Denmark 1st Division race map

Denmark 1st Division Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Title Favorite Hvidovre
78.1% average title probability
Closest Challenger Vejle
12.8% average title probability
Biggest Model Split Hvidovre
Gap score 25.7 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

2 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

1 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

4 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

Title Race

The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.

Team Pos Pts Exp Pts Avg Title Goal Form
Hvidovre 1 29 46.5 78.1% 65.2% 90.9%
Vejle 3 23 40.4 12.8% 20.3% 5.2%
FC Fredericia 2 23 39.2 8.9% 14.0% 3.8%
AB Copenhagen 4 18 33.2 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Hobro 5 16 25.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Aarhus Fremad 6 15 28.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Top 4 Battle

Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.

Team Pos Avg Finish Avg Top 4 Avg Title Momentum
Hvidovre 1 1.0 100.0% 78.1% +4.0
Vejle 3 2.0 98.6% 12.8% +0.6
FC Fredericia 2 3.0 98.0% 8.9% +0.1
AB Copenhagen 4 4.0 70.8% 0.3% +1.9
Aarhus Fremad 6 5.0 14.1% 0.0% -0.8
Kolding IF 7 5.5 6.8% 0.0% 0.0
Aalborg 8 7.5 4.6% 0.0% -2.5
Hobro 5 7.5 4.0% 0.0% -0.3

Relegation Watch

The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.

Team Pos Pts Avg Finish Avg Bottom Finish Goal Form
Vendsyssel FF 11 11 12.0 53.8% 50.9% 56.7%
Esbjerg 12 11 12.0 51.8% 47.9% 55.7%
HB Koge 10 11 11.5 42.7% 45.7% 39.6%
Hillerød 9 12 9.0 21.6% 23.4% 19.7%
Aalborg 8 15 7.5 12.1% 8.7% 15.4%
Hobro 5 16 7.5 10.1% 12.7% 7.4%

Model Disagreement

The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.

Team Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Gap
Hvidovre 1 1 44.5 48.5 25.7
AB Copenhagen 4 4 32.2 34.1 23.9
Vejle 2 2 40.1 40.7 15.1
Aalborg 7 8 26.5 24.0 12.5
FC Fredericia 3 3 39.1 39.2 10.2
Hobro 8 7 26.0 25.7 10.0

