95.2% average title probability
Switzerland Challenge League race map
Switzerland Challenge League Season Predictor 2026-2027
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
3.1% average title probability
89.0% average relegation risk
Gap score 10.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1 | 28 | 41.0 | 95.2% | 93.6% | 96.7% |
| FC Winterthur | 3 | 21 | 32.6 | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Yverdon Sport | 2 | 22 | 32.6 | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| SC Kriens | 4 | 16 | 24.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 5 | 16 | 24.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Aarau | 6 | 15 | 22.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 95.2% | +1.1 |
| FC Winterthur | 3 | 2.0 | 99.1% | 3.1% | +1.0 |
| Yverdon Sport | 2 | 2.5 | 99.0% | 1.8% | +0.4 |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 5 | 4.0 | 43.2% | 0.0% | +0.4 |
| SC Kriens | 4 | 4.0 | 37.1% | 0.0% | -0.3 |
| FC Aarau | 6 | 6.0 | 14.7% | 0.0% | -0.8 |
| FC WIL 1900 | 8 | 8.0 | 3.6% | 0.0% | -1.5 |
| Étoile Carouge | 7 | 7.5 | 2.5% | 0.0% | -0.8 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 8 | 10.0 | 89.0% | 90.7% | 87.3% |
| Rapperswil | 9 | 11 | 9.0 | 52.9% | 54.2% | 51.6% |
| FC WIL 1900 | 8 | 11 | 8.0 | 28.9% | 24.2% | 33.5% |
| Étoile Carouge | 7 | 13 | 7.5 | 22.9% | 22.6% | 23.2% |
| FC Aarau | 6 | 15 | 6.0 | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 5 | 16 | 4.0 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yverdon Sport | 2 | 3 | 32.4 | 32.8 | 10.0 |
| Étoile Carouge | 8 | 7 | 19.8 | 19.0 | 10.0 |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 4 | 4 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 9.8 |
| FC WIL 1900 | 8 | 8 | 19.7 | 18.2 | 9.3 |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1 | 1 | 40.4 | 41.5 | 5.5 |
| FC Aarau | 6 | 6 | 22.6 | 21.8 | 5.4 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur | 20 Nov 2026 | 220.3 | 50.7% | 24.5% | 24.8% | Yverdon Sport: Top 4 99.0% | FC Winterthur: Top 4 99.1% |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur | 05 Dec 2026 | 215.2 | 64.2% | 22.5% | 13.4% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: Top 4 100.0% | FC Winterthur: Top 4 99.1% |
| Stade Nyonnais vs Yverdon Sport | 18 Dec 2026 | 209.9 | 24.8% | 24.0% | 51.3% | Stade Nyonnais: Bottom Finish 89.0% | Yverdon Sport: Top 4 99.0% |
| Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 06 Nov 2026 | 205.9 | 14.7% | 22.8% | 62.5% | Stade Nyonnais: Bottom Finish 89.0% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: Top 4 100.0% |
| Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil | 13 Dec 2026 | 168.1 | 63.9% | 21.0% | 15.2% | Yverdon Sport: Top 4 99.0% | Rapperswil: Bottom Finish 52.9% |
| FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil | 27 Nov 2026 | 164.5 | 72.3% | 18.2% | 9.5% | FC Winterthur: Top 4 99.1% | Rapperswil: Bottom Finish 52.9% |
| Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC | 08 Nov 2026 | 160.7 | 59.0% | 22.9% | 18.2% | Yverdon Sport: Top 4 99.0% | Neuchatel Xamax FC: Top 4 43.2% |
| FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur | 01 Nov 2026 | 153.6 | 32.4% | 24.5% | 43.2% | FC WIL 1900: Bottom Finish 28.9% | FC Winterthur: Top 4 99.1% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Challenge League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
31
Goal Model Base
1.81 / 1.32
Form Model Base
1.36 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (9-10) | Form Bottom Finish (9-10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 28 | 40.4 | 41.5 | 1 | 1 | 93.6% | 96.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 22 | 32.4 | 32.8 | 2 | 3 | 2.5% | 1.1% | 98.5% | 99.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 21 | 32.1 | 33.1 | 2 | 2 | 3.9% | 2.3% | 98.5% | 99.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 16 | 24.1 | 23.8 | 4 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37.4% | 36.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 16 | 24.7 | 25.1 | 4 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.3% | 48.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 15 | 22.6 | 21.8 | 6 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 13 | 19.8 | 19.0 | 8 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 22.6% | 23.2% |
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 19.7 | 18.2 | 8 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 24.2% | 33.5% |
| 9 | Rapperswil | 11 | 17.4 | 17.3 | 9 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 54.2% | 51.6% |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 8 | 13.9 | 14.1 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 90.7% | 87.3% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur | 39.5% | 23.8% | 36.7% | 1.59 | 1.52 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | SC Kriens vs Rapperswil | 51.0% | 22.5% | 26.6% | 1.89 | 1.31 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 16.5% | 23.1% | 60.3% | 0.79 | 1.76 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 | 57.1% | 19.6% | 23.3% | 2.32 | 1.45 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge | 73.4% | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.35 | 0.74 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC | 57.0% | 22.5% | 20.6% | 1.86 | 1.03 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens | 69.4% | 18.0% | 12.6% | 2.28 | 0.86 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Rapperswil vs FC Aarau | 35.5% | 21.8% | 42.7% | 1.72 | 1.89 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900 | 43.4% | 22.4% | 34.3% | 1.83 | 1.61 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge | 45.4% | 24.7% | 29.9% | 1.59 | 1.24 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur | 51.5% | 23.9% | 24.5% | 1.71 | 1.10 |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | SC Kriens vs FC Aarau | 54.2% | 22.1% | 23.7% | 1.93 | 1.21 |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 21.2% | 28.2% | 50.6% | 0.76 | 1.35 |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil | 69.4% | 16.9% | 13.7% | 2.52 | 1.05 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | FC WIL 1900 vs Yverdon Sport | 34.8% | 22.7% | 42.6% | 1.59 | 1.78 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais | 60.7% | 19.5% | 19.8% | 2.27 | 1.24 |
