Sweden Superettan race map

Sweden Superettan Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Biggest Model Split Landskrona BoIS
Gap score 30.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

2 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

3 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
GIF Sundsvall 16 19 16.0 81.1% 90.2% 71.9%
Norrby IF 15 19 15.5 65.8% 64.7% 66.9%
IK brage 14 22 14.0 27.8% 22.8% 32.7%
Helsingborg 13 22 12.0 12.8% 10.0% 15.6%
Ljungskile SK 12 22 12.5 11.8% 11.0% 12.6%
Orebro SK 11 25 11.0 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Landskrona BoIS 6 9 43.8 43.6 30.0
IFK Varnamo 9 7 41.9 44.2 20.0
GIF Sundsvall 16 16 23.8 25.1 18.3
Helsingborg 12 12 31.3 29.2 10.5
Ljungskile SK 13 12 30.2 29.0 10.0
IK brage 14 14 29.2 27.2 10.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
IFK Norrkoping vs Varbergs BoIS FC 15 Jun 2026 205.1 61.5% 22.9% 15.7% IFK Norrkoping: Top 4 100.0% | Varbergs BoIS FC: Top 4 87.8%
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF 26 Jul 2026 199.6 21.9% 22.6% 55.6% GIF Sundsvall: Bottom Finish 81.1% | Falkenbergs FF: Top 4 98.5%
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC 07 Nov 2026 187.5 19.1% 22.2% 58.7% GIF Sundsvall: Bottom Finish 81.1% | Varbergs BoIS FC: Top 4 87.8%
IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF 28 Jun 2026 175.8 77.8% 17.1% 5.2% IFK Norrkoping: Top 4 100.0% | Norrby IF: Bottom Finish 65.8%
Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall 20 Jul 2026 165.7 58.2% 22.9% 18.9% Norrby IF: Bottom Finish 65.8% | GIF Sundsvall: Bottom Finish 81.1%
Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC 18 Jul 2026 163.1 48.0% 24.7% 27.3% Oddevold: Top 4 51.9% | Varbergs BoIS FC: Top 4 87.8%
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping 21 Jun 2026 153.7 22.9% 25.7% 51.5% Ostersunds FK: Top 4 31.9% | IFK Norrkoping: Top 4 100.0%
IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF 26 Jun 2026 147.9 25.7% 22.5% 51.9% IK brage: Bottom Finish 27.8% | Falkenbergs FF: Top 4 98.5%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Superettan. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 54
Goal Model Base 1.56 / 1.34
Form Model Base 1.37 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) Form Bottom Finish (15-16)
1 IFK Norrkoping 52 66.6 67.8 1 1 99.6% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Falkenbergs FF 44 54.8 55.5 2 2 0.3% 0.1% 97.7% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Varbergs BoIS FC 41 52.0 51.6 3 3 0.1% 0.0% 87.5% 88.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Oddevold 39 48.2 48.1 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 52.3% 51.4% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Ostersunds FK 37 47.3 46.6 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 35.4% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0%
6 United Nordic 36 43.9 44.8 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0%
7 IFK Varnamo 34 41.9 44.2 9 7 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Osters IF 33 42.9 44.2 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Landskrona BoIS 32 43.8 43.6 6 9 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Sandviken 31 40.3 39.5 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Orebro SK 25 34.9 35.3 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2%
12 Ljungskile SK 22 30.2 29.0 13 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 12.6%
13 Helsingborg 22 31.3 29.2 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 15.6%
14 IK brage 22 29.2 27.2 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 32.7%
15 Norrby IF 19 26.1 25.4 15 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 64.7% 66.9%
16 GIF Sundsvall 19 23.8 25.1 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 90.2% 71.9%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
11 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS 27.0% 24.4% 48.6% 1.17 1.65
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Norrby IF vs Oddevold 28.0% 22.8% 49.2% 1.33 1.83
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Falkenbergs FF vs Orebro SK 56.1% 22.2% 21.6% 1.90 1.10
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK 33.3% 29.8% 36.9% 1.02 1.09
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Sandviken vs IK brage 53.8% 22.6% 23.6% 1.87 1.17
15 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF 26.8% 21.5% 51.7% 1.42 2.03
15 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 IFK Norrkoping vs Varbergs BoIS FC 55.0% 24.1% 20.9% 1.69 0.94
16 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic 49.2% 23.0% 27.9% 1.81 1.32
16 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg 47.6% 25.0% 27.4% 1.58 1.13
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 IK brage vs IFK Varnamo 35.4% 20.9% 43.7% 1.85 2.06
