Norway Eliteserien race map

Norway Eliteserien Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Viking
56.0% average title probability
Closest Challenger Bodo/Glimt
44.1% average title probability
Main Danger Team Start
89.1% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split KFUM Oslo
Gap score 20.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

2 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

4 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

2 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Viking 2 59 69.5 56.0% 56.3% 55.6%
Bodo/Glimt 1 59 69.2 44.1% 43.7% 44.4%
Molde 3 43 51.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rosenborg 4 43 53.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tromso 5 40 48.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lillestrom 6 39 49.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Bodo/Glimt 1 2.0 100.0% 44.1% +0.6
Viking 2 1.0 100.0% 56.0% +0.1
Rosenborg 4 3.0 84.1% 0.0% +0.8
Molde 3 3.5 64.6% 0.0% -0.2
Lillestrom 6 5.5 31.5% 0.0% +1.9
Tromso 5 6.0 19.8% 0.0% -1.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF 7 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
KFUM Oslo 8 9.0 0.0% 0.0% +1.6

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Start 16 19 16.0 89.1% 90.8% 87.4%
Kristiansund BK 15 20 15.0 73.9% 74.1% 73.6%
Aalesund 14 24 14.0 31.3% 27.4% 35.1%
Ham-Kam 13 26 13.0 4.2% 5.5% 2.9%
Sandefjord 12 27 12.0 1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Fredrikstad 11 29 11.0 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
KFUM Oslo 10 8 36.2 37.8 20.0
Lillestrom 6 5 48.7 50.6 18.4
Tromso 6 6 49.2 47.6 16.5
Molde 3 4 51.7 51.5 10.0
Valerenga 9 10 36.8 36.0 10.0
Brann 7 7 38.6 36.7 9.5

