Switzerland Super League race map

Switzerland Super League Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite FC Lugano
94.0% average title probability
Main Danger Team Lausanne
88.9% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split FC Vaduz
Gap score 20.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

3 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

3 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
FC Lugano 1 31 55.3 94.0% 92.1% 95.9%
BSC Young Boys 3 25 46.2 5.7% 7.5% 3.8%
FC Sion 2 26 41.0 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
FC ST. Gallen 4 19 33.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FC Zurich 5 17 32.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Servette FC 6 16 29.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Lausanne 12 6 12.0 88.9% 84.5% 93.3%
Grasshoppers 9 11 11.0 53.7% 59.4% 47.9%
FC Thun 11 10 10.0 31.3% 34.2% 28.4%
FC Vaduz 10 10 9.5 16.2% 9.4% 23.0%
FC Luzern 8 13 8.5 7.6% 8.7% 6.5%
FC Basel 1893 7 15 7.0 1.4% 2.0% 0.7%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
FC Vaduz 9 10 24.9 20.9 20.0
FC Zurich 4 4 31.0 33.5 14.2
Lausanne 12 12 16.0 13.6 12.0
Grasshoppers 11 11 19.6 19.3 11.5
FC ST. Gallen 4 4 32.0 34.1 10.5
Servette FC 5 6 29.7 29.9 10.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys 29 Nov 2026 223.6 36.1% 23.7% 40.3% FC Sion: Top 4 96.9% | BSC Young Boys: Top 4 99.8%
BSC Young Boys vs FC Lugano 16 Jan 2027 223.2 29.7% 22.3% 48.1% BSC Young Boys: Top 4 99.8% | FC Lugano: Top 4 100.0%
FC Lugano vs FC Sion 24 Jan 2027 212.4 65.6% 20.3% 14.1% FC Lugano: Top 4 100.0% | FC Sion: Top 4 96.9%
BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne 12 Dec 2026 201.3 72.1% 18.5% 9.4% BSC Young Boys: Top 4 99.8% | Lausanne: Bottom Finish 88.9%
FC Lugano vs Lausanne 30 Jan 2027 199.2 77.2% 17.5% 5.5% FC Lugano: Top 4 100.0% | Lausanne: Bottom Finish 88.9%
Grasshoppers vs Lausanne 07 Nov 2026 166.0 48.0% 26.3% 25.8% Grasshoppers: Bottom Finish 53.7% | Lausanne: Bottom Finish 88.9%
BSC Young Boys vs Grasshoppers 07 Feb 2027 164.9 74.7% 16.5% 8.8% BSC Young Boys: Top 4 99.8% | Grasshoppers: Bottom Finish 53.7%
FC Sion vs Grasshoppers 17 Jan 2027 164.5 69.1% 19.6% 11.3% FC Sion: Top 4 96.9% | Grasshoppers: Bottom Finish 53.7%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Super League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 61
Goal Model Base 1.85 / 1.7
Form Model Base 1.4 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (11-12) Form Bottom Finish (11-12)
1 FC Lugano 31 54.7 55.8 1 1 92.1% 95.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 FC Sion 26 40.2 41.7 3 3 0.4% 0.2% 96.0% 97.7% 0.0% 0.0%
3 BSC Young Boys 25 46.0 46.4 2 2 7.5% 3.8% 99.7% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
4 FC ST. Gallen 19 32.0 34.1 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 36.1% 43.5% 0.3% 0.0%
5 FC Zurich 17 31.0 33.5 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 28.0% 42.2% 0.6% 0.0%
6 Servette FC 16 29.7 29.9 5 6 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 12.6% 0.9% 0.2%
7 FC Basel 1893 15 28.2 27.6 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 3.3% 2.0% 0.7%
8 FC Luzern 13 25.5 24.3 9 8 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.7% 8.7% 6.5%
9 Grasshoppers 11 19.6 19.3 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 59.4% 47.9%
10 FC Vaduz 10 24.9 20.9 9 10 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.1% 9.4% 23.0%
11 FC Thun 10 21.8 20.8 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 34.2% 28.4%
12 Lausanne 6 16.0 13.6 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.5% 93.3%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 BSC Young Boys vs FC Zurich 65.9% 15.6% 18.5% 3.09 1.68
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 Lausanne vs FC Thun 28.1% 21.2% 50.7% 1.50 2.07
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 67.2% 18.0% 14.8% 2.38 1.03
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys 22.1% 18.0% 59.9% 1.59 2.63
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Vaduz vs FC Sion 41.0% 21.0% 38.0% 1.99 1.91
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Grasshoppers vs Lausanne 37.1% 28.9% 34.0% 1.15 1.09
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano 15.9% 16.9% 67.2% 1.23 2.62
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Servette FC vs FC Zurich 50.0% 23.2% 26.8% 1.79 1.25
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 22.8% 20.4% 56.8% 1.33 2.18
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers 79.8% 12.6% 7.6% 2.92 0.82
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun 64.2% 14.9% 20.8% 3.49 2.10
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Sion vs Servette FC 49.2% 23.3% 27.5% 1.77 1.27
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Zurich vs FC ST. Gallen 45.2% 21.4% 33.3% 1.99 1.69
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern 44.6% 23.0% 32.4% 1.76 1.47
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Lausanne vs FC Vaduz 30.9% 23.7% 45.4% 1.36 1.69
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich 58.1% 18.3% 23.5% 2.58 1.63
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Servette FC vs Lausanne 47.9% 30.0% 22.2% 1.22 0.73