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall 64.3% 21.4% 14.4% 1.91 0.77
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Osters IF vs Falkenbergs FF 35.5% 24.5% 40.0% 1.42 1.52
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Norrby IF vs United Nordic 32.8% 23.3% 44.0% 1.46 1.73
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping 23.0% 26.6% 50.4% 0.89 1.46
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK 54.6% 23.0% 22.4% 1.81 1.08
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS 41.0% 25.7% 33.2% 1.43 1.26
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Orebro SK vs Sandviken 28.6% 27.5% 43.9% 1.02 1.34
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF 30.1% 20.5% 49.4% 1.68 2.18
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK 38.8% 25.9% 35.3% 1.37 1.30
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Osters IF 55.9% 21.5% 22.5% 2.00 1.20
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 United Nordic vs Oddevold 35.9% 21.7% 42.3% 1.74 1.90
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK 23.8% 26.3% 49.9% 0.93 1.48
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo 46.8% 22.8% 30.4% 1.82 1.43
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF 73.6% 17.8% 8.6% 2.12 0.57
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Sandviken vs Helsingborg 56.2% 22.6% 21.2% 1.86 1.05
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC 41.2% 25.1% 33.7% 1.49 1.33
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS 40.6% 26.3% 33.0% 1.38 1.22
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Osters IF vs IK brage 48.8% 24.4% 26.8% 1.64 1.16
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 IFK Norrkoping vs Sandviken 61.5% 22.4% 16.1% 1.82 0.81
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 United Nordic vs Orebro SK 43.8% 21.9% 34.3% 1.90 1.67
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 IFK Varnamo vs Ljungskile SK 36.5% 26.2% 37.2% 1.30 1.32
20 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall 61.1% 21.6% 17.2% 1.92 0.91
21 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Falkenbergs FF vs Helsingborg 62.4% 20.9% 16.7% 2.00 0.93
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Helsingborg vs United Nordic 37.4% 24.8% 37.8% 1.45 1.46
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping 19.7% 23.1% 57.2% 0.95 1.79
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken 29.5% 27.3% 43.2% 1.06 1.35
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK 29.9% 27.1% 43.0% 1.08 1.36
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Orebro SK vs Oddevold 31.2% 25.7% 43.1% 1.21 1.47
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Osters IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC 28.2% 25.8% 46.0% 1.11 1.50
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF 19.4% 20.2% 60.4% 1.15 2.16
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 IFK Varnamo vs IK brage 45.1% 24.7% 30.3% 1.59 1.26
07 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 22 Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK 32.2% 30.2% 37.6% 0.98 1.09
20 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK 72.6% 16.8% 10.6% 2.36 0.78
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK 49.4% 25.6% 25.1% 1.54 1.02
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Osters IF vs Helsingborg 51.2% 24.6% 24.2% 1.63 1.04
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK 51.0% 23.1% 25.9% 1.81 1.23
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 IK brage vs Norrby IF 46.0% 24.1% 29.9% 1.66 1.29
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF 30.3% 23.9% 45.7% 1.32 1.67
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS 26.8% 25.1% 48.1% 1.11 1.58
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Orebro SK vs Osters IF 37.9% 24.4% 37.7% 1.49 1.49
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold 47.0% 25.2% 27.8% 1.56 1.14
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandviken vs United Nordic 47.7% 23.2% 29.1% 1.77 1.34
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC 14.8% 19.6% 65.5% 0.90 2.13
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping 14.2% 20.8% 65.0% 0.79 1.96

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
11 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 11 Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS 23.0% 24.7% 52.3% 0.75 1.16
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Norrby IF vs Oddevold 25.3% 25.1% 49.5% 0.71 1.08
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Falkenbergs FF vs Orebro SK 73.2% 20.2% 6.5% 1.40 0.91
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Ljungskile SK vs Ostersunds FK 40.1% 26.5% 33.4% 0.82 0.95
14 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Sandviken vs IK brage 64.8% 22.4% 12.8% 0.95 0.68
15 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF 30.9% 26.1% 43.1% 0.76 1.04
