Denmark Superliga race map

Denmark Superliga Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Closest Challenger FC Copenhagen
35.6% average title probability
Main Danger Team Sonderjyske
68.8% average relegation risk
Biggest Model Split Odense
Gap score 20.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

2 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

3 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

3 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
FC Midtjylland 1 28 47.2 62.1% 52.3% 71.8%
FC Copenhagen 2 26 44.7 35.6% 43.3% 27.8%
Viborg 3 20 36.0 1.2% 2.2% 0.1%
FC Nordsjaelland 4 20 36.5 1.1% 1.9% 0.3%
Brondby 5 19 33.2 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
AC Horsens 6 16 28.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Sonderjyske 12 8 12.0 68.8% 74.1% 63.4%
Lyngby 11 11 11.0 54.8% 49.2% 60.4%
Randers FC 10 11 11.0 53.8% 44.6% 62.9%
Silkeborg 9 12 8.5 9.2% 12.3% 6.0%
Aarhus 8 12 8.0 8.4% 10.5% 6.2%
Odense 7 14 7.0 4.3% 8.1% 0.4%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Odense 8 6 26.1 29.4 20.0
FC Midtjylland 1 1 45.4 48.9 19.5
Randers FC 11 11 20.8 18.0 18.3
FC Copenhagen 1 2 44.2 45.1 15.5
Lyngby 11 11 20.5 18.5 11.2
Sonderjyske 12 12 18.1 18.3 10.7

