Slovakia Super Liga race map

Slovakia Super Liga Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Main Danger Team AS Trencin
72.3% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Ružomberok
Gap score 22.4 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

1 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

2 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

4 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
AS Trencin 12 9 12.0 72.3% 71.1% 73.5%
Ružomberok 11 9 11.0 46.8% 58.0% 35.6%
Komárno 9 10 10.5 36.1% 30.3% 41.8%
Skalica 10 10 9.5 33.7% 25.3% 42.0%
Zemplín Michalovce 8 14 8.0 8.6% 10.3% 6.8%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 7 14 7.0 2.4% 4.6% 0.2%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Ružomberok 12 10 18.3 19.4 22.4
Dukla Banská Bystrica 7 7 25.6 29.5 19.5
Skalica 9 10 21.1 18.6 16.7
Spartak Trnava 4 4 37.1 34.3 16.5
Komárno 10 11 20.2 18.3 11.5
Podbrezová 6 7 29.4 29.3 10.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Žilina vs Slovan Bratislava 06 Feb 2027 220.7 32.9% 23.4% 43.8% Žilina: Top 4 96.1% | Slovan Bratislava: Top 4 99.3%
Slovan Bratislava vs Dunajska Streda 13 Dec 2026 220.1 23.6% 22.6% 53.8% Slovan Bratislava: Top 4 99.3% | Dunajska Streda: Top 4 100.0%
Dunajska Streda vs Žilina 27 Feb 2027 210.2 68.7% 18.8% 12.5% Dunajska Streda: Top 4 100.0% | Žilina: Top 4 96.1%
Slovan Bratislava vs Spartak Trnava 27 Feb 2027 190.7 49.5% 23.2% 27.5% Slovan Bratislava: Top 4 99.3% | Spartak Trnava: Top 4 68.7%
Žilina vs Spartak Trnava 05 Dec 2026 189.6 45.0% 22.1% 33.0% Žilina: Top 4 96.1% | Spartak Trnava: Top 4 68.7%
Slovan Bratislava vs AS Trencin 07 Nov 2026 185.1 70.1% 18.9% 11.1% Slovan Bratislava: Top 4 99.3% | AS Trencin: Bottom Finish 72.3%
Spartak Trnava vs Dunajska Streda 13 Feb 2027 184.2 14.3% 20.3% 65.5% Spartak Trnava: Top 4 68.7% | Dunajska Streda: Top 4 100.0%
AS Trencin vs Žilina 13 Feb 2027 182.7 13.1% 18.7% 68.2% AS Trencin: Bottom Finish 72.3% | Žilina: Top 4 96.1%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Super Liga. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 56
Goal Model Base 1.59 / 1.66
Form Model Base 1.36 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (11-12) Form Bottom Finish (11-12)
1 Dunajska Streda 32 54.9 55.3 1 1 98.2% 98.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Slovan Bratislava 27 43.5 44.5 2 2 1.5% 1.6% 98.8% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Žilina 25 40.3 41.5 3 3 0.2% 0.3% 93.8% 98.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Spartak Trnava 22 37.1 34.3 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 76.9% 60.4% 0.0% 0.0%
5 FK Košice 18 32.2 31.6 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Podbrezová 17 29.4 29.3 6 7 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 9.0% 0.3% 0.1%
7 Dukla Banská Bystrica 14 25.6 29.5 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 9.7% 4.6% 0.2%
8 Zemplín Michalovce 14 23.6 23.2 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 10.3% 6.8%
9 Komárno 10 20.2 18.3 10 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 41.8%
10 Skalica 10 21.1 18.6 9 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.3% 42.0%
11 Ružomberok 9 18.3 19.4 12 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 35.6%
12 AS Trencin 9 17.1 16.4 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 71.1% 73.5%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Ružomberok vs Skalica 35.4% 25.6% 38.9% 1.33 1.40
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Dunajska Streda 8.4% 12.3% 79.3% 0.96 3.08
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava 19.2% 19.0% 61.8% 1.25 2.34
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Skalica vs Žilina 17.7% 17.2% 65.2% 1.35 2.65
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Slovan Bratislava vs AS Trencin 64.8% 18.3% 16.9% 2.40 1.16
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Dunajska Streda vs FK Košice 70.9% 14.8% 14.2% 3.01 1.35
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Podbrezová vs Ružomberok 60.4% 21.1% 18.5% 2.02 1.02
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Komárno vs Zemplín Michalovce 38.5% 30.1% 31.4% 1.11 0.97
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Ružomberok vs Slovan Bratislava 15.9% 20.6% 63.5% 0.90 2.03
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 AS Trencin vs Podbrezová 21.2% 21.6% 57.2% 1.13 1.99
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Žilina vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 61.5% 19.3% 19.2% 2.29 1.22
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Zemplín Michalovce vs Spartak Trnava 20.0% 22.6% 57.4% 0.99 1.85
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FK Košice vs Skalica 49.9% 23.1% 26.9% 1.80 1.27
