China Super League race map

China Super League Season Predictor 2026-2027

A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.

Biggest Model Split Dalian Zhixing
Gap score 30.0 between the two models

Race Storylines

Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.

4 live title contenders

Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.

5 clubs still fighting for top 4

These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.

1 teams in real drop trouble

Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.

High-Leverage Fixtures

The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.

Match Date Race Heat Home Draw Away Why It Matters
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City 05 Jul 2026 203.5 22.4% 23.8% 54.0% Qingdao Jonoon: Bottom Finish 98.6% | Chengdu Better City: Top 4 84.2%
Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City 08 Nov 2026 188.9 57.7% 22.8% 19.7% Shandong Luneng: Top 4 85.7% | Chengdu Better City: Top 4 84.2%
Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan 26 Jul 2026 177.4 40.0% 25.4% 34.6% Chengdu Better City: Top 4 84.2% | Beijing Guoan: Top 4 66.2%
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng 04 Jul 2026 174.4 50.0% 23.0% 27.0% Beijing Guoan: Top 4 66.2% | Shandong Luneng: Top 4 85.7%
Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng 18 Jul 2026 173.5 55.2% 23.5% 21.4% Dalian Zhixing: Top 4 67.6% | Shandong Luneng: Top 4 85.7%
Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns 04 Jul 2026 161.6 66.4% 20.1% 13.6% Dalian Zhixing: Top 4 67.6% | Wuhan Three Towns: Bottom Finish 78.9%
Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns 27 Jun 2026 161.1 64.5% 19.8% 15.8% Beijing Guoan: Top 4 66.2% | Wuhan Three Towns: Bottom Finish 78.9%
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan 11 Jul 2026 149.2 42.3% 23.5% 34.3% Shanghai Shenhua: Top 4 57.0% | Beijing Guoan: Top 4 66.2%

Full Simulation Tables

The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.

This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Super League. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.

Simulations 50,000
Remaining Fixtures 49
Goal Model Base 1.74 / 1.37
Form Model Base 1.36 PPG

Model Comparison

# Team Current Pts Goal Exp Pts Form Exp Pts Goal Finish Form Finish Goal Title Form Title Goal Top 4 Form Top 4 Goal Bottom Finish (15-16) Form Bottom Finish (15-16)
1 Chengdu Better City 45 54.2 53.3 1 1 40.0% 22.4% 90.3% 78.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Shandong Luneng 44 53.3 54.7 1 1 26.2% 34.3% 83.6% 87.8% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Dalian Zhixing 42 51.0 53.6 5 2 7.9% 18.7% 58.8% 76.4% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Shanghai Shenhua 41 50.8 50.7 3 6 10.4% 6.1% 64.1% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Beijing Guoan 41 50.9 52.3 5 5 12.5% 14.9% 64.2% 68.1% 0.0% 0.0%
6 SHANGHAI SIPG 39 48.8 50.4 6 6 2.9% 3.7% 38.0% 39.7% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Yunnan Yukun 33 42.5 42.3 7 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Chongqing Tongliang Long 31 38.6 38.2 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
9 Tianjin Teda 29 37.4 37.5 9 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1%
10 Hangzhou Greentown 29 38.8 38.8 8 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1%
11 Qingdao Youth Island 29 35.9 35.3 12 12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.4%
12 Sichuan Jiuniu 29 36.2 36.7 12 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.2%
13 Henan Jianye 27 34.1 33.0 13 13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 3.6%
14 Shenyang Urban 25 32.5 30.7 14 14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 9.8%
15 Wuhan Three Towns 20 28.3 26.2 15 15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.4% 87.3%
16 Qingdao Jonoon 17 23.4 22.7 16 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.6% 98.5%

Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Proj G H Proj G A
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun 34.0% 21.7% 44.3% 1.69 1.94
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng 41.7% 22.1% 36.2% 1.84 1.70
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG 28.6% 26.2% 45.2% 1.10 1.45
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City 35.9% 25.5% 38.6% 1.35 1.41
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns 56.6% 19.0% 24.4% 2.46 1.60
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda 35.5% 29.1% 35.5% 1.10 1.10
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown 43.1% 26.6% 30.3% 1.40 1.12
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua 43.9% 23.2% 32.9% 1.73 1.47
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye 54.4% 21.3% 24.3% 2.05 1.31
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 39.6% 27.3% 33.0% 1.29 1.15
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG 30.9% 27.8% 41.3% 1.07 1.28
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng 52.5% 20.6% 26.9% 2.17 1.53
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns 55.4% 21.4% 23.2% 2.02 1.24
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu 47.5% 24.7% 27.7% 1.61 1.17
05 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City 22.8% 23.0% 54.3% 1.10 1.82
05 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown 64.4% 16.6% 19.0% 2.86 1.57
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun 67.3% 16.3% 16.4% 2.78 1.35
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye 39.0% 23.1% 37.9% 1.65 1.62
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon 59.6% 20.2% 20.1% 2.17 1.19
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan 42.4% 20.8% 36.8% 2.06 1.91
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island 48.5% 25.1% 26.4% 1.57 1.09
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 53.1% 26.6% 20.3% 1.47 0.80
12 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban 42.6% 24.0% 33.4% 1.62 1.41
12 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing 52.2% 23.9% 23.9% 1.71 1.08
17 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban 59.7% 19.6% 20.8% 2.28 1.29
17 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon 49.8% 25.9% 24.2% 1.51 0.97
17 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Yunnan Yukun vs SHANGHAI SIPG 41.6% 22.4% 36.0% 1.79 1.66
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown 45.8% 24.3% 29.9% 1.64 1.28
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Qingdao Youth Island vs Chengdu Better City 31.9% 29.5% 38.6% 1.01 1.14
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng 51.4% 23.3% 25.3% 1.79 1.19
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda 51.0% 22.1% 26.9% 1.93 1.35
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu 48.1% 23.2% 28.7% 1.78 1.33
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda 25.0% 25.4% 49.5% 1.03 1.55
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island 47.7% 23.8% 28.5% 1.70 1.27
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua 45.5% 22.7% 31.9% 1.82 1.50
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 34.4% 27.2% 38.4% 1.19 1.28
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu 63.1% 19.5% 17.4% 2.21 1.08
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan 44.5% 23.9% 31.6% 1.66 1.37
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye 61.5% 19.8% 18.6% 2.19 1.13
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing 43.2% 23.4% 33.4% 1.70 1.47
08 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 22 Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns 47.1% 20.8% 32.0% 2.11 1.73
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 48.6% 25.7% 25.7% 1.52 1.03
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda 44.8% 27.8% 27.4% 1.33 0.97
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu 39.8% 25.4% 34.8% 1.44 1.33
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City 50.1% 23.1% 26.9% 1.81 1.27
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban 59.5% 21.5% 19.1% 1.97 1.02
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island 63.4% 18.5% 18.1% 2.41 1.23
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns 55.3% 19.3% 25.3% 2.40 1.60
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye 46.8% 22.9% 30.2% 1.80 1.41