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
FC Copenhagen vs FC Midtjylland 29 Nov 2026 224.4 44.1% 25.6% 30.3% FC Copenhagen: Top 4 99.4% | FC Midtjylland: Top 4 99.8%
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland 01 Nov 2026 202.0 39.1% 27.8% 33.2% FC Nordsjaelland: Top 4 74.8% | FC Midtjylland: Top 4 99.8%
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen 22 Nov 2026 200.1 42.5% 26.4% 31.2% FC Nordsjaelland: Top 4 74.8% | FC Copenhagen: Top 4 99.4%
FC Copenhagen vs Viborg 21 Feb 2027 191.0 56.7% 24.3% 19.1% FC Copenhagen: Top 4 99.4% | Viborg: Top 4 72.1%
FC Midtjylland vs Viborg 07 Mar 2027 189.9 59.9% 22.8% 17.4% FC Midtjylland: Top 4 99.8% | Viborg: Top 4 72.1%
Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen 02 Nov 2026 187.0 20.6% 21.2% 58.3% Sonderjyske: Bottom Finish 68.8% | FC Copenhagen: Top 4 99.4%
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske 08 Nov 2026 178.4 78.3% 15.5% 6.3% FC Midtjylland: Top 4 99.8% | Sonderjyske: Bottom Finish 68.8%
Lyngby vs FC Copenhagen 21 Mar 2027 172.4 19.0% 21.5% 59.6% Lyngby: Bottom Finish 54.8% | FC Copenhagen: Top 4 99.4%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Superliga. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 59
Goal Model Base 1.66 / 1.41
Form Model Base 1.35 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (11-12) Form Bottom Finish (11-12)
1 FC Midtjylland 28 45.4 48.9 1 1 52.3% 71.8% 99.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 FC Copenhagen 26 44.2 45.1 1 2 43.3% 27.8% 99.1% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Viborg 20 36.3 35.6 3 3 2.2% 0.1% 73.8% 70.4% 0.0% 0.0%
4 FC Nordsjaelland 20 36.4 36.6 3 3 1.9% 0.3% 72.4% 77.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Brondby 19 32.8 33.5 5 5 0.3% 0.1% 33.4% 38.8% 0.2% 0.0%
6 AC Horsens 16 29.8 27.9 6 7 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 5.2% 1.0% 0.8%
7 Odense 14 26.1 29.4 8 6 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 8.1% 8.1% 0.4%
8 Aarhus 12 25.2 24.2 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.4% 10.5% 6.2%
9 Silkeborg 12 24.8 24.3 8 9 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 12.3% 6.0%
10 Randers FC 11 20.8 18.0 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 44.6% 62.9%
11 Lyngby 11 20.5 18.5 11 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 49.2% 60.4%
12 Sonderjyske 8 18.1 18.3 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.1% 63.4%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Odense vs Silkeborg 35.3% 25.4% 39.3% 1.34 1.43
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Viborg vs AC Horsens 50.2% 21.8% 27.9% 1.97 1.43
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland 40.3% 28.7% 31.0% 1.21 1.02
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Brondby vs Aarhus 51.2% 22.1% 26.7% 1.94 1.35
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen 19.8% 18.0% 62.3% 1.41 2.56
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Silkeborg vs Lyngby 47.7% 22.1% 30.2% 1.92 1.49
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Odense vs Viborg 25.7% 26.9% 47.4% 0.97 1.42
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 58.9% 20.9% 20.2% 2.07 1.13
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Aarhus vs AC Horsens 39.6% 22.1% 38.3% 1.79 1.75
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland 28.2% 24.0% 47.7% 1.24 1.68
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske 74.6% 14.6% 10.8% 2.80 1.00
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Aarhus vs Lyngby 53.7% 20.9% 25.4% 2.11 1.41
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 AC Horsens vs Silkeborg 49.6% 22.4% 28.0% 1.89 1.37
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Viborg vs Randers FC 55.7% 24.1% 20.2% 1.69 0.91
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Sonderjyske vs Odense 37.6% 25.1% 37.2% 1.42 1.41
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen 37.3% 27.3% 35.4% 1.25 1.21
23 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Brondby vs FC Midtjylland 32.8% 23.6% 43.6% 1.43 1.68
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Sonderjyske vs Brondby 36.9% 21.0% 42.1% 1.87 2.00
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Lyngby vs Viborg 27.7% 24.5% 47.8% 1.18 1.63
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Randers FC vs AC Horsens 25.6% 21.4% 52.9% 1.37 2.03
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Copenhagen vs FC Midtjylland 44.0% 25.3% 30.7% 1.51 1.22
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Silkeborg vs Aarhus 42.2% 24.6% 33.1% 1.55 1.35
30 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Odense vs FC Nordsjaelland 30.5% 24.8% 44.7% 1.26 1.57
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Aarhus vs Randers FC 46.7% 25.5% 27.8% 1.53 1.12
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Midtjylland vs Silkeborg 60.3% 20.2% 19.5% 2.16 1.16
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby 63.1% 20.7% 16.1% 2.01 0.91
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Brondby vs Odense 46.2% 25.9% 27.9% 1.49 1.10
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 AC Horsens vs FC Copenhagen 28.2% 21.9% 49.9% 1.43 1.95
07 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Viborg vs Sonderjyske 71.0% 16.7% 12.3% 2.47 0.93
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Copenhagen vs Viborg 48.4% 26.1% 25.6% 1.49 1.01
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Lyngby vs Brondby 34.9% 22.3% 42.8% 1.64 1.83
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Midtjylland vs Odense 54.7% 24.6% 20.7% 1.64 0.91
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Nordsjaelland vs AC Horsens 50.8% 24.0% 25.2% 1.70 1.13
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Silkeborg vs Randers FC 41.6% 26.4% 32.0% 1.39 1.18
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Sonderjyske vs Aarhus 41.3% 22.0% 36.7% 1.85 1.73
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Aarhus vs FC Copenhagen 26.7% 22.5% 50.8% 1.31 1.88
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Brondby vs FC Nordsjaelland 45.0% 22.5% 32.5% 1.83 1.54
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 AC Horsens vs FC Midtjylland 32.1% 23.9% 44.0% 1.38 1.65
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Odense vs Lyngby 40.6% 23.5% 35.9% 1.64 1.53
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Randers FC vs Sonderjyske 46.5% 23.7% 29.8% 1.71 1.33
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Viborg vs Silkeborg 56.9% 22.1% 21.0% 1.91 1.08
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Copenhagen vs Randers FC 60.2% 22.5% 17.3% 1.83 0.86
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Lyngby vs AC Horsens 30.2% 20.5% 49.3% 1.69 2.18
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Midtjylland vs Viborg 46.8% 25.2% 28.0% 1.56 1.15
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Nordsjaelland vs Sonderjyske 69.7% 18.7% 11.6% 2.13 0.74
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Odense vs Aarhus 35.9% 25.8% 38.3% 1.33 1.38
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Silkeborg vs Brondby 38.4% 23.7% 37.9% 1.57 1.56
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland 41.8% 23.9% 34.3% 1.62 1.45
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Copenhagen vs Silkeborg 61.7% 20.6% 17.8% 2.07 1.02
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 AC Horsens vs Odense 45.2% 26.4% 28.4% 1.43 1.08
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Randers FC vs FC Midtjylland 19.5% 22.6% 57.9% 0.97 1.84
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Sonderjyske vs Lyngby 46.8% 19.9% 33.3% 2.28 1.92
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Viborg vs Brondby 54.0% 22.2% 23.8% 1.91 1.20
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Brondby vs AC Horsens 42.7% 21.0% 36.3% 2.02 1.86
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Lyngby vs FC Copenhagen 19.1% 19.0% 61.9% 1.24 2.34
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus 60.7% 20.3% 19.0% 2.14 1.11
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Nordsjaelland vs Viborg 44.0% 29.9% 26.0% 1.19 0.84
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Odense vs Randers FC 35.5% 27.7% 36.8% 1.18 1.21
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Silkeborg vs Sonderjyske 56.3% 21.3% 22.4% 2.03 1.21