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
FC Fredericia vs Hvidovre 06 Dec 2026 225.5 39.0% 27.6% 33.5% FC Fredericia: Top 4 98.0% | Hvidovre: Top 4 100.0%
Vejle vs FC Fredericia 06 Nov 2026 221.7 44.2% 24.4% 31.4% Vejle: Top 4 98.6% | FC Fredericia: Top 4 98.0%
Hvidovre vs Vejle 20 Feb 2027 221.7 48.7% 24.5% 26.9% Hvidovre: Top 4 100.0% | Vejle: Top 4 98.6%
AB Copenhagen vs Vejle 27 Nov 2026 195.3 42.4% 27.1% 30.6% AB Copenhagen: Top 4 70.8% | Vejle: Top 4 98.6%
Hvidovre vs AB Copenhagen 13 Mar 2027 189.7 57.9% 22.7% 19.5% Hvidovre: Top 4 100.0% | AB Copenhagen: Top 4 70.8%
Vendsyssel FF vs FC Fredericia 19 Mar 2027 172.1 19.9% 25.5% 54.8% Vendsyssel FF: Bottom Finish 53.8% | FC Fredericia: Top 4 98.0%
Vendsyssel FF vs Vejle 01 Nov 2026 171.9 18.7% 24.7% 56.7% Vendsyssel FF: Bottom Finish 53.8% | Vejle: Top 4 98.6%
Esbjerg vs Vejle 06 Mar 2027 171.9 23.7% 24.2% 52.2% Esbjerg: Bottom Finish 51.8% | Vejle: Top 4 98.6%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for 1st Division. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 56
Goal Model Base 1.43 / 1.3
Form Model Base 1.31 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (11-12) Form Bottom Finish (11-12)
1 Hvidovre 29 44.5 48.5 1 1 65.2% 90.9% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 FC Fredericia 23 39.1 39.2 3 3 14.0% 3.8% 97.3% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Vejle 23 40.1 40.7 2 2 20.3% 5.2% 97.8% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 AB Copenhagen 18 32.2 34.1 4 4 0.4% 0.1% 58.8% 82.7% 0.3% 0.0%
5 Hobro 16 26.0 25.7 8 7 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 2.5% 12.7% 7.4%
6 Aarhus Fremad 15 28.6 27.8 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 9.8% 3.6% 2.9%
7 Kolding IF 15 26.9 26.9 6 5 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 4.2% 6.9% 2.7%
8 Aalborg 15 26.5 24.0 7 8 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 1.3% 8.7% 15.4%
9 Hillerød 12 24.1 23.6 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 23.4% 19.7%
10 HB Koge 11 21.7 21.7 12 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 45.7% 39.6%
11 Vendsyssel FF 11 21.5 20.6 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 50.9% 56.7%
12 Esbjerg 11 21.7 20.9 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 47.9% 55.7%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Vendsyssel FF vs Vejle 18.2% 25.3% 56.5% 0.76 1.57
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød 42.9% 27.8% 29.2% 1.30 1.02
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Vejle vs FC Fredericia 36.3% 24.1% 39.6% 1.49 1.56
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 AB Copenhagen vs Vendsyssel FF 51.3% 24.6% 24.1% 1.64 1.04
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 HB Koge vs Aalborg 33.4% 21.8% 44.8% 1.65 1.93
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Hillerød vs Kolding IF 41.2% 26.5% 32.4% 1.38 1.19
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Hobro vs Esbjerg 45.6% 24.8% 29.6% 1.58 1.23
09 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad 45.5% 29.6% 24.9% 1.22 0.82
19 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Fredericia vs Hillerød 62.7% 22.3% 15.0% 1.81 0.75
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro 47.6% 25.0% 27.3% 1.58 1.13
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Kolding IF vs Aalborg 38.5% 24.6% 36.9% 1.49 1.45
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Vejle vs HB Koge 59.8% 18.4% 21.7% 2.52 1.50
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Vendsyssel FF vs Hvidovre 14.8% 22.8% 62.5% 0.72 1.77
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Esbjerg vs AB Copenhagen 32.6% 23.9% 43.5% 1.40 1.65
26 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Aalborg vs Esbjerg 42.9% 27.0% 30.2% 1.36 1.10
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 AB Copenhagen vs Vejle 34.3% 29.1% 36.6% 1.08 1.12
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Hvidovre vs Kolding IF 50.3% 24.5% 25.2% 1.64 1.09
