Norway 1. Division race map

Norway 1. Division Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Haugesund
73.8% average title probability
Closest Challenger Stromsgodset
18.9% average title probability
Main Danger Team Raufoss
100.0% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Asane
Gap score 9.2 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

2 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

0 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Haugesund 1 62 66.2 73.8% 70.4% 77.1%
Stromsgodset 2 60 63.6 18.9% 21.7% 16.0%
Kongsvinger 3 59 62.5 7.4% 7.8% 6.9%
Stabaek 4 55 57.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ODD Ballklubb 5 45 47.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryne 6 40 42.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Haugesund 1 1.0 100.0% 73.8% +0.3
Stromsgodset 2 2.0 100.0% 18.9% -0.1
Kongsvinger 3 3.0 100.0% 7.4% +0.3
Stabaek 4 4.0 100.0% 0.0% -0.2
ODD Ballklubb 5 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
Bryne 6 6.0 0.0% 0.0% -0.1
Ranheim 7 6.0 0.0% 0.0% +0.1
hodd 8 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Raufoss 16 20 16.0 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Asane 15 26 15.0 86.1% 81.5% 90.7%
Moss 14 29 14.0 8.3% 11.6% 5.0%
Sandnes ULF 13 29 13.0 5.4% 6.5% 4.2%
Sogndal 12 30 12.0 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Lyn 11 31 11.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Asane 15 15 27.9 27.6 9.2
Haugesund 1 1 66.0 66.3 6.7
Moss 14 14 30.7 30.4 6.6
Stromsgodset 2 2 63.6 63.5 5.7
Strommen 9 9 38.6 39.4 4.0
Lyn 11 11 34.3 33.6 3.5

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset 08 Nov 2026 224.1 46.5% 23.3% 30.2% Stabaek: Top 4 100.0% | Stromsgodset: Top 4 100.0%
Kongsvinger vs Stabaek 02 Nov 2026 219.3 57.1% 21.3% 21.6% Kongsvinger: Top 4 100.0% | Stabaek: Top 4 100.0%
Asane vs Haugesund 01 Nov 2026 205.0 21.3% 20.8% 58.0% Asane: Bottom Finish 86.1% | Haugesund: Top 4 100.0%
Raufoss vs Egersund 08 Nov 2026 127.7 36.5% 25.0% 38.5% Raufoss: Bottom Finish 100.0% | Egersund: Projection 0.0%
Bryne vs Kongsvinger 08 Nov 2026 125.3 31.6% 24.8% 43.8% Bryne: Projection 0.0% | Kongsvinger: Top 4 100.0%
Stromsgodset vs Moss 01 Nov 2026 119.0 76.3% 16.4% 7.4% Stromsgodset: Top 4 100.0% | Moss: Projection 0.0%
Lyn vs Raufoss 01 Nov 2026 117.1 61.9% 20.7% 17.5% Lyn: Projection 0.0% | Raufoss: Bottom Finish 100.0%
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb 08 Nov 2026 114.7 67.4% 19.3% 13.4% Haugesund: Top 4 100.0% | ODD Ballklubb: Projection 0.0%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for 1. Division. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 16
Goal Model Base 2.17 / 1.64
Form Model Base 1.41 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) Form Bottom Finish (15-16)
1 Haugesund 62 66.0 66.3 1 1 70.4% 77.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Stromsgodset 60 63.6 63.5 2 2 21.7% 16.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Kongsvinger 59 62.3 62.6 3 3 7.8% 6.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Stabaek 55 57.6 57.4 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 ODD Ballklubb 45 47.8 47.8 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Bryne 40 42.3 42.2 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Ranheim 38 41.8 41.9 6 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 hodd 38 40.6 40.6 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Strommen 36 38.6 39.4 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Egersund 35 38.1 38.0 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Lyn 31 34.3 33.6 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Sogndal 30 32.4 32.5 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
13 Sandnes ULF 29 31.5 31.4 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 4.2%
14 Moss 29 30.7 30.4 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 5.0%
15 Asane 26 27.9 27.6 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81.5% 90.7%
16 Raufoss 20 22.2 22.0 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Ranheim vs Sogndal 67.4% 14.8% 17.8% 3.31 1.78
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Asane vs Haugesund 24.4% 17.7% 58.0% 1.81 2.76
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Egersund vs Strommen 47.2% 21.8% 31.0% 1.96 1.56
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 hodd vs Bryne 43.3% 24.2% 32.5% 1.61 1.36
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Lyn vs Raufoss 59.8% 18.7% 21.5% 2.47 1.45
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 ODD Ballklubb vs Sandnes ULF 64.1% 19.4% 16.5% 2.21 1.03
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Stromsgodset vs Moss 74.6% 14.3% 11.1% 2.89 1.07
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Kongsvinger vs Stabaek 50.3% 20.0% 29.7% 2.29 1.75
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Bryne vs Kongsvinger 30.4% 23.1% 46.5% 1.40 1.77
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb 64.5% 17.4% 18.1% 2.62 1.36
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Moss vs Ranheim 32.6% 19.8% 47.6% 1.90 2.30
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Raufoss vs Egersund 36.1% 23.1% 40.8% 1.58 1.69
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandnes ULF vs Asane 52.9% 22.3% 24.8% 1.91 1.25
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sogndal vs hodd 50.8% 20.9% 28.3% 2.13 1.56
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Stabaek vs Stromsgodset 43.5% 21.5% 35.0% 1.95 1.74
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Strommen vs Lyn 41.7% 22.5% 35.8% 1.78 1.64

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Ranheim vs Sogndal 68.3% 21.6% 10.1% 1.09 0.73
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Asane vs Haugesund 18.2% 23.8% 58.0% 0.79 1.30
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Egersund vs Strommen 46.2% 25.6% 28.2% 0.98 1.02
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 hodd vs Bryne 52.7% 24.6% 22.6% 0.99 0.93
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Lyn vs Raufoss 64.0% 22.6% 13.4% 0.81 0.55
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 ODD Ballklubb vs Sandnes ULF 69.5% 21.3% 9.2% 1.12 0.74
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Stromsgodset vs Moss 77.9% 18.4% 3.6% 1.54 0.86
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 29 Kongsvinger vs Stabaek 63.9% 22.6% 13.4% 1.44 1.18
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Bryne vs Kongsvinger 32.7% 26.4% 41.0% 1.00 1.24
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb 70.3% 21.1% 8.6% 1.54 1.13
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Moss vs Ranheim 28.4% 25.7% 46.0% 0.69 1.00
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Raufoss vs Egersund 36.9% 26.9% 36.1% 0.61 0.78
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sandnes ULF vs Asane 55.0% 24.3% 20.7% 0.82 0.73
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Sogndal vs hodd 59.8% 23.4% 16.8% 0.95 0.77
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Stabaek vs Stromsgodset 49.5% 25.1% 25.4% 1.37 1.37
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Strommen vs Lyn 69.9% 21.2% 8.8% 1.15 0.75