44.3% average title probability
Morocco Botola Pro race map
Morocco Botola Pro Season Predictor 2026-2027
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
30.5% average title probability
90.5% average relegation risk
Gap score 50.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CODM Meknès | 3 | 10 | 13.7 | 44.3% | 40.1% | 48.4% |
| Kawkab Marrakech | 1 | 13 | 14.3 | 30.5% | 25.5% | 35.5% |
| FAR Rabat | 9 | 7 | 11.9 | 11.9% | 13.6% | 10.2% |
| Wydad AC | 2 | 11 | 12.5 | 10.4% | 15.5% | 5.2% |
| Raja Casablanca | 12 | 6 | 10.0 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Maghreb Fès | 5 | 8 | 11.2 | 1.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawkab Marrakech | 1 | 1.5 | 96.7% | 30.5% | +0.5 |
| CODM Meknès | 3 | 1.0 | 90.2% | 44.3% | +0.4 |
| Wydad AC | 2 | 2.0 | 62.9% | 10.4% | -0.5 |
| FAR Rabat | 9 | 2.0 | 58.2% | 11.9% | +1.2 |
| Maghreb Fès | 5 | 3.5 | 35.6% | 1.3% | +0.5 |
| Raja Casablanca | 12 | 8.5 | 18.7% | 1.7% | -0.5 |
| Ittihad Tanger | 10 | 8.0 | 13.5% | 0.0% | +0.3 |
| Widad Témara | 11 | 8.5 | 12.8% | 0.0% | -0.2 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR Khemis Zemamra | 16 | 1 | 16.0 | 90.5% | 85.2% | 95.8% |
| Moghreb Tetouan | 15 | 3 | 15.0 | 89.9% | 90.4% | 89.3% |
| Amal Tiznit | 14 | 4 | 14.0 | 16.6% | 20.6% | 12.6% |
| Renaissance Berkane | 13 | 4 | 13.0 | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Widad Témara | 11 | 6 | 8.5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Raja Casablanca | 12 | 6 | 8.5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassania Agadir | 10 | 5 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 50.0 |
| UTS Rabat | 11 | 7 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 40.0 |
| FAR Rabat | 1 | 3 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 24.2 |
| Raja Casablanca | 8 | 9 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| Wydad AC | 2 | 2 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 10.9 |
| CR Khemis Zemamra | 16 | 16 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 10.6 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès | 07 Nov 2026 | 195.4 | 11.9% | 22.1% | 66.0% | Moghreb Tetouan: Bottom Finish 89.9% | CODM Meknès: Top 4 90.2% |
| Kawkab Marrakech vs Wydad AC | 07 Nov 2026 | 186.4 | 32.6% | 27.1% | 40.5% | Kawkab Marrakech: Top 4 96.7% | Wydad AC: Top 4 62.9% |
| CODM Meknès vs FAR Rabat | 01 Nov 2026 | 175.0 | 40.9% | 26.8% | 32.4% | CODM Meknès: Top 4 90.2% | FAR Rabat: Top 4 58.2% |
| Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra | 01 Nov 2026 | 122.5 | 59.0% | 22.9% | 18.3% | Ittihad Tanger: Top 4 13.5% | CR Khemis Zemamra: Bottom Finish 90.5% |
| CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara | 08 Nov 2026 | 120.3 | 16.3% | 21.5% | 62.2% | CR Khemis Zemamra: Bottom Finish 90.5% | Widad Témara: Top 4 12.8% |
| FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca | 04 Nov 2026 | 98.0 | 53.2% | 27.5% | 19.4% | FAR Rabat: Top 4 58.2% | Raja Casablanca: Top 4 18.7% |
| FAR Rabat vs Difaa EL Jadida | 08 Nov 2026 | 83.0 | 51.9% | 23.8% | 24.5% | FAR Rabat: Top 4 58.2% | Difaa EL Jadida: Projection 0.0% |
| Widad Témara vs Maghreb Fès | 01 Nov 2026 | 73.6 | 28.0% | 28.0% | 44.1% | Widad Témara: Top 4 12.8% | Maghreb Fès: Top 4 35.6% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Botola Pro. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
13
Goal Model Base
0.98 / 1.33
Form Model Base
1.33 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) | Form Bottom Finish (15-16) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kawkab Marrakech | 13 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 2 | 1 | 25.5% | 35.5% | 94.9% | 98.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Wydad AC | 11 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 2 | 2 | 15.5% | 5.2% | 68.3% | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | CODM Meknès | 10 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 1 | 1 | 40.1% | 48.4% | 88.3% | 92.