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Hillerød vs Vendsyssel FF 44.3% 23.7% 32.0% 1.68 1.39
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad 34.8% 28.8% 36.4% 1.11 1.14
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Hobro vs FC Fredericia 23.7% 26.5% 49.7% 0.92 1.46
04 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Aarhus Fremad vs AB Copenhagen 36.2% 27.7% 36.1% 1.20 1.20
04 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Kolding IF vs Esbjerg 51.3% 23.7% 25.0% 1.73 1.13
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Hillerød vs HB Koge 46.6% 23.4% 30.0% 1.74 1.36
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Vendsyssel FF vs Aalborg 25.2% 25.0% 49.8% 1.06 1.59
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Vejle vs Hobro 64.1% 17.1% 18.8% 2.72 1.46
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Fredericia vs Hvidovre 39.5% 28.4% 32.1% 1.22 1.07
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Aalborg vs AB Copenhagen 31.7% 27.5% 40.8% 1.10 1.29
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad 33.3% 30.3% 36.4% 1.00 1.06
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Fredericia vs Kolding IF 57.9% 24.8% 17.3% 1.61 0.75
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Hobro vs Hillerød 40.5% 26.2% 33.3% 1.39 1.23
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Hvidovre vs Vejle 35.8% 25.8% 38.4% 1.32 1.37
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 HB Koge vs Vendsyssel FF 40.1% 22.0% 37.9% 1.82 1.76
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Aarhus Fremad vs FC Fredericia 26.3% 29.6% 44.1% 0.86 1.21
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 AB Copenhagen vs HB Koge 53.5% 24.0% 22.5% 1.71 1.02
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Hillerød vs Hvidovre 23.3% 24.1% 52.6% 1.04 1.69
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Kolding IF vs Hobro 50.9% 22.8% 26.3% 1.84 1.26
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Vejle vs Aalborg 49.9% 20.4% 29.7% 2.21 1.68
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Vendsyssel FF vs Esbjerg 36.0% 27.2% 36.8% 1.23 1.24
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Aalborg vs Aarhus Fremad 31.2% 35.1% 33.6% 0.79 0.83
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 AB Copenhagen vs Hillerød 51.9% 25.9% 22.2% 1.52 0.89
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Esbjerg vs Vejle 23.1% 23.4% 53.5% 1.08 1.77
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Hvidovre vs Hobro 60.7% 19.6% 19.6% 2.25 1.21
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 HB Koge vs FC Fredericia 23.5% 23.2% 53.2% 1.11 1.79
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Vendsyssel FF vs Kolding IF 28.4% 28.8% 42.9% 0.95 1.24
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Aarhus Fremad vs Vendsyssel FF 41.9% 26.2% 31.9% 1.41 1.19
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Esbjerg vs Hillerød 40.1% 24.6% 35.2% 1.52 1.41
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Fredericia vs Aalborg 56.7% 23.2% 20.1% 1.78 0.96
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Hobro vs HB Koge 41.3% 24.4% 34.3% 1.56 1.40
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Hvidovre vs AB Copenhagen 47.5% 23.7% 28.8% 1.71 1.28
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Vejle vs Kolding IF 53.2% 21.7% 25.1% 1.99 1.31
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Aalborg vs Hvidovre 19.2% 25.4% 55.4% 0.80 1.56
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 AB Copenhagen vs Hobro 57.3% 22.7% 20.1% 1.84 0.99
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Hillerød vs Vejle 27.9% 25.8% 46.4% 1.10 1.50
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 HB Koge vs Esbjerg 47.4% 22.1% 30.5% 1.92 1.51
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Kolding IF vs Aarhus Fremad 37.7% 32.2% 30.1% 1.00 0.86
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Vendsyssel FF vs FC Fredericia 18.0% 26.5% 55.6% 0.71 1.48

