Phase Winner probability sits at 48.1% and the most likely finish is 1.0.
Peru Liga 1 race map
Peru Liga 1 Season Predictor 2026-2027
This season is organized into imported phase tables. Each section below starts from the live Apertura or Clausura table and only simulates the remaining fixtures still left inside that phase.
Multi-Phase Predictor
This competition has imported Apertura, Clausura tables. Each section below starts from that phase table and only simulates the remaining fixtures still left in the same phase.
Apertura Has Concluded
Apertura has concluded, so there are no remaining fixtures to simulate.
Clausura Predictor
Clausura is modeled from its imported phase table, so the projections do not merge Apertura and Clausura into one standings race.
Sporting Cristal is still on 48.1% average phase winner odds.
FBC Melgar owns the biggest model gap at 40.0, which usually marks the most debatable team in the group.
Projected Table
How the Clausura looks once the remaining group fixtures are simulated.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Phase Winner | Avg Play-offs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1 | 28 | 34.4 | 1.0 | 48.1% | 48.1% |
| Universitario | 4 | 27 | 34.0 | 1.0 | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| Sport Huancayo | 2 | 28 | 32.8 | 2.0 | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Alianza Lima | 8 | 25 | 31.1 | 4.0 | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Alianza Atletico | 3 | 28 | 31.5 | 4.5 | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| FBC Melgar | 5 | 26 | 30.2 | 5.0 | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 25 | 29.7 | 6.5 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Cusco | 9 | 24 | 29.7 | 6.5 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Juan Pablo II College | 7 | 25 | 28.0 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sport Boys | 10 | 21 | 25.9 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atletico Grau | 11 | 18 | 22.2 | 11.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cienciano | 12 | 17 | 19.5 | 12.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 13 | 14 | 18.3 | 13.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 12 | 15.3 | 14.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Cajamarca | 15 | 11 | 13.0 | 15.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UCV Moquegua | 17 | 10 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ADT | 16 | 10 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UTC Cajamarca | 18 | 5 | 8.1 | 18.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model Disagreement
The teams where goal strength and points-form still tell the most different story inside this group.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 3 | 7 | 30.7 | 29.7 | 40.0 |
| Alianza Atletico | 5 | 4 | 31.0 | 31.9 | 10.0 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 7 | 6 | 29.6 | 29.8 | 10.0 |
| Cusco | 6 | 7 | 29.4 | 29.9 | 10.0 |
| FC Cajamarca | 15 | 16 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 10.0 |
| UCV Moquegua | 16 | 15 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 10.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score works the same way here as in the regular-season view, but it is focused only on the fixtures still left in Clausura.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADT vs Sporting Cristal | 07 Nov 2026 | 73.4 | 29.7% | 26.5% | 43.8% | ADT: Projection 0.0% | Sporting Cristal: Title 48.1% |
| Sport Huancayo vs Universitario | 14 Nov 2026 | 67.8 | 48.9% | 23.4% | 27.8% | Sport Huancayo: Title 13.5% | Universitario: Title 31.3% |
| Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca | 02 Nov 2026 | 59.8 | 74.1% | 17.0% | 9.0% | Sporting Cristal: Title 48.1% | FC Cajamarca: Projection 0.0% |
| Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano | 14 Nov 2026 | 59.8 | 73.9% | 17.4% | 8.7% | Sporting Cristal: Title 48.1% | Cienciano: Projection 0.0% |
| Atletico Grau vs Universitario | 01 Nov 2026 | 57.9 | 33.8% | 25.2% | 41.0% | Atletico Grau: Projection 0.0% | Universitario: Title 31.3% |
| Universitario vs Sport Boys | 05 Nov 2026 | 48.6 | 61.5% | 23.0% | 15.6% | Universitario: Title 31.3% | Sport Boys: Projection 0.0% |
| Universitario vs UCV Moquegua | 09 Nov 2026 | 43.9 | 71.9% | 19.8% | 8.3% | Universitario: Title 31.3% | UCV Moquegua: Projection 0.0% |
| Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo | 08 Nov 2026 | 41.9 | 37.0% | 27.0% | 36.1% | Cienciano: Projection 0.0% | Sport Huancayo: Title 13.5% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output for Clausura, including projected finishes and remaining fixture probabilities.