Points-Form Fixture Probabilities

Date Round Match Home Draw Away Home Form Away Form
26 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun 35.8% 26.9% 37.3% 0.65 0.84
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Shenyang Urban vs Shandong Luneng 21.7% 24.5% 53.8% 0.84 1.28
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Henan Jianye vs SHANGHAI SIPG 14.2% 22.8% 63.0% 0.76 1.36
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City 42.2% 26.2% 31.6% 0.98 1.08
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Beijing Guoan vs Wuhan Three Towns 72.3% 20.5% 7.2% 1.25 0.79
27 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Tianjin Teda 38.8% 26.7% 34.5% 0.91 1.06
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown 50.5% 25.0% 24.5% 0.91 0.89
28 Jun 2026 Regular Season - 16 Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua 60.9% 23.2% 15.9% 1.44 1.24
03 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye 62.0% 23.0% 15.0% 1.08 0.86
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 42.4% 26.2% 31.5% 0.84 0.94
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG 20.8% 24.3% 54.9% 0.91 1.36
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng 47.5% 25.4% 27.1% 1.25 1.28
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Dalian Zhixing vs Wuhan Three Towns 77.3% 18.7% 4.0% 1.44 0.79
04 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Tianjin Teda vs Sichuan Jiuniu 57.7% 23.8% 18.5% 0.98 0.84
05 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City 21.9% 24.5% 53.6% 0.65 1.08
05 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 17 Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown 66.1% 22.2% 11.8% 1.19 0.89
10 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun 74.0% 20.0% 6.0% 1.36 0.84
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Wuhan Three Towns vs Henan Jianye 38.0% 26.8% 35.2% 0.70 0.86
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Jonoon 69.5% 21.3% 9.2% 0.95 0.56
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan 42.1% 26.2% 31.7% 1.19 1.29
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Youth Island 58.8% 23.6% 17.6% 0.98 0.82
11 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Chengdu Better City vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 58.6% 23.7% 17.8% 1.09 0.94
12 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 Tianjin Teda vs Shenyang Urban 62.4% 22.9% 14.7% 0.98 0.76
12 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 18 SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing 47.5% 25.4% 27.1% 1.24 1.26
17 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Beijing Guoan vs Shenyang Urban 73.3% 20.2% 6.5% 1.25 0.76
17 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon 61.3% 23.1% 15.5% 0.76 0.56
17 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Yunnan Yukun vs SHANGHAI SIPG 30.1% 25.9% 43.9% 1.08 1.36
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown 50.8% 24.9% 24.3% 0.91 0.89
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Qingdao Youth Island vs Chengdu Better City 37.3% 26.9% 35.8% 0.91 1.08
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Dalian Zhixing vs Shandong Luneng 59.0% 23.6% 17.4% 1.44 1.28
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda 57.2% 23.9% 18.9% 1.19 1.06
18 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 19 Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu 39.1% 26.6% 34.3% 0.70 0.84
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda 22.8% 24.7% 52.6% 0.65 1.06
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island 50.6% 25.0% 24.5% 0.84 0.82
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua 48.8% 25.2% 26.0% 1.24 1.24
25 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 32.8% 26.4% 40.9% 0.70 0.94
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu 62.8% 22.9% 14.4% 1.08 0.84
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan 35.5% 26.8% 37.6% 1.09 1.29
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye 73.5% 20.2% 6.4% 1.36 0.86
26 Jul 2026 Regular Season - 20 Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Zhixing 28.3% 25.6% 46.0% 0.95 1.26
08 Aug 2026 Regular Season - 22 Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns 58.8% 23.6% 17.6% 0.95 0.79
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long 66.6% 22.1% 11.4% 1.25 0.94
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda 69.2% 21.4% 9.4% 1.44 1.06
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu 35.5% 26.8% 37.6% 0.65 0.84
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City 65.2% 22.4% 12.4% 1.36 1.08
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban 72.8% 20.4% 6.8% 1.24 0.76
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island 68.8% 21.5% 9.7% 1.19 0.82
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns 65.3% 22.3% 12.3% 1.08 0.79
08 Nov 2026 Regular Season - 30 Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye 54.7% 24.3% 21.0% 0.95 0.86