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 20 Nov 2026 192.4 37.0% 24.8% 38.3% Molde: Top 4 64.6% | Bodo/Glimt: Top 4 100.0%
Molde vs Viking 04 Dec 2026 190.3 43.0% 24.7% 32.4% Molde: Top 4 64.6% | Viking: Top 4 100.0%
Start vs Kristiansund BK 13 Dec 2026 183.5 54.5% 24.0% 21.6% Start: Bottom Finish 89.1% | Kristiansund BK: Bottom Finish 73.9%
Rosenborg vs Start 07 Nov 2026 182.2 80.1% 14.8% 5.2% Rosenborg: Top 4 84.1% | Start: Bottom Finish 89.1%
Rosenborg vs Molde 28 Nov 2026 168.7 55.6% 22.0% 22.5% Rosenborg: Top 4 84.1% | Molde: Top 4 64.6%
Tromso vs Viking 21 Nov 2026 146.6 33.4% 26.3% 40.4% Tromso: Top 4 19.8% | Viking: Top 4 100.0%
Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt 05 Dec 2026 145.1 12.2% 18.5% 69.4% Aalesund: Bottom Finish 31.3% | Bodo/Glimt: Top 4 100.0%
Start vs Lillestrom 01 Nov 2026 143.9 26.0% 25.7% 48.3% Start: Bottom Finish 89.1% | Lillestrom: Top 4 31.5%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Eliteserien. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 45
Goal Model Base 1.84 / 1.4
Form Model Base 1.4 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) Form Bottom Finish (15-16)
1 Bodo/Glimt 59 68.9 69.5 2 2 43.7% 44.4% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Viking 59 69.4 69.5 1 1 56.3% 55.6% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Molde 43 51.7 51.5 3 4 0.0% 0.0% 67.2% 62.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Rosenborg 43 52.9 53.7 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 82.4% 85.7% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Tromso 40 49.2 47.6 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 28.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Lillestrom 39 48.7 50.6 6 5 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 40.7% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Sarpsborg 08 FF 31 39.1 39.1 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 KFUM Oslo 30 36.2 37.8 10 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
9 Brann 29 38.6 36.7 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
10 Valerenga 29 36.8 36.0 9 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
11 Fredrikstad 29 35.1 35.2 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2%
12 Sandefjord 27 33.8 33.9 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.7%
13 Ham-Kam 26 32.3 31.9 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 2.9%
14 Aalesund 24 28.8 27.7 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 35.1%
15 Kristiansund BK 20 26.3 26.0 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.1% 73.6%
16 Start 19 24.5 24.7 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 90.8% 87.4%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Brann vs Molde 36.2% 21.4% 42.4% 1.79 1.95
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam 49.4% 23.8% 26.8% 1.72 1.20
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK 56.6% 23.9% 19.5% 1.71 0.89
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Start vs Lillestrom 28.7% 26.6% 44.7% 1.08 1.41
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Valerenga vs Tromso 40.2% 21.5% 38.3% 1.89 1.84
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga 38.4% 23.4% 38.1% 1.60 1.60
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Rosenborg vs Start 80.4% 12.0% 7.6% 3.05 0.88
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 33.3% 25.5% 41.1% 1.28 1.45
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 32.7% 23.8% 43.5% 1.41 1.66
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Lillestrom vs Aalesund 51.6% 21.5% 26.9% 2.03 1.42
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Sandefjord vs Molde 28.9% 25.4% 45.6% 1.16 1.52
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Viking vs KFUM Oslo 80.8% 11.5% 7.8% 3.23 0.98
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Fredrikstad vs Brann 32.9% 24.3% 42.8% 1.37 1.60
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 38.8% 22.7% 38.5% 1.70 1.69
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Tromso vs Viking 36.0% 26.5% 37.5% 1.27 1.30
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad 43.7% 23.0% 33.3% 1.76 1.51
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Valerenga vs Start 68.1% 16.8% 15.1% 2.62 1.18
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Aalesund vs Rosenborg 23.9% 18.9% 57.2% 1.57 2.46
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 KFUM Oslo vs Brann 36.3% 24.5% 39.2% 1.44 1.51
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord 35.1% 26.0% 38.8% 1.29 1.37
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom 34.1% 28.9% 37.0% 1.09 1.14
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo 78.2% 13.5% 8.2% 2.77 0.81
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Rosenborg vs Molde 51.3% 20.5% 28.2% 2.18 1.59
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Fredrikstad vs Aalesund 42.0% 24.6% 33.3% 1.55 1.35
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Brann vs Kristiansund BK 65.0% 19.3% 15.7% 2.20 0.98
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Sandefjord vs Tromso 33.1% 27.0% 39.9% 1.17 1.31
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 31.6% 25.3% 43.0% 1.25 1.50
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Viking vs Valerenga 81.4% 10.8% 7.7% 3.45 1.08
30 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam 55.7% 20.7% 23.6% 2.13 1.34
04 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Molde vs Viking 41.9% 23.4% 34.7% 1.68 1.51
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt 14.9% 15.4% 69.7% 1.35 2.93
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Valerenga vs Rosenborg 31.6% 22.7% 45.7% 1.48 1.82
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann 34.4% 24.4% 41.2% 1.40 1.56
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad 50.1% 24.7% 25.1% 1.62 1.07
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom 29.4% 26.6% 44.0% 1.10 1.41
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Tromso vs Start 76.6% 14.5% 8.9% 2.64 0.79
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord 35.5% 24.5% 39.9% 1.42 1.52
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 71.2% 17.2% 11.6% 2.35 0.84
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Brann vs Aalesund 51.2% 21.4% 27.4% 2.04 1.45
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Fredrikstad vs Molde 28.9% 22.9% 48.3% 1.36 1.82
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Lillestrom vs Tromso 41.9% 22.4% 35.7% 1.80 1.65
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo 65.9% 18.5% 15.7% 2.33 1.05
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandefjord vs Valerenga 41.4% 27.2% 31.4% 1.32 1.12
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Start vs Kristiansund BK 51.1% 24.1% 24.8% 1.69 1.11
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Viking vs Ham-Kam 83.8% 9.7% 6.5% 3.60 1.03