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Odense vs Silkeborg 61.4% 23.1% 15.4% 1.02 0.81
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Viborg vs AC Horsens 60.3% 23.3% 16.3% 1.18 0.99
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland 37.9% 26.8% 35.3% 1.27 1.44
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Brondby vs Aarhus 68.1% 21.7% 10.2% 1.14 0.79
02 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen 21.3% 24.4% 54.3% 0.85 1.30
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Silkeborg vs Lyngby 61.8% 23.1% 15.2% 0.90 0.69
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Odense vs Viborg 44.6% 25.9% 29.6% 1.02 1.09
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Copenhagen vs Brondby 68.7% 21.5% 9.8% 1.37 1.00
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Aarhus vs AC Horsens 49.3% 25.2% 25.6% 0.99 0.99
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland 29.5% 25.8% 44.7% 0.70 0.99
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske 81.9% 16.3% 1.8% 1.57 0.68
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Aarhus vs Lyngby 66.3% 22.1% 11.6% 0.99 0.69
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 AC Horsens vs Silkeborg 60.0% 23.4% 16.6% 0.99 0.81
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Viborg vs Randers FC 73.3% 20.2% 6.5% 1.18 0.68
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Sonderjyske vs Odense 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% 0.85 0.97
22 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen 47.6% 25.4% 27.0% 1.27 1.30
23 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Brondby vs FC Midtjylland 29.5% 25.8% 44.7% 1.14 1.44
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Sonderjyske vs Brondby 39.0% 26.6% 34.3% 0.85 1.00
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Lyngby vs Viborg 30.3% 26.0% 43.7% 0.80 1.09
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Randers FC vs AC Horsens 29.7% 25.9% 44.4% 0.70 0.99
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 FC Copenhagen vs FC Midtjylland 44.2% 25.9% 29.9% 1.37 1.44
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Silkeborg vs Aarhus 56.1% 24.1% 19.8% 0.90 0.79
30 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Odense vs FC Nordsjaelland 50.8% 24.9% 24.3% 1.02 0.99
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Aarhus vs Randers FC 66.6% 22.0% 11.3% 0.99 0.68
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Midtjylland vs Silkeborg 79.6% 17.6% 2.8% 1.57 0.81
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby 75.8% 19.3% 4.9% 1.27 0.69
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Brondby vs Odense 59.1% 23.6% 17.3% 1.14 0.97
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 AC Horsens vs FC Copenhagen 29.1% 25.8% 45.1% 0.99 1.30
07 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Viborg vs Sonderjyske 73.1% 20.3% 6.6% 1.18 0.68
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Copenhagen vs Viborg 65.0% 22.4% 12.6% 1.37 1.09
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Lyngby vs Brondby 35.6% 26.9% 37.5% 0.80 1.00
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Midtjylland vs Odense 76.1% 19.2% 4.7% 1.57 0.97
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Nordsjaelland vs AC Horsens 65.2% 22.4% 12.4% 1.27 0.99
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Silkeborg vs Randers FC 62.1% 23.0% 14.9% 0.90 0.68
21 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Sonderjyske vs Aarhus 53.3% 24.5% 22.1% 0.85 0.79
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Aarhus vs FC Copenhagen 29.1% 25.8% 45.1% 0.99 1.30
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Brondby vs FC Nordsjaelland 58.0% 23.8% 18.2% 1.14 0.99
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 AC Horsens vs FC Midtjylland 21.3% 24.4% 54.3% 0.99 1.44
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Odense vs Lyngby 67.4% 21.9% 10.7% 1.02 0.69
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Randers FC vs Sonderjyske 50.0% 25.1% 25.0% 0.70 0.68
28 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Viborg vs Silkeborg 68.5% 21.6% 9.9% 1.18 0.81
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Copenhagen vs Randers FC 78.1% 18.3% 3.5% 1.37 0.68
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Lyngby vs AC Horsens 36.1% 26.9% 37.0% 0.80 0.99
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Midtjylland vs Viborg 72.9% 20.3% 6.7% 1.57 1.09
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 FC Nordsjaelland vs Sonderjyske 75.9% 19.3% 4.8% 1.27 0.68
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Odense vs Aarhus 62.8% 22.9% 14.4% 1.02 0.79
07 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Silkeborg vs Brondby 42.2% 26.2% 31.6% 0.90 1.00
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland 49.0% 25.2% 25.8% 0.99 0.99
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Copenhagen vs Silkeborg 74.8% 19.7% 5.5% 1.37 0.81
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 AC Horsens vs Odense 50.3% 25.0% 24.7% 0.99 0.97
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Randers FC vs FC Midtjylland 9.4% 21.4% 69.1% 0.70 1.44
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Sonderjyske vs Lyngby 59.4% 23.5% 17.1% 0.85 0.69
14 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Viborg vs Brondby 59.9% 23.4% 16.7% 1.18 1.00
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Brondby vs AC Horsens 58.2% 23.7% 18.0% 1.14 0.99
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Lyngby vs FC Copenhagen 18.8% 23.9% 57.3% 0.80 1.30
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Midtjylland vs Aarhus 80.1% 17.4% 2.6% 1.57 0.79
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 FC Nordsjaelland vs Viborg 60.5% 23.3% 16.2% 1.27 1.09
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Odense vs Randers FC 67.7% 21.8% 10.5% 1.02 0.68
21 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Silkeborg vs Sonderjyske 61.9% 23.0% 15.1% 0.90 0.68