| 04 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Stade Nyonnais vs SC Kriens | 32.2% | 22.3% | 45.5% | 1.55 | 1.87 |
| 05 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | FC Aarau vs Yverdon Sport | 35.7% | 23.5% | 40.8% | 1.53 | 1.65 |
| 05 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur | 62.4% | 22.8% | 14.8% | 1.76 | 0.72 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Rapperswil vs Neuchatel Xamax FC | 32.7% | 23.2% | 44.0% | 1.47 | 1.73 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | FC WIL 1900 vs Étoile Carouge | 52.8% | 22.7% | 24.4% | 1.85 | 1.19 |
| 11 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Étoile Carouge vs Stade Nyonnais | 60.6% | 21.7% | 17.7% | 1.93 | 0.94 |
| 11 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau | 71.9% | 17.5% | 10.6% | 2.25 | 0.73 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | FC Winterthur vs SC Kriens | 69.0% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 2.60 | 1.13 |
| 13 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC WIL 1900 | 48.3% | 21.1% | 30.6% | 2.07 | 1.63 |
| 13 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil | 58.4% | 20.5% | 21.1% | 2.14 | 1.22 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Rapperswil vs Étoile Carouge | 40.4% | 24.2% | 35.5% | 1.57 | 1.46 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Stade Nyonnais vs Yverdon Sport | 25.0% | 22.9% | 52.1% | 1.20 | 1.83 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | FC WIL 1900 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 23.2% | 24.0% | 52.7% | 1.04 | 1.70 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur | 40.3% | 24.6% | 35.1% | 1.53 | 1.41 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | SC Kriens vs Neuchatel Xamax FC | 50.0% | 24.5% | 25.5% | 1.65 | 1.10 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | FC WIL 1900 vs FC Winterthur | 25.2% | 25.1% | 49.7% | 0.85 | 1.22 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | SC Kriens vs Rapperswil | 59.1% | 23.6% | 17.4% | 1.01 | 0.85 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 12.9% | 22.5% | 64.6% | 0.78 | 1.41 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 | 61.4% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 1.02 | 0.81 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge | 76.0% | 19.2% | 4.8% | 1.42 | 0.82 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC | 60.9% | 23.2% | 15.8% | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs SC Kriens | 75.9% | 19.3% | 4.8% | 1.52 | 0.92 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Rapperswil vs FC Aarau | 48.9% | 25.2% | 25.9% | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Stade Nyonnais vs FC WIL 1900 | 46.8% | 25.5% | 27.7% | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge | 54.0% | 24.4% | 21.6% | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur | 49.9% | 25.1% | 25.1% | 1.23 | 1.22 |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | SC Kriens vs FC Aarau | 61.9% | 23.0% | 15.1% | 1.01 | 0.80 |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 14.9% | 23.0% | 62.2% | 0.83 | 1.41 |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | FC Winterthur vs Rapperswil | 75.2% | 19.5% | 5.3% | 1.42 | 0.85 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | FC WIL 1900 vs Yverdon Sport | 28.4% | 25.7% | 46.0% | 0.85 | 1.16 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 0.90 | 0.68 |
| 04 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Stade Nyonnais vs SC Kriens | 39.1% | 26.6% | 34.3% | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| 05 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | FC Aarau vs Yverdon Sport | 39.1% | 26.6% | 34.3% | 1.02 | 1.16 |
| 05 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Winterthur | 65.9% | 22.2% | 11.9% | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Rapperswil vs Neuchatel Xamax FC | 33.0% | 26.4% | 40.6% | 0.80 | 1.03 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | FC WIL 1900 vs Étoile Carouge | 50.9% | 24.9% | 24.2% | 0.85 | 0.82 |
| 11 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Étoile Carouge vs Stade Nyonnais | 58.6% | 23.7% | 17.8% | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| 11 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Aarau | 78.8% | 18.0% | 3.2% | 1.52 | 0.80 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | FC Winterthur vs SC Kriens | 73.1% | 20.3% | 6.6% | 1.42 | 0.92 |
| 13 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC WIL 1900 | 54.4% | 24.4% | 21.2% | 0.90 | 0.81 |
| 13 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Yverdon Sport vs Rapperswil | 69.3% | 21.4% | 9.3% | 1.23 | 0.85 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Rapperswil vs Étoile Carouge | 47.3% | 25.5% | 27.2% | 0.80 | 0.82 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Stade Nyonnais vs Yverdon Sport | 24.5% | 25.0% | 50.5% | 0.78 | 1.16 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | FC WIL 1900 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 15.5% | 23.2% | 61.3% | 0.85 | 1.41 |
| 18 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur | 35.4% | 26.8% | 37.8% | 1.02 | 1.22 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | SC Kriens vs Neuchatel Xamax FC | 47.6% | 25.4% | 27.0% | 1.01 | 1.03 |