 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor | 14.6% | 22.9% | 62.5% | 0.77 | 1.36 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | SC Freiburg vs Twente | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Gent vs FK Crvena Zvezda | 68.7% | 21.5% | 9.7% | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | HNK Hajduk Split vs St. Truiden | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | Inter Club d'Escaldes vs FC Copenhagen | 25.4% | 25.1% | 49.5% | 0.70 | 1.07 |
| 26 Nov 2026 | League Stage - 4 | FC Nordsjaelland vs Panathinaikos | 21.4% | 24.4% | 54.2% | 0.92 | 1.36 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Kairat Almaty vs Universitatea Craiova | 21.4% | 24.4% | 54.2% | 0.77 | 1.21 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Brann vs SC Braga | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 0.92 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | FC Copenhagen vs FC Lugano | 38.8% | 26.7% | 34.5% | 1.21 | 1.36 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | SC Freiburg vs Panathinaikos | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Getafe vs Inter Club d'Escaldes | 53.8% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Saburtalo vs FK Crvena Zvezda | 53.8% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | KuPS vs CSKA Sofia | 38.8% | 26.7% | 34.5% | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Lincoln Red Imps FC vs FC Midtjylland | 38.8% | 26.7% | 34.5% | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Riga vs Atalanta | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Trabzonspor vs FK Jablonec | 75.8% | 19.3% | 4.9% | 1.36 | 0.77 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Aarhus vs Twente | 17.8% | 23.7% | 58.6% | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Brighton vs Monaco | 38.8% | 26.7% | 34.5% | 1.21 | 1.36 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Kauno Žalgiris | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | HNK Hajduk Split vs FC Nordsjaelland | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 0.92 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Heart Of Midlothian vs Borac Banja Luka | 44.0% | 25.9% | 30.1% | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | Mjallby AIF vs Pafos | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.21 | 0.77 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | St. Truiden vs Ajax | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 0.92 |
| 10 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 5 | FC Thun vs Gent | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Ajax vs Getafe | 65.7% | 22.3% | 12.1% | 1.14 | 0.85 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Atalanta vs Mjallby AIF | 53.8% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Borac Banja Luka vs Riga | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | SC Braga vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FK Crvena Zvezda vs Trabzonspor | 17.8% | 23.7% | 58.6% | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | CSKA Sofia vs FC Thun | 53.8% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Gent vs Brann | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Aarhus | 44.0% | 25.9% | 30.1% | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FK Jablonec vs Saburtalo | 53.8% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Kauno Žalgiris vs SC Freiburg | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FC Lugano vs St. Truiden | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FC Midtjylland vs HNK Hajduk Split | 14.6% | 22.9% | 62.5% | 0.77 | 1.36 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps FC | 77.6% | 18.6% | 3.8% | 1.36 | 0.70 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | FC Nordsjaelland vs KuPS | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Pafos vs Heart Of Midlothian | 53.8% | 24.5% | 21.8% | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Panathinaikos vs Brighton | 65.7% | 22.3% | 12.1% | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Twente vs Kairat Almaty | 73.8% | 20.1% | 6.2% | 1.36 | 0.85 |
| 17 Dec 2026 | League Stage - 6 | Universitatea Craiova vs FC Copenhagen | 49.0% | 25.2% | 25.8% | 1.07 | 1.07 |