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Vendsyssel FF vs Vejle 19.2% 24.0% 56.9% 0.75 1.23
01 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 13 Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød 59.8% 23.4% 16.7% 0.94 0.76
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Vejle vs FC Fredericia 52.1% 24.7% 23.2% 1.23 1.18
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 AB Copenhagen vs Vendsyssel FF 72.4% 20.5% 7.1% 1.25 0.78
06 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 HB Koge vs Aalborg 46.7% 25.5% 27.8% 0.83 0.87
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Hillerød vs Kolding IF 59.8% 23.4% 16.7% 1.04 0.87
07 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Hobro vs Esbjerg 58.4% 23.7% 17.9% 0.89 0.74
09 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 14 Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad 75.8% 19.3% 4.9% 1.44 0.85
19 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 FC Fredericia vs Hillerød 75.7% 19.3% 4.9% 1.35 0.76
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Aarhus Fremad vs Hobro 54.7% 24.3% 21.0% 0.94 0.85
20 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Kolding IF vs Aalborg 62.9% 22.8% 14.2% 1.10 0.87
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Vejle vs HB Koge 69.2% 21.4% 9.4% 1.23 0.85
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Vendsyssel FF vs Hvidovre 9.0% 21.3% 69.7% 0.75 1.50
21 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 15 Esbjerg vs AB Copenhagen 32.7% 26.4% 41.0% 0.84 1.09
26 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Aalborg vs Esbjerg 52.4% 24.7% 22.9% 0.79 0.74
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 AB Copenhagen vs Vejle 50.4% 25.0% 24.6% 1.25 1.23
27 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Hvidovre vs Kolding IF 75.4% 19.5% 5.1% 1.44 0.87
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Hillerød vs Vendsyssel FF 64.3% 22.6% 13.1% 1.04 0.78
28 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad 47.7% 25.4% 26.9% 0.83 0.85
29 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 16 Hobro vs FC Fredericia 30.0% 25.9% 44.0% 0.89 1.18
04 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Aarhus Fremad vs AB Copenhagen 38.5% 26.7% 34.8% 0.94 1.09
04 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Kolding IF vs Esbjerg 68.5% 21.6% 9.9% 1.10 0.74
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Hillerød vs HB Koge 60.8% 23.2% 15.9% 1.04 0.85
05 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Vendsyssel FF vs Aalborg 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% 0.75 0.87
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 Vejle vs Hobro 69.2% 21.4% 9.4% 1.23 0.85
06 Dec 2026 Regular Season - 17 FC Fredericia vs Hvidovre 38.4% 26.7% 34.9% 1.35 1.50
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Aalborg vs AB Copenhagen 29.6% 25.9% 44.5% 0.79 1.09
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad 48.5% 25.3% 26.2% 0.84 0.85
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 FC Fredericia vs Kolding IF 72.7% 20.4% 6.9% 1.35 0.87
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Hobro vs Hillerød 57.4% 23.9% 18.7% 0.89 0.76
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 Hvidovre vs Vejle 61.6% 23.1% 15.3% 1.44 1.23
20 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 18 HB Koge vs Vendsyssel FF 52.5% 24.7% 22.8% 0.83 0.78
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Aarhus Fremad vs FC Fredericia 32.6% 26.4% 41.1% 0.94 1.18
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 AB Copenhagen vs HB Koge 70.1% 21.2% 8.8% 1.25 0.85
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Hillerød vs Hvidovre 20.7% 24.3% 55.1% 1.04 1.50
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Kolding IF vs Hobro 63.9% 22.6% 13.5% 1.10 0.85
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Vejle vs Aalborg 68.5% 21.6% 9.9% 1.23 0.87
27 Feb 2027 Regular Season - 19 Vendsyssel FF vs Esbjerg 49.3% 25.2% 25.5% 0.75 0.74
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Aalborg vs Aarhus Fremad 45.1% 25.8% 29.2% 0.79 0.85
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 AB Copenhagen vs Hillerød 73.0% 20.3% 6.7% 1.25 0.76
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Esbjerg vs Vejle 24.3% 24.9% 50.8% 0.84 1.23
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Hvidovre vs Hobro 75.9% 19.3% 4.8% 1.44 0.85
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 HB Koge vs FC Fredericia 26.4% 25.3% 48.2% 0.83 1.18
06 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 20 Vendsyssel FF vs Kolding IF 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% 0.75 0.87
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Aarhus Fremad vs Vendsyssel FF 58.8% 23.6% 17.6% 0.94 0.78
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Esbjerg vs Hillerød 54.4% 24.4% 21.2% 0.84 0.76
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 FC Fredericia vs Aalborg 72.7% 20.4% 6.9% 1.35 0.87
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Hobro vs HB Koge 52.0% 24.7% 23.3% 0.89 0.85
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Hvidovre vs AB Copenhagen 68.2% 21.7% 10.1% 1.44 1.09
13 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 21 Vejle vs Kolding IF 68.5% 21.6% 9.9% 1.23 0.87
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Aalborg vs Hvidovre 10.4% 21.8% 67.8% 0.79 1.50
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 AB Copenhagen vs Hobro 70.1% 21.2% 8.7% 1.25 0.85
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Hillerød vs Vejle 36.1% 26.9% 37.0% 1.04 1.23
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 HB Koge vs Esbjerg 54.8% 24.3% 20.9% 0.83 0.74
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Kolding IF vs Aarhus Fremad 63.7% 22.7% 13.6% 1.10 0.85
19 Mar 2027 Regular Season - 22 Vendsyssel FF vs FC Fredericia 21.7% 24.5% 53.9% 0.75 1.18