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Dunajska Streda vs Komárno 70.2% 18.3% 11.5% 2.19 0.76
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Ružomberok 55.9% 21.2% 22.9% 2.05 1.25
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Komárno vs Žilina 19.3% 21.8% 58.9% 1.01 1.94
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Podbrezová vs Dunajska Streda 12.0% 16.4% 71.6% 0.94 2.52
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Slovan Bratislava vs FK Košice 52.0% 18.4% 29.5% 2.63 2.00
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Skalica vs Zemplín Michalovce 40.8% 25.2% 34.0% 1.47 1.32
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Spartak Trnava vs AS Trencin 53.6% 21.9% 24.5% 1.96 1.27
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Komárno vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 34.2% 31.8% 33.9% 0.95 0.95
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Zemplín Michalovce vs Slovan Bratislava 16.1% 22.0% 61.9% 0.83 1.87
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Ružomberok vs AS Trencin 38.8% 25.0% 36.2% 1.46 1.40
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Žilina vs Spartak Trnava 31.9% 20.4% 47.7% 1.79 2.20
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Dunajska Streda vs Skalica 74.8% 15.6% 9.6% 2.50 0.79
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FK Košice vs Podbrezová 51.9% 21.4% 26.7% 2.03 1.41
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Skalica vs Komárno 25.8% 25.2% 49.1% 1.07 1.57
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 AS Trencin vs Zemplín Michalovce 31.7% 25.9% 42.4% 1.21 1.44
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Spartak Trnava vs Ružomberok 68.7% 17.7% 13.6% 2.38 0.97
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Podbrezová vs Žilina 30.0% 20.6% 49.5% 1.67 2.17
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs FK Košice 24.4% 17.4% 58.2% 1.86 2.83
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Slovan Bratislava vs Dunajska Streda 23.5% 20.4% 56.1% 1.36 2.18
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Dunajska Streda vs AS Trencin 78.4% 13.6% 8.0% 2.75 0.78
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Komárno vs Podbrezová 29.0% 27.5% 43.6% 1.04 1.34
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 FK Košice vs Spartak Trnava 31.2% 22.8% 46.0% 1.46 1.81
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Zemplín Michalovce vs Ružomberok 52.5% 24.7% 22.8% 1.63 0.98
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Skalica vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 36.1% 26.6% 37.3% 1.27 1.29
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Žilina vs Slovan Bratislava 25.6% 20.2% 54.1% 1.50 2.23
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Zemplín Michalovce 49.9% 22.6% 27.5% 1.86 1.33
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Podbrezová vs Skalica 41.4% 24.9% 33.7% 1.52 1.34
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Ružomberok vs FK Košice 25.0% 19.2% 55.8% 1.60 2.42
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Slovan Bratislava vs Komárno 55.9% 22.2% 22.0% 1.91 1.12
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 AS Trencin vs Žilina 11.7% 14.5% 73.8% 1.11 2.89
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Spartak Trnava vs Dunajska Streda 16.2% 18.3% 65.5% 1.11 2.39
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs AS Trencin 39.7% 22.9% 37.4% 1.69 1.64
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Komárno vs FK Košice 19.7% 20.9% 59.4% 1.10 2.06
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Zemplín Michalovce vs Dunajska Streda 9.8% 16.1% 74.1% 0.76 2.43
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Skalica vs Slovan Bratislava 11.4% 17.1% 71.5% 0.83 2.36
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Spartak Trnava vs Podbrezová 51.4% 21.5% 27.0% 2.02 1.42
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Žilina vs Ružomberok 73.3% 14.5% 12.2% 2.94 1.17
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Dunajska Streda vs Žilina 68.6% 16.1% 15.2% 2.76 1.27
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FK Košice vs Zemplín Michalovce 63.5% 19.7% 16.8% 2.17 1.03
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Podbrezová vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 49.2% 25.2% 25.6% 1.57 1.06
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Ružomberok vs Komárno 32.1% 26.8% 41.1% 1.16 1.35
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Slovan Bratislava vs Spartak Trnava 41.0% 22.5% 36.5% 1.77 1.66
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 AS Trencin vs Skalica 21.1% 23.2% 55.6% 1.00 1.78