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Hassania Agadir | 8 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 10 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Maghreb Fès | 8 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 4 | 3 | 2.5% | 0.0% | 32.1% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Difaa EL Jadida | 8 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | FUS Rabat | 8 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | UTS Rabat | 8 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 11 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | FAR Rabat | 7 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 1 | 3 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 46.1% | 70.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Ittihad Tanger | 7 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 8 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Widad Témara | 6 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 12 | Raja Casablanca | 6 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 8 | 9 | 2.7% | 0.7% | 24.9% | 12.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Renaissance Berkane | 4 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 13 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| 14 | Amal Tiznit | 4 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 14 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.6% | 12.6% |
| 15 | Moghreb Tetouan | 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 15 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 90.4% | 89.3% |
| 16 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 16 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.2% | 95.8% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 1 | FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca | 36.8% | 33.6% | 29.6% | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | Widad Témara vs Maghreb Fès | 25.2% | 29.9% | 44.9% | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | CODM Meknès vs FAR Rabat | 31.5% | 28.5% | 40.0% | 1.04 | 1.21 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra | 44.6% | 25.5% | 30.0% | 1.51 | 1.19 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | Renaissance Berkane vs Raja Casablanca | 28.2% | 31.4% | 40.4% | 0.84 | 1.07 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Hassania Agadir vs Renaissance Berkane | 27.3% | 32.6% | 40.1% | 0.78 | 1.02 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | UTS Rabat vs Amal Tiznit | 30.0% | 32.7% | 37.2% | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Kawkab Marrakech vs Wydad AC | 23.3% | 27.8% | 49.0% | 0.85 | 1.37 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Maghreb Fès vs FUS Rabat | 30.2% | 36.6% | 33.2% | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès | 10.9% | 21.7% | 67.3% | 0.56 | 1.79 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara | 13.1% | 19.0% | 67.9% | 0.83 | 2.16 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | FAR Rabat vs Difaa EL Jadida | 38.7% | 25.1% | 36.3% | 1.45 | 1.39 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger | 37.2% | 28.9% | 33.9% | 1.15 | 1.08 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 1 | FAR Rabat vs Raja Casablanca | 69.6% | 21.3% | 9.1% | 1.39 | 1.00 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | Widad Témara vs Maghreb Fès | 30.7% | 26.0% | 43.2% | 0.81 | 1.08 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | CODM Meknès vs FAR Rabat | 50.2% | 25.0% | 24.8% | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra | 73.3% | 20.2% | 6.5% | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 6 | Renaissance Berkane vs Raja Casablanca | 42.5% | 26.2% | 31.4% | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Hassania Agadir vs Renaissance Berkane | 48.2% | 25.3% | 26.5% | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | UTS Rabat vs Amal Tiznit | 51.8% | 24.8% | 23.4% | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Kawkab Marrakech vs Wydad AC | 41.8% | 26.3% | 32.0% | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Maghreb Fès vs FUS Rabat | 54.5% | 24.3% | 21.1% | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Moghreb Tetouan vs CODM Meknès | 12.8% | 22.5% | 64.7% | 0.68 | 1.31 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | CR Khemis Zemamra vs Widad Témara | 19.4% | 24.0% | 56.5% | 0.59 | 1.07 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | FAR Rabat vs Difaa EL Jadida | 65.0% | 22.4% | 12.6% | 1.39 | 1.11 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 7 | Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger | 58.3% | 23.7% | 18.0% | 1.12 | 0.97 |