This section simulates the remaining Clausura fixtures from the imported live phase table. Apertura and Clausura are modeled as separate phase races, so results from one phase are not merged into the other standings table.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
27
Goal Model Base
1.79 / 1.22
Form Model Base
1.4 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Phase Winner | Form Phase Winner | Goal Play-offs | Form Play-offs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 34.1 | 34.7 | 1 | 1 | 46.5% | 49.6% | 46.5% | 49.6% |
| 2 | Sport Huancayo | 28 | 32.2 | 33.3 | 2 | 2 | 11.9% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 15.1% |
| 3 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | 31.0 | 31.9 | 5 | 4 | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| 4 | Universitario | 27 | 33.6 | 34.4 | 1 | 1 | 30.5% | 32.0% | 30.5% | 32.0% |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 26 | 30.7 | 29.7 | 3 | 7 | 5.4% | 0.8% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 25 | 29.6 | 29.8 | 7 | 6 | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 7 | Juan Pablo II College | 25 | 28.0 | 27.9 | 9 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Alianza Lima | 25 | 30.6 | 31.5 | 4 | 4 | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 9 | Cusco | 24 | 29.4 | 29.9 | 6 | 7 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 21 | 26.0 | 25.8 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 18 | 22.6 | 21.8 | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Cienciano | 17 | 19.8 | 19.1 | 12 | 12 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 14 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 13 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 12 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 14 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 11 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 15 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | ADT | 10 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 17 | 17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 10 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 16 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 5 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 18 | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 14 | Universitario vs Sport Boys | 55.5% | 24.1% | 20.4% | 1.69 | 0.92 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 44.5% | 27.5% | 28.0% | 1.34 | 1.00 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Cusco vs Sport Boys | 56.4% | 24.4% | 19.2% | 1.65 | 0.85 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Atletico Grau vs Universitario | 41.1% | 25.1% | 33.8% | 1.49 | 1.33 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar | 36.6% | 26.3% | 37.2% | 1.30 | 1.32 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso | 26.3% | 26.0% | 47.7% | 1.04 | 1.49 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca | 70.3% | 15.5% | 14.2% | 2.86 | 1.26 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT | 65.5% | 19.5% | 15.0% | 2.15 | 0.92 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Alianza Lima vs Cienciano | 58.2% | 22.0% | 19.9% | 1.92 | 1.03 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Atletico Grau vs Cusco | 47.8% | 26.3% | 25.9% | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | ADT vs Sporting Cristal | 33.2% | 27.7% | 39.1% | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico | 28.5% | 19.2% | 52.4% | 1.81 | 2.46 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College | 52.9% | 22.5% | 24.5% | 1.88 | 1.21 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo | 40.3% | 27.5% | 32.2% | 1.29 | 1.12 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima | 26.6% | 23.6% | 49.8% | 1.21 | 1.74 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca | 67.0% | 18.3% | 14.7% | 2.32 | 1.00 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos | 67.6% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 2.56 | 1.16 |
| 09 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Universitario vs UCV Moquegua | 68.5% | 20.1% | 11.4% | 1.97 | 0.65 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar | 33.9% | 24.2% | 41.9% | 1.40 | 1.59 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca | 55.7% | 21.4% | 22.9% | 2.02 | 1.23 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 48.6% | 24.9% | 26.5% | 1.60 | 1.11 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys | 45.3% | 25.8% | 28.9% | 1.49 | 1.13 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Cusco vs ADT | 75.1% | 16.0% | 8.9% | 2.39 | 0.69 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso | 60.2% | 24.1% | 15.7% | 1.66 | 0.71 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau | 34.7% | 27.5% | 37.8% | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Sport Huancayo vs Universitario | 45.8% | 21.9% | 32.3% | 1.93 | 1.60 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano | 72.3% | 15.4% | 12.3% | 2.72 | 1.06 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 14 | Universitario vs Sport Boys | 67.5% | 21.8% | 10.7% | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 44.3% | 25.9% | 29.8% | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Cusco vs Sport Boys | 64.4% | 22.5% | 13.1% | 1.22 | 0.95 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Atletico Grau vs Universitario | 26.5% | 25.3% | 48.1% | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar | 58.5% | 23.7% | 17.8% | 1.40 | 1.24 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso | 22.9% | 24.7% | 52.5% | 0.55 | 0.96 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca | 77.8% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 1.52 | 0.85 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT | 62.9% | 22.8% | 14.2% | 0.87 | 0.63 |
| 04 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Alianza Lima vs Cienciano | 67.9% | 21.7% | 10.4% | 1.29 | 0.94 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Atletico Grau vs Cusco | 41.1% | 26.3% | 32.5% | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | ADT vs Sporting Cristal | 26.2% | 25.3% | 48.5% | 0.81 | 1.16 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico | 18.5% | 23.8% | 57.7% | 0.59 | 1.09 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College | 60.6% | 23.3% | 16.1% | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo | 33.6% | 26.5% | 39.9% | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima | 22.5% | 24.6% | 52.9% | 0.77 | 1.19 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca | 77.3% | 18.7% | 4.0% | 1.22 | 0.57 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos | 73.1% | 20.3% | 6.6% | 1.26 | 0.77 |
| 09 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Universitario vs UCV Moquegua | 75.2% | 19.5% | 5.2% | 1.29 | 0.72 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar | 56.1% | 24.1% | 19.8% | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Alianza Lima vs FC Cajamarca | 71.4% | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.29 | 0.85 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | UTC Cajamarca vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 41.2% | 26.3% | 32.5% | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys | 43.6% | 26.0% | 30.4% | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Cusco vs ADT | 75.6% | 19.4% | 5.0% | 1.22 | 0.63 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso | 65.8% | 22.2% | 12.0% | 1.26 | 0.96 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau | 40.3% | 26.5% | 33.2% | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Sport Huancayo vs Universitario | 51.9% | 24.8% | 23.3% | 1.40 | 1.35 |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 17 | Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano | 75.5% | 19.4% | 5.1% | 1.52 | 0.94 |