Ireland Premier Division race map

Ireland Premier Division Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Main Danger Team Sligo Rovers
99.7% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Dundalk
Gap score 15.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

2 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

0 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

1 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Sligo Rovers 10 21 10.0 99.7% 99.6% 99.8%
Waterford 9 27 9.0 76.5% 80.9% 72.1%
Dundalk 7 34 6.5 9.5% 4.4% 14.5%
Drogheda United 5 35 8.0 8.7% 8.5% 8.9%
Derry City 6 34 5.5 3.0% 3.4% 2.5%
Shelbourne 8 33 5.0 2.6% 3.2% 2.0%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Dundalk 6 7 44.3 41.3 15.0
Galway United 4 4 51.8 52.3 10.0
Derry City 6 5 44.0 43.9 10.0
Waterford 9 9 36.3 37.3 8.8
St Patrick's Athl. 1 1 67.2 68.6 7.0
Shamrock Rovers 2 2 66.7 67.6 5.1

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. 26 Jun 2026 227.1 38.8% 28.1% 33.2% Bohemians: Top 4 99.6% | St Patrick's Athl.: Top 4 100.0%
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers 04 Jul 2026 219.7 18.9% 25.6% 55.6% Sligo Rovers: Bottom Finish 99.7% | Shamrock Rovers: Top 4 100.0%
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers 11 Sep 2026 219.7 56.2% 25.5% 18.4% St Patrick's Athl.: Top 4 100.0% | Shamrock Rovers: Top 4 100.0%
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. 19 Sep 2026 217.2 14.1% 24.8% 61.1% Sligo Rovers: Bottom Finish 99.7% | St Patrick's Athl.: Top 4 100.0%
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers 19 Jun 2026 210.5 76.0% 19.1% 5.0% St Patrick's Athl.: Top 4 100.0% | Sligo Rovers: Bottom Finish 99.7%
Bohemians vs Galway United 02 Aug 2026 210.3 50.5% 26.0% 23.5% Bohemians: Top 4 99.6% | Galway United: Top 4 88.4%
Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United 26 Jun 2026 206.5 59.7% 24.2% 16.2% Shamrock Rovers: Top 4 100.0% | Galway United: Top 4 88.4%
St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United 03 Jul 2026 206.5 59.7% 24.6% 15.8% St Patrick's Athl.: Top 4 100.0% | Galway United: Top 4 88.4%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Premier Division. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 39
Goal Model Base 1.35 / 1.04
Form Model Base 1.33 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (9-10) Form Bottom Finish (9-10)
1 Shamrock Rovers 55 66.7 67.6 2 2 42.2% 37.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 St Patrick's Athl. 48 67.2 68.6 1 1 57.4% 62.9% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Bohemians 48 57.3 57.4 3 3 0.3% 0.0% 99.3% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Galway United 40 51.8 52.3 4 4 0.0% 0.0% 83.4% 93.4% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Drogheda United 35 41.7 41.6 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 8.5% 8.9%
6 Derry City 34 44.0 43.9 6 5 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 2.6% 3.4% 2.5%
7 Dundalk 34 44.3 41.3 6 7 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.5% 4.4% 14.5%
8 Shelbourne 33 43.9 44.6 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 3.5% 3.2% 2.0%
9 Waterford 27 36.3 37.3 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 80.9% 72.1%
10 Sligo Rovers 21 28.7 28.3 10 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.6% 99.8%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Derry City vs Bohemians 34.4% 27.6% 37.9% 1.16 1.24
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Galway United vs Dundalk 49.9% 23.2% 26.8% 1.78 1.25
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers 28.1% 26.4% 45.5% 1.07 1.44
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United 68.3% 19.6% 12.1% 2.05 0.72
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Waterford vs Sligo Rovers 54.0% 27.5% 18.5% 1.40 0.70
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Bohemians vs Dundalk 55.4% 22.5% 22.1% 1.88 1.10
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Drogheda United vs Shelbourne 34.8% 32.2% 33.0% 0.95 0.92
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Galway United vs Derry City 45.1% 27.9% 26.9% 1.32 0.95
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers 72.2% 20.5% 7.3% 1.81 0.39
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers 28.8% 26.8% 44.4% 1.07 1.40
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. 34.0% 30.2% 35.8% 1.02 1.05
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Derry City vs Drogheda United 51.1% 24.8% 24.2% 1.62 1.03
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Dundalk vs Waterford 56.6% 22.6% 20.8% 1.86 1.04
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United 51.4% 26.6% 22.0% 1.46 0.86
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne 22.2% 30.8% 47.0% 0.70 1.17
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Derry City vs Waterford 57.7% 23.0% 19.3% 1.80 0.93
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Drogheda United vs Bohemians 31.0% 28.6% 40.4% 1.03 1.21
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Shelbourne vs Dundalk 42.4% 23.4% 34.2% 1.69 1.50
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United 54.2% 26.7% 19.1% 1.46 0.75
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers 18.8% 27.3% 53.9% 0.71 1.42
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 24 Dundalk vs Drogheda United 49.7% 24.2% 26.1% 1.68 1.15
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 24 Galway United vs Sligo Rovers 58.8% 26.3% 14.9% 1.48 0.60
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 24 Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. 24.8% 27.3% 47.9% 0.92 1.39
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 25 Shelbourne vs Bohemians 27.6% 25.0% 47.4% 1.14 1.58
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 25 Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City 58.9% 24.7% 16.5% 1.61 0.72
24 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 25 Galway United vs Waterford 57.7% 22.5% 19.8% 1.86 0.99
24 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 25 St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk 68.3% 18.8% 12.9% 2.17 0.82
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 25 Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United 30.4% 27.7% 41.9% 1.06 1.30
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City 61.3% 24.5% 14.2% 1.61 0.63
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Bohemians vs Galway United 42.2% 28.3% 29.4% 1.26 1.00
21 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 28 Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne 51.4% 28.0% 20.6% 1.36 0.75
11 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 31 Shelbourne vs Derry City 38.9% 27.6% 33.5% 1.25 1.14
11 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 31 Waterford vs Dundalk 43.3% 23.5% 33.2% 1.69 1.46
11 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 31 St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers 50.8% 27.8% 21.4% 1.38 0.79
19 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 32 Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. 16.1% 27.4% 56.4% 0.61 1.41
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. 30.1% 30.2% 39.7% 0.93 1.12
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers 53.5% 27.5% 19.1% 1.40 0.72
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Waterford vs Galway United 31.9% 27.1% 41.0% 1.14 1.33
17 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 34 Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk 28.9% 25.9% 45.2% 1.13 1.48