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Brann vs Molde 30.9% 26.1% 43.0% 0.92 1.19
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam 68.6% 21.6% 9.8% 1.11 0.74
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK 65.9% 22.2% 11.9% 0.90 0.60
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Start vs Lillestrom 23.3% 24.8% 51.9% 0.74 1.15
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 25 Valerenga vs Tromso 43.4% 26.0% 30.6% 0.87 0.95
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga 43.7% 26.0% 30.3% 0.75 0.83
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Rosenborg vs Start 79.7% 17.6% 2.8% 1.37 0.61
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt 23.3% 24.7% 52.0% 1.09 1.50
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 41.9% 26.2% 31.9% 0.77 0.88
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Lillestrom vs Aalesund 66.5% 22.1% 11.5% 1.14 0.82
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Sandefjord vs Molde 27.7% 25.5% 46.8% 0.86 1.19
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Viking vs KFUM Oslo 78.6% 18.1% 3.3% 1.66 0.95
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 26 Fredrikstad vs Brann 51.4% 24.8% 23.8% 0.84 0.81
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Molde vs Bodo/Glimt 35.1% 26.8% 38.1% 1.30 1.50
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Tromso vs Viking 30.7% 26.0% 43.3% 1.09 1.37
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad 48.1% 25.3% 26.6% 0.77 0.79
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Valerenga vs Start 64.3% 22.5% 13.1% 0.87 0.61
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Aalesund vs Rosenborg 17.8% 23.7% 58.5% 0.77 1.28
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 KFUM Oslo vs Brann 65.8% 22.2% 11.9% 1.11 0.81
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Kristiansund BK vs Sandefjord 40.9% 26.4% 32.7% 0.75 0.87
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 27 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom 32.5% 26.3% 41.2% 0.90 1.15
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo 77.3% 18.7% 4.0% 1.60 0.95
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Rosenborg vs Molde 59.8% 23.4% 16.8% 1.37 1.19
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Fredrikstad vs Aalesund 50.4% 25.0% 24.6% 0.84 0.82
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Brann vs Kristiansund BK 66.6% 22.0% 11.3% 0.92 0.60
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Sandefjord vs Tromso 42.9% 26.1% 31.0% 0.86 0.95
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Start vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 39.8% 26.5% 33.6% 0.74 0.88
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Viking vs Valerenga 80.9% 16.9% 2.2% 1.66 0.83
30 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 28 Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam 69.7% 21.3% 9.0% 1.14 0.74
04 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Molde vs Viking 44.0% 25.9% 30.1% 1.30 1.37
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt 9.5% 21.5% 69.0% 0.77 1.50
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Valerenga vs Rosenborg 23.1% 24.7% 52.2% 0.87 1.28
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann 54.9% 24.3% 20.8% 0.90 0.81
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 KFUM Oslo vs Fredrikstad 66.8% 22.0% 11.2% 1.11 0.79
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom 23.9% 24.9% 51.3% 0.75 1.15
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Tromso vs Start 73.0% 20.3% 6.7% 1.09 0.61
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 29 Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord 42.3% 26.2% 31.6% 0.77 0.87
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF 78.9% 18.0% 3.1% 1.60 0.88
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Brann vs Aalesund 55.0% 24.3% 20.7% 0.92 0.82
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Fredrikstad vs Molde 26.6% 25.3% 48.0% 0.84 1.19
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Lillestrom vs Tromso 60.2% 23.4% 16.5% 1.14 0.95
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo 70.6% 21.0% 8.4% 1.37 0.95
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandefjord vs Valerenga 51.2% 24.9% 23.9% 0.86 0.83
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Start vs Kristiansund BK 57.9% 23.8% 18.3% 0.74 0.60
13 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 30 Viking vs Ham-Kam 82.3% 16.1% 1.7% 1.66 0.74