15 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 IFK Norrkoping vs Varbergs BoIS FC 67.9% 21.7% 10.4% 1.51 1.17
16 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic 54.7% 24.3% 21.0% 1.10 1.02
16 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 12 IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg 61.2% 23.2% 15.6% 0.92 0.72
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 IK brage vs IFK Varnamo 16.4% 23.4% 60.2% 0.71 1.25
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall 57.7% 23.8% 18.5% 0.75 0.61
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Osters IF vs Falkenbergs FF 45.4% 25.7% 28.9% 1.10 1.15
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Norrby IF vs United Nordic 28.8% 25.7% 45.4% 0.71 1.02
21 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping 22.7% 24.7% 52.6% 1.18 1.60
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Oddevold vs Ljungskile SK 73.5% 20.1% 6.4% 1.25 0.75
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Landskrona BoIS 52.9% 24.6% 22.5% 1.22 1.16
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 13 Orebro SK vs Sandviken 51.0% 24.9% 24.1% 1.00 0.97
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF 21.3% 24.4% 54.3% 0.71 1.15
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Ljungskile SK vs Orebro SK 42.7% 26.1% 31.1% 0.82 0.91
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Osters IF 60.2% 23.4% 16.4% 1.22 1.04
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 United Nordic vs Oddevold 46.2% 25.6% 28.2% 1.04 1.08
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK 36.4% 27.0% 36.7% 0.76 0.95
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo 38.8% 26.7% 34.6% 1.10 1.25
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF 82.0% 16.3% 1.8% 1.51 0.62
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 14 Sandviken vs Helsingborg 62.9% 22.8% 14.3% 0.95 0.72
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Oddevold vs Varbergs BoIS FC 54.7% 24.3% 20.9% 1.25 1.17
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS 50.5% 25.0% 24.5% 1.18 1.16
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Osters IF vs IK brage 70.7% 21.0% 8.3% 1.10 0.68
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 IFK Norrkoping vs Sandviken 74.5% 19.8% 5.7% 1.51 0.97
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 United Nordic vs Orebro SK 57.1% 23.9% 19.0% 1.04 0.91
19 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 IFK Varnamo vs Ljungskile SK 59.6% 23.5% 17.0% 0.92 0.75
20 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall 55.2% 24.2% 20.6% 0.71 0.61
21 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 15 Falkenbergs FF vs Helsingborg 78.1% 18.3% 3.5% 1.40 0.72
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Helsingborg vs United Nordic 31.3% 26.1% 42.5% 0.75 1.02
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Norrkoping 18.7% 23.9% 57.4% 1.10 1.60
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Ljungskile SK vs Sandviken 38.2% 26.8% 35.1% 0.82 0.97
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK 33.1% 26.4% 40.5% 0.71 0.95
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Orebro SK vs Oddevold 43.9% 25.9% 30.1% 1.00 1.08
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 Osters IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC 44.3% 25.9% 29.8% 1.10 1.17
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF 24.3% 24.9% 50.8% 0.76 1.15
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 16 IFK Varnamo vs IK brage 63.3% 22.8% 14.0% 0.92 0.68
07 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 22 Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK 52.7% 24.6% 22.6% 1.00 0.95
20 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 27 IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK 76.2% 19.2% 4.6% 1.51 0.91
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ljungskile SK 72.4% 20.5% 7.1% 1.22 0.75
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Osters IF vs Helsingborg 69.2% 21.4% 9.4% 1.10 0.72
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK 60.9% 23.2% 15.9% 1.10 0.91
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 IK brage vs Norrby IF 54.8% 24.3% 20.9% 0.71 0.62
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF 23.6% 24.8% 51.6% 0.75 1.15
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS 26.7% 25.4% 47.9% 0.82 1.16
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Orebro SK vs Osters IF 46.7% 25.5% 27.7% 1.00 1.04
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Ostersunds FK vs Oddevold 55.8% 24.1% 20.1% 1.18 1.08
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandviken vs United Nordic 44.7% 25.8% 29.5% 0.95 1.02
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC 23.4% 24.8% 51.8% 0.76 1.17
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping 11.3% 22.0% 66.7% 0.92 1.60