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Ružomberok vs Skalica 54.5% 24.4% 21.2% 0.82 0.73
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Dunajska Streda 12.7% 22.4% 64.9% 1.04 1.67
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava 42.3% 26.2% 31.5% 1.04 1.13
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Skalica vs Žilina 14.2% 22.8% 63.0% 0.65 1.24
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Slovan Bratislava vs AS Trencin 75.3% 19.5% 5.2% 1.27 0.70
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Dunajska Streda vs FK Košice 74.1% 20.0% 6.0% 1.61 1.08
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Podbrezová vs Ružomberok 61.7% 23.1% 15.2% 0.94 0.73
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Komárno vs Zemplín Michalovce 42.8% 26.1% 31.1% 0.66 0.75
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Ružomberok vs Slovan Bratislava 14.5% 22.9% 62.6% 0.82 1.41
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 AS Trencin vs Podbrezová 29.5% 25.8% 44.7% 0.65 0.95
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Žilina vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 65.4% 22.3% 12.3% 1.28 0.99
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Zemplín Michalovce vs Spartak Trnava 32.6% 26.4% 41.1% 0.89 1.13
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FK Košice vs Skalica 67.2% 21.9% 10.9% 1.06 0.73
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Dunajska Streda vs Komárno 80.5% 17.2% 2.4% 1.61 0.80
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Ružomberok 66.2% 22.1% 11.7% 1.04 0.73
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Komárno vs Žilina 14.6% 22.9% 62.5% 0.66 1.24
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Podbrezová vs Dunajska Streda 9.6% 21.5% 68.9% 0.94 1.67
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Slovan Bratislava vs FK Košice 60.6% 23.3% 16.1% 1.27 1.08
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Skalica vs Zemplín Michalovce 42.1% 26.2% 31.7% 0.65 0.75
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Spartak Trnava vs AS Trencin 66.8% 22.0% 11.2% 1.02 0.70
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Komárno vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 27.3% 25.5% 47.3% 0.66 0.99
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Zemplín Michalovce vs Slovan Bratislava 17.6% 23.6% 58.8% 0.89 1.41
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Ružomberok vs AS Trencin 56.1% 24.1% 19.8% 0.82 0.70
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Žilina vs Spartak Trnava 58.0% 23.8% 18.2% 1.28 1.13
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Dunajska Streda vs Skalica 81.7% 16.4% 1.9% 1.61 0.73
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FK Košice vs Podbrezová 56.0% 24.1% 19.9% 1.06 0.95
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Skalica vs Komárno 38.0% 26.8% 35.2% 0.65 0.80
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 AS Trencin vs Zemplín Michalovce 42.7% 26.1% 31.2% 0.65 0.75
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Spartak Trnava vs Ružomberok 65.7% 22.3% 12.1% 1.02 0.73
12 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Podbrezová vs Žilina 29.2% 25.8% 45.1% 0.94 1.24
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs FK Košice 45.7% 25.7% 28.6% 1.04 1.08
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 18 Slovan Bratislava vs Dunajska Streda 23.7% 24.8% 51.5% 1.27 1.67
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Dunajska Streda vs AS Trencin 82.1% 16.2% 1.7% 1.61 0.70
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Komárno vs Podbrezová 29.6% 25.8% 44.6% 0.66 0.95
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 FK Košice vs Spartak Trnava 44.0% 25.9% 30.0% 1.06 1.13
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Zemplín Michalovce vs Ružomberok 58.9% 23.6% 17.5% 0.89 0.73
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Skalica vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 26.7% 25.4% 47.9% 0.65 0.99
06 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Žilina vs Slovan Bratislava 40.1% 26.5% 33.4% 1.28 1.41
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Zemplín Michalovce 65.5% 22.3% 12.2% 1.04 0.75
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Podbrezová vs Skalica 61.6% 23.1% 15.3% 0.94 0.73
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Ružomberok vs FK Košice 31.1% 26.1% 42.7% 0.82 1.08
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Slovan Bratislava vs Komárno 72.4% 20.5% 7.1% 1.27 0.80
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 AS Trencin vs Žilina 14.5% 22.9% 62.5% 0.65 1.24
13 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 20 Spartak Trnava vs Dunajska Streda 12.3% 22.3% 65.4% 1.02 1.67
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Dukla Banská Bystrica vs AS Trencin 67.3% 21.9% 10.8% 1.04 0.70
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Komárno vs FK Košice 22.0% 24.5% 53.5% 0.66 1.08
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Zemplín Michalovce vs Dunajska Streda 8.2% 21.0% 70.8% 0.89 1.67
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Skalica vs Slovan Bratislava 8.8% 21.2% 70.0% 0.65 1.41
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Spartak Trnava vs Podbrezová 53.8% 24.5% 21.8% 1.02 0.95
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 21 Žilina vs Ružomberok 74.7% 19.7% 5.6% 1.28 0.73
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Dunajska Streda vs Žilina 68.7% 21.5% 9.8% 1.61 1.24
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 FK Košice vs Zemplín Michalovce 66.6% 22.1% 11.4% 1.06 0.75
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Podbrezová vs Dukla Banská Bystrica 45.7% 25.7% 28.6% 0.94 0.99
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Ružomberok vs Komárno 49.8% 25.1% 25.1% 0.82 0.80
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 Slovan Bratislava vs Spartak Trnava 57.9% 23.8% 18.4% 1.27 1.13
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 22 AS Trencin vs Skalica 43.8% 26.0% 30.3% 0.65 0.73