98.8% average title probability
Chile Liga de Primera race map
Chile Liga de Primera Season Predictor 2026-2027
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
1.2% average title probability
98.3% average relegation risk
Gap score 10.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colo Colo | 1 | 58 | 65.7 | 98.8% | 98.4% | 99.2% |
| Universidad de Chile | 2 | 48 | 57.6 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| U. Catolica | 3 | 43 | 51.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everton de Vina | 4 | 39 | 47.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Palestino | 5 | 38 | 44.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deportes Limache | 6 | 37 | 44.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colo Colo | 1 | 1.0 | 100.0% | 98.8% | -0.3 |
| Universidad de Chile | 2 | 2.0 | 100.0% | 1.2% | 0.0 |
| U. Catolica | 3 | 3.0 | 94.1% | 0.0% | +0.4 |
| Everton de Vina | 4 | 4.0 | 56.5% | 0.0% | +0.1 |
| Deportes Limache | 6 | 5.0 | 23.0% | 0.0% | -0.4 |
| Palestino | 5 | 6.0 | 19.6% | 0.0% | -0.3 |
| Huachipato | 8 | 7.0 | 5.0% | 0.0% | +1.4 |
| Coquimbo Unido | 7 | 8.0 | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.8 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Relegation | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union La Calera | 16 | 21 | 16.0 | 98.3% | 97.8% | 98.7% |
| Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 23 | 15.0 | 90.4% | 90.3% | 90.4% |
| Cobresal | 14 | 26 | 14.0 | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| A. Italiano | 13 | 30 | 13.0 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| O'Higgins | 12 | 31 | 13.0 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Concepción | 11 | 32 | 11.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. La Serena | 10 | 9 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 10.0 |
| Deportes Limache | 5 | 5 | 45.1 | 44.7 | 8.6 |
| Huachipato | 7 | 7 | 41.9 | 43.3 | 7.0 |
| Everton de Vina | 4 | 4 | 46.9 | 47.0 | 6.6 |
| Coquimbo Unido | 8 | 8 | 40.5 | 39.7 | 4.0 |
| Concepción | 11 | 11 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 4.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile | 01 Nov 2026 | 220.7 | 40.9% | 25.6% | 33.5% | U. Catolica: Top 4 94.1% | Universidad de Chile: Top 4 100.0% |
| Colo Colo vs U. Catolica | 22 Nov 2026 | 212.3 | 59.5% | 21.6% | 19.1% | Colo Colo: Top 4 100.0% | U. Catolica: Top 4 94.1% |
| Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera | 06 Dec 2026 | 207.4 | 79.7% | 16.0% | 4.3% | Universidad de Chile: Top 4 100.0% | Union La Calera: Relegation 98.3% |
| Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion | 29 Nov 2026 | 206.9 | 59.5% | 23.4% | 17.2% | Union La Calera: Relegation 98.3% | Universidad de Concepcion: Relegation 90.4% |
| Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica | 06 Dec 2026 | 204.3 | 19.8% | 24.3% | 56.0% | Universidad de Concepcion: Relegation 90.4% | U. Catolica: Top 4 94.1% |
| U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache | 08 Nov 2026 | 136.6 | 56.6% | 21.6% | 21.9% | U. Catolica: Top 4 94.1% | Deportes Limache: Top 4 23.0% |
| Cobresal vs Colo Colo | 06 Dec 2026 | 134.5 | 28.5% | 24.0% | 47.5% | Cobresal: Relegation 10.9% | Colo Colo: Top 4 100.0% |
| Union La Calera vs Huachipato | 08 Nov 2026 | 131.6 | 35.9% | 27.1% | 37.1% | Union La Calera: Relegation 98.3% | Huachipato: Projection 0.0% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Liga de Primera. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
37
Goal Model Base
1.68 / 1.2
Form Model Base
1.39 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Relegation (15-16) | Form Relegation (15-16) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 58 | 65.8 | 65.5 | 1 | 1 | 98.4% | 99.2% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 48 | 57.6 | 57.6 | 2 | 2 | 1.6% | 0.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | U. Catolica | 43 | 50.9 | 51.3 | 3 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 92.2% | 95.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 39 | 46.9 | 47.0 | 4 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.2% | 59.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Palestino | 38 | 44.9 | 44.6 | 6 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 37 | 45.1 | 44.7 | 5 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 18.