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Luzern vs FC Lugano 17.6% 17.4% 65.0% 1.32 2.61
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys 31.2% 20.9% 47.9% 1.68 2.10
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen 26.1% 20.8% 53.1% 1.46 2.14
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Thun vs FC Luzern 34.3% 21.5% 44.2% 1.72 1.97
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Vaduz vs BSC Young Boys 28.6% 18.6% 52.9% 1.92 2.60
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Zurich vs FC Lugano 18.1% 17.0% 64.9% 1.41 2.71
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC 32.9% 24.5% 42.6% 1.35 1.57
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers 51.5% 22.1% 26.4% 1.94 1.33
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz 45.8% 21.3% 32.9% 2.03 1.70
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Zurich vs Grasshoppers 56.5% 20.2% 23.3% 2.22 1.38
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne 63.3% 20.1% 16.6% 2.11 0.98
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Luzern vs Servette FC 40.3% 23.1% 36.6% 1.68 1.59
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Lugano vs FC Thun 77.1% 12.4% 10.6% 3.37 1.28
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 48.4% 23.1% 28.5% 1.79 1.33
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Grasshoppers vs FC Luzern 39.5% 22.6% 37.9% 1.72 1.68
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen 27.3% 24.5% 48.2% 1.17 1.63
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich 40.4% 22.8% 36.7% 1.72 1.63
20 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Thun vs FC Sion 17.7% 17.7% 64.5% 1.29 2.54
20 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Servette FC vs BSC Young Boys 25.6% 21.7% 52.7% 1.33 1.99
20 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Vaduz vs FC Lugano 22.9% 18.3% 58.8% 1.60 2.58
16 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Basel 1893 vs FC Vaduz 40.5% 22.6% 37.0% 1.75 1.67
16 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 Servette FC vs FC Thun 48.4% 21.5% 30.1% 2.02 1.56
16 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 BSC Young Boys vs FC Lugano 27.7% 18.3% 54.0% 1.92 2.66
17 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Zurich vs Lausanne 50.2% 25.4% 24.4% 1.56 1.00
17 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Luzern vs FC ST. Gallen 43.8% 22.1% 34.1% 1.87 1.63
17 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Sion vs Grasshoppers 63.1% 19.6% 17.3% 2.20 1.06
23 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Thun vs FC Zurich 30.0% 20.6% 49.4% 1.67 2.17
23 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Vaduz vs FC Luzern 62.5% 17.6% 19.9% 2.65 1.48
23 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 Grasshoppers vs Servette FC 28.4% 23.1% 48.5% 1.32 1.79
24 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 24.2% 24.4% 51.4% 1.06 1.66
24 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Lugano vs FC Sion 62.1% 19.2% 18.7% 2.31 1.20
24 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys 20.0% 17.6% 62.4% 1.48 2.65
30 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 Grasshoppers vs FC Thun 32.1% 19.8% 48.2% 1.89 2.32
30 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Lugano vs Lausanne 71.4% 18.9% 9.8% 2.05 0.60
30 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys 17.0% 17.3% 65.6% 1.28 2.59
31 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen 53.0% 21.8% 25.2% 1.97 1.30
31 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Luzern vs FC Zurich 49.0% 20.8% 30.2% 2.14 1.66
31 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Vaduz vs Servette FC 48.5% 21.4% 30.1% 2.03 1.57
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Lausanne vs FC Luzern 34.7% 24.9% 40.4% 1.37 1.50
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Thun vs FC Vaduz 29.9% 20.3% 49.8% 1.71 2.22
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 36.5% 23.2% 40.3% 1.58 1.67
07 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Zurich vs FC Sion 34.3% 21.2% 44.4% 1.75 2.01
07 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Servette FC vs FC Lugano 20.9% 21.6% 57.4% 1.11 1.98
07 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 BSC Young Boys vs Grasshoppers 70.9% 14.8% 14.2% 3.01 1.35

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 BSC Young Boys vs FC Zurich 68.7% 21.5% 9.8% 1.40 1.04
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 Lausanne vs FC Thun 30.4% 26.0% 43.6% 0.54 0.82
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 12 FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 76.6% 19.0% 4.4% 1.61 0.99
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys 21.9% 24.5% 53.6% 0.95 1.38
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Vaduz vs FC Sion 27.3% 25.5% 47.3% 0.90 1.23
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Grasshoppers vs Lausanne 58.8% 23.6% 17.6% 0.73 0.57
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano 15.7% 23.2% 61.1% 1.10 1.66
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Servette FC vs FC Zurich 53.2% 24.6% 22.2% 1.10 1.04