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Derry City vs Bohemians 52.8% 24.6% 22.5% 1.13 1.07
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Galway United vs Dundalk 70.8% 21.0% 8.2% 1.14 0.71
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers 34.1% 26.6% 39.3% 0.91 1.13
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United 75.0% 19.6% 5.4% 1.34 0.79
12 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 20 Waterford vs Sligo Rovers 68.1% 21.7% 10.2% 0.93 0.58
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Bohemians vs Dundalk 73.4% 20.2% 6.4% 1.22 0.71
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Drogheda United vs Shelbourne 55.6% 24.2% 20.2% 1.00 0.90
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Galway United vs Derry City 66.0% 22.2% 11.8% 1.14 0.84
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers 79.7% 17.6% 2.7% 1.34 0.58
19 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 21 Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers 35.2% 26.8% 38.0% 0.93 1.13
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. 43.5% 26.0% 30.5% 1.22 1.30
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Derry City vs Drogheda United 67.7% 21.8% 10.5% 1.13 0.79
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Dundalk vs Waterford 49.9% 25.1% 25.1% 0.83 0.82
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United 67.9% 21.7% 10.4% 1.40 1.06
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 22 Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne 31.8% 26.2% 42.0% 0.64 0.90
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Derry City vs Waterford 66.3% 22.1% 11.6% 1.13 0.82
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Drogheda United vs Bohemians 44.6% 25.8% 29.6% 1.00 1.07
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Shelbourne vs Dundalk 60.9% 23.2% 15.8% 0.91 0.71
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 St Patrick's Athl. vs Galway United 65.2% 22.4% 12.4% 1.34 1.06
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 23 Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers 18.9% 23.9% 57.2% 0.64 1.13
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 24 Dundalk vs Drogheda United 52.1% 24.7% 23.2% 0.83 0.79
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 24 Galway United vs Sligo Rovers 75.0% 19.6% 5.4% 1.14 0.58
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 24 Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. 25.3% 25.1% 49.5% 0.93 1.30
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 25 Shelbourne vs Bohemians 38.2% 26.8% 35.1% 0.91 1.07
22 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 25 Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City 75.3% 19.5% 5.2% 1.40 0.84
24 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 25 Galway United vs Waterford 66.7% 22.0% 11.3% 1.14 0.82
24 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 25 St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk 76.8% 18.9% 4.3% 1.34 0.71
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 25 Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United 39.1% 26.6% 34.3% 0.64 0.79
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City 73.5% 20.1% 6.3% 1.34 0.84
02 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 26 Bohemians vs Galway United 58.8% 23.6% 17.6% 1.22 1.06
21 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 28 Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne 73.4% 20.2% 6.4% 1.40 0.90
11 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 31 Shelbourne vs Derry City 54.0% 24.4% 21.6% 0.91 0.84
11 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 31 Waterford vs Dundalk 61.9% 23.0% 15.1% 0.93 0.71
11 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 31 St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers 61.6% 23.1% 15.3% 1.34 1.13
19 Sep 2026 Regular Season - 32 Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. 12.0% 22.2% 65.8% 0.64 1.30
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. 37.1% 26.9% 36.0% 1.13 1.30
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers 67.4% 21.9% 10.8% 0.91 0.58
09 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 33 Waterford vs Galway United 40.2% 26.5% 33.4% 0.93 1.06
17 Oct 2026 Regular Season - 34 Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk 44.0% 25.9% 30.0% 0.64 0.71