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 35 | 40.5 | 39.7 | 8 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Huachipato | 35 | 41.9 | 43.3 | 7 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Nublense | 35 | 40.2 | 40.0 | 9 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | D. La Serena | 33 | 39.2 | 39.2 | 10 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Concepción | 32 | 37.8 | 37.0 | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 31 | 35.8 | 35.9 | 13 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 13 | A. Italiano | 30 | 36.0 | 36.3 | 13 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 14 | Cobresal | 26 | 31.4 | 31.5 | 14 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 23 | 27.2 | 27.4 | 15 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 90.3% | 90.4% |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 21 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 16 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 97.8% | 98.7% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Huachipato vs D. La Serena | 44.7% | 21.4% | 33.9% | 1.99 | 1.72 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile | 38.6% | 25.1% | 36.3% | 1.44 | 1.39 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | 29.0% | 22.9% | 48.1% | 1.36 | 1.81 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano | 61.2% | 21.8% | 17.0% | 1.90 | 0.89 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Concepción vs Palestino | 46.7% | 26.6% | 26.8% | 1.44 | 1.02 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido | 44.9% | 24.9% | 30.2% | 1.56 | 1.24 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Everton de Vina vs Concepción | 48.2% | 27.3% | 24.6% | 1.40 | 0.91 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | D. La Serena vs Palestino | 49.1% | 23.1% | 27.8% | 1.80 | 1.31 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Nublense vs Colo Colo | 25.8% | 23.5% | 50.7% | 1.19 | 1.75 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache | 52.9% | 19.8% | 27.3% | 2.32 | 1.64 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal | 75.4% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 2.67 | 0.87 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins | 30.5% | 28.7% | 40.8% | 1.01 | 1.22 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Union La Calera vs Huachipato | 37.7% | 27.5% | 34.8% | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Cobresal vs A. Italiano | 49.8% | 25.5% | 24.7% | 1.55 | 1.01 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Colo Colo vs U. Catolica | 61.0% | 19.3% | 19.8% | 2.31 | 1.26 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | 36.1% | 25.9% | 38.0% | 1.32 | 1.36 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Huachipato vs Concepción | 44.5% | 25.3% | 30.2% | 1.52 | 1.21 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena | 57.1% | 20.0% | 22.9% | 2.24 | 1.37 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile | 23.2% | 29.3% | 47.6% | 0.78 | 1.26 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Palestino vs Union La Calera | 71.4% | 18.3% | 10.3% | 2.13 | 0.67 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense | 32.3% | 30.6% | 37.1% | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | A. Italiano vs Palestino | 49.5% | 25.2% | 25.3% | 1.57 | 1.05 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Colo Colo vs D. La Serena | 71.7% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 2.67 | 1.05 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache | 44.1% | 24.5% | 31.4% | 1.60 | 1.31 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Concepción vs Universidad de Chile | 27.6% | 30.4% | 42.1% | 0.87 | 1.14 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins | 51.0% | 23.7% | 25.3% | 1.74 | 1.15 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Nublense vs Cobresal | 47.2% | 23.5% | 29.3% | 1.74 | 1.32 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | U. Catolica vs Huachipato | 60.3% | 20.2% | 19.5% | 2.16 | 1.15 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion | 55.8% | 24.0% | 20.3% | 1.70 | 0.92 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Cobresal vs Colo Colo | 27.5% | 22.1% | 50.4% | 1.39 | 1.94 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Huachipato vs Nublense | 48.7% | 23.0% | 28.3% | 1.81 | 1.33 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | D. La Serena vs A. Italiano | 52.3% | 24.6% | 23.1% | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Deportes Limache vs Concepción | 55.0% | 23.9% | 21.1% | 1.71 | 0.96 