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 26.2% 25.3% 48.5% 0.64 0.99
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers 82.2% 16.1% 1.7% 1.61 0.70
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 BSC Young Boys vs FC Thun 75.6% 19.4% 5.0% 1.40 0.82
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Sion vs Servette FC 65.7% 22.2% 12.0% 1.26 0.97
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Zurich vs FC ST. Gallen 57.3% 23.9% 18.8% 1.20 1.07
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern 54.5% 24.3% 21.1% 0.81 0.72
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Lausanne vs FC Vaduz 42.0% 26.2% 31.8% 0.54 0.64
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich 39.5% 26.6% 33.9% 0.90 1.04
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Servette FC vs Lausanne 74.1% 19.9% 5.9% 1.10 0.57
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Luzern vs FC Lugano 10.2% 21.7% 68.1% 0.95 1.66
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Sion vs BSC Young Boys 40.9% 26.4% 32.7% 1.26 1.38
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen 21.9% 24.5% 53.6% 0.64 1.07
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Thun vs FC Luzern 43.5% 26.0% 30.5% 0.64 0.72
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Vaduz vs BSC Young Boys 19.3% 24.0% 56.7% 0.90 1.38
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Zurich vs FC Lugano 20.3% 24.2% 55.5% 1.20 1.66
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC 37.6% 26.8% 35.5% 0.81 0.97
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC ST. Gallen vs Grasshoppers 70.0% 21.2% 8.8% 1.10 0.70
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz 72.1% 20.6% 7.3% 1.10 0.64
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Zurich vs Grasshoppers 73.3% 20.2% 6.5% 1.20 0.70
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 BSC Young Boys vs Lausanne 80.9% 16.9% 2.2% 1.40 0.57
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Luzern vs Servette FC 47.9% 25.4% 26.7% 0.95 0.97
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Lugano vs FC Thun 80.2% 17.3% 2.5% 1.61 0.82
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 64.7% 22.5% 12.8% 1.26 0.99
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Grasshoppers vs FC Luzern 49.8% 25.1% 25.1% 0.73 0.72
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen 17.1% 23.5% 59.4% 0.54 1.07
19 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich 33.4% 26.5% 40.2% 0.81 1.04
20 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Thun vs FC Sion 14.3% 22.9% 62.9% 0.64 1.23
20 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Servette FC vs BSC Young Boys 30.4% 26.0% 43.6% 1.10 1.38
20 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 FC Vaduz vs FC Lugano 8.7% 21.2% 70.1% 0.90 1.66
16 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Basel 1893 vs FC Vaduz 59.1% 23.6% 17.4% 0.81 0.64
16 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 Servette FC vs FC Thun 65.0% 22.4% 12.6% 1.10 0.82
16 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 BSC Young Boys vs FC Lugano 31.6% 26.2% 42.2% 1.40 1.66
17 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Zurich vs Lausanne 76.8% 18.9% 4.3% 1.20 0.57
17 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Luzern vs FC ST. Gallen 40.9% 26.4% 32.8% 0.95 1.07
17 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 19 FC Sion vs Grasshoppers 75.1% 19.6% 5.3% 1.26 0.70
23 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Thun vs FC Zurich 23.7% 24.8% 51.5% 0.64 1.04
23 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Vaduz vs FC Luzern 60.0% 23.4% 16.6% 0.90 0.72
23 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 Grasshoppers vs Servette FC 33.1% 26.4% 40.5% 0.73 0.97
24 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 20.9% 24.3% 54.8% 0.54 0.99
24 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Lugano vs FC Sion 69.1% 21.4% 9.5% 1.61 1.23
24 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys 30.5% 26.0% 43.5% 1.10 1.38
30 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 Grasshoppers vs FC Thun 42.8% 26.1% 31.1% 0.73 0.82
30 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Lugano vs Lausanne 82.9% 16.0% 1.1% 1.61 0.57
30 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys 15.0% 23.0% 62.0% 0.81 1.38
31 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen 60.8% 23.3% 16.0% 1.26 1.07
31 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Luzern vs FC Zurich 43.2% 26.1% 30.8% 0.95 1.04
31 Jan 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Vaduz vs Servette FC 44.3% 25.9% 29.8% 0.90 0.97
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Lausanne vs FC Luzern 36.5% 27.0% 36.5% 0.54 0.72
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Thun vs FC Vaduz 48.8% 25.2% 26.0% 0.64 0.64
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 56.1% 24.1% 19.8% 1.10 0.99
07 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Zurich vs FC Sion 46.9% 25.5% 27.6% 1.20 1.23
07 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Servette FC vs FC Lugano 15.6% 23.2% 61.2% 1.10 1.66
07 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 BSC Young Boys vs Grasshoppers 78.4% 18.2% 3.4% 1.40 0.70