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido | 36.1% | 26.3% | 37.6% | 1.29 | 1.32 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Palestino vs Everton de Vina | 40.8% | 23.9% | 35.3% | 1.60 | 1.48 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera | 79.9% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 2.39 | 0.49 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica | 21.1% | 24.7% | 54.2% | 0.92 | 1.63 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Huachipato vs D. La Serena | 54.2% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile | 43.2% | 26.0% | 30.7% | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | 38.4% | 26.7% | 34.8% | 1.01 | 1.17 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Deportes Limache vs A. Italiano | 59.1% | 23.6% | 17.3% | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 26 | Concepción vs Palestino | 52.8% | 24.6% | 22.6% | 0.96 | 0.90 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido | 57.3% | 23.9% | 18.8% | 0.98 | 0.85 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Everton de Vina vs Concepción | 61.0% | 23.2% | 15.8% | 1.09 | 0.89 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | D. La Serena vs Palestino | 57.4% | 23.9% | 18.7% | 1.04 | 0.90 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Nublense vs Colo Colo | 25.8% | 25.2% | 49.0% | 0.95 | 1.31 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache | 60.2% | 23.4% | 16.5% | 1.20 | 1.02 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal | 77.6% | 18.6% | 3.8% | 1.43 | 0.77 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins | 39.9% | 26.5% | 33.6% | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 27 | Union La Calera vs Huachipato | 34.0% | 26.6% | 39.4% | 0.83 | 1.05 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Cobresal vs A. Italiano | 55.1% | 24.3% | 20.6% | 1.01 | 0.92 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Colo Colo vs U. Catolica | 57.9% | 23.8% | 18.3% | 1.36 | 1.21 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | 37.6% | 26.8% | 35.5% | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Huachipato vs Concepción | 61.0% | 23.2% | 15.8% | 1.09 | 0.89 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena | 53.6% | 24.5% | 21.9% | 1.08 | 1.01 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | O'Higgins vs Universidad de Chile | 27.9% | 25.6% | 46.5% | 0.97 | 1.29 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Palestino vs Union La Calera | 71.2% | 20.9% | 8.0% | 1.11 | 0.68 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 28 | Universidad de Concepcion vs Nublense | 40.2% | 26.5% | 33.4% | 0.71 | 0.84 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | A. Italiano vs Palestino | 54.2% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Colo Colo vs D. La Serena | 67.8% | 21.8% | 10.5% | 1.36 | 1.01 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache | 47.7% | 25.4% | 26.9% | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Concepción vs Universidad de Chile | 27.6% | 25.5% | 46.9% | 0.96 | 1.29 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Everton de Vina vs O'Higgins | 63.5% | 22.7% | 13.8% | 1.09 | 0.85 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Nublense vs Cobresal | 60.2% | 23.4% | 16.4% | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | U. Catolica vs Huachipato | 58.4% | 23.7% | 17.9% | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 29 | Union La Calera vs Universidad de Concepcion | 63.1% | 22.8% | 14.1% | 0.83 | 0.59 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Cobresal vs Colo Colo | 29.5% | 25.8% | 44.6% | 1.01 | 1.31 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Huachipato vs Nublense | 63.7% | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.09 | 0.84 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | D. La Serena vs A. Italiano | 56.5% | 24.0% | 19.5% | 1.04 | 0.92 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Deportes Limache vs Concepción | 60.5% | 23.3% | 16.2% | 1.08 | 0.89 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido | 56.2% | 24.1% | 19.7% | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Palestino vs Everton de Vina | 45.2% | 25.8% | 29.0% | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera | 79.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 1.43 | 0.68 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 30 | Universidad de Concepcion vs U. Catolica | 18.4% | 23.8% | 57.7% | 0.71 | 1.21 |