Phase Winner probability sits at 70.0% and the most likely finish is 1.0.
Argentina Liga Profesional race map
Argentina Liga Profesional Season Predictor 2026-2027
This season is organized into imported phase tables. Each section below starts from the live Apertura or Clausura table and only simulates the remaining fixtures still left inside that phase.
Multi-Phase Predictor
This competition has imported Apertura, Clausura tables. Each section below starts from that phase table and only simulates the remaining fixtures still left in the same phase.
Apertura Has Concluded
Apertura has concluded, so there are no remaining fixtures to simulate.
Clausura Predictor
Clausura is modeled from its imported phase table, so the projections do not merge Apertura and Clausura into one standings race.
Instituto Cordoba is still on 70.0% average phase winner odds.
Velez Sarsfield owns the biggest model gap at 30.0, which usually marks the most debatable team in the group.
Projected Table
How the Clausura looks once the remaining group fixtures are simulated.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Phase Winner | Avg Play-offs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instituto Cordoba | 1 | 33 | 35.1 | 1.0 | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| Rosario Central | 2 | 31 | 33.5 | 2.0 | 28.2% | 28.2% |
| Argentinos JRS | 4 | 28 | 32.0 | 3.0 | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Boca Juniors | 6 | 27 | 30.9 | 4.0 | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Velez Sarsfield | 3 | 28 | 29.5 | 5.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gimnasia L.P. | 5 | 28 | 29.7 | 5.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 7 | 27 | 29.7 | 6.0 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lanus | 8 | 24 | 28.1 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| River Plate | 9 | 23 | 25.6 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Belgrano Cordoba | 10 | 22 | 24.6 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barracas Central | 11 | 22 | 25.2 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newells Old Boys | 12 | 21 | 23.8 | 11.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gimnasia M. | 14 | 20 | 22.9 | 12.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarmiento Junin | 13 | 21 | 22.3 | 14.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Independiente | 15 | 19 | 21.6 | 15.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 17 | 19 | 21.6 | 15.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atletico Tucuman | 19 | 17 | 19.6 | 17.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| San Lorenzo | 18 | 19 | 20.7 | 17.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Huracan | 16 | 19 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Union Santa Fe | 20 | 17 | 19.0 | 21.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tigre | 21 | 16 | 17.4 | 22.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Platense | 25 | 14 | 16.7 | 22.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estudiantes L.P. | 22 | 15 | 16.2 | 23.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Banfield | 24 | 14 | 16.0 | 24.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Racing Club | 23 | 15 | 15.8 | 25.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Talleres Cordoba | 26 | 12 | 13.7 | 26.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deportivo Riestra | 27 | 12 | 13.0 | 27.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aldosivi | 28 | 11 | 12.0 | 28.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Central Cordoba de Santiago | 29 | 10 | 11.8 | 29.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 30 | 9 | 9.4 | 30.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model Disagreement
The teams where goal strength and points-form still tell the most different story inside this group.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield | 4 | 7 | 29.6 | 29.3 | 30.0 |
| San Lorenzo | 19 | 16 | 20.3 | 21.1 | 30.0 |
| Instituto Cordoba | 1 | 1 | 34.8 | 35.4 | 17.5 |
| Rosario Central | 2 | 2 | 33.3 | 33.6 | 14.8 |
| Gimnasia L.P. | 6 | 5 | 29.3 | 30.0 | 10.0 |
| Gimnasia M. | 12 | 13 | 23.1 | 22.6 | 10.0 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score works the same way here as in the regular-season view, but it is focused only on the fixtures still left in Clausura.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys | 08 Nov 2026 | 87.3 | 61.6% | 25.8% | 12.7% | Instituto Cordoba: Title 70.0% | Newells Old Boys: Projection 0.0% |
| Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 08 Nov 2026 | 39.3 | 75.4% | 18.4% | 6.2% | Rosario Central: Title 28.2% | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: Projection 0.0% |
| Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin | 08 Nov 2026 | 27.5 | 38.8% | 27.2% | 34.1% | Tigre: Projection 0.0% | Sarmiento Junin: Projection 0.0% |
| Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central | 01 Nov 2026 | 27.3 | 39.3% | 28.6% | 32.1% | Belgrano Cordoba: Projection 0.0% | Barracas Central: Projection 0.0% |
| Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield | 08 Nov 2026 | 26.6 | 34.9% | 24.2% | 41.0% | Union Santa Fe: Projection 0.0% | Velez Sarsfield: Projection 0.0% |
| Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman | 08 Nov 2026 | 25.3 | 28.3% | 27.9% | 43.8% | Banfield: Projection 0.0% | Atletico Tucuman: Projection 0.0% |
| Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. | 08 Nov 2026 | 24.8 | 45.0% | 26.3% | 28.7% | Talleres Cordoba: Projection 0.0% | Estudiantes L.P.: Projection 0.0% |
| Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba | 08 Nov 2026 | 24.5 | 45.6% | 28.0% | 26.5% | Gimnasia L.P.: Projection 0.0% | Belgrano Cordoba: Projection 0.0% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output for Clausura, including projected finishes and remaining fixture probabilities.
This section simulates the remaining Clausura fixtures from the imported live phase table. Apertura and Clausura are modeled as separate phase races, so results from one phase are not merged into the other standings table.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
23
Goal Model Base
1.24 / 1.06
Form Model Base
1.37 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Phase Winner | Form Phase Winner | Goal Play-offs | Form Play-offs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 33 | 34.8 | 35.4 | 1 | 1 | 61.2% | 78.7% | 61.2% | 78.7% |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 31 | 33.3 | 33.6 | 2 | 2 | 35.6% | 20.8% | 35.6% | 20.8% |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 28 | 29.6 | 29.3 | 4 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Argentinos JRS | 28 | 31.6 | 32.4 | 3 | 3 | 2.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 5 | Gimnasia L.P. | 28 | 29.3 | 30.0 | 6 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Boca Juniors | 27 | 30.5 | 31.3 | 4 | 4 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Defensa Y Justicia | 27 | 29.5 | 29.8 | 6 | 6 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Lanus | 24 | 27.8 | 28.4 | 8 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 9 | River Plate | 23 | 25.8 | 25.4 | 9 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Belgrano Cordoba | 22 | 24.6 | 24.5 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Barracas Central | 22 | 25.1 | 25.3 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | Newells Old Boys | 21 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 11 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Sarmiento Junin | 21 | 22.3 | 22.3 | 14 | 14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Gimnasia M. | 20 | 23.1 | 22.6 | 12 | 13 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Independiente | 19 | 21.5 | 21.7 | 15 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Huracan | 19 | 19.7 | 19.3 | 19 | 19 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17 | Independ. Rivadavia | 19 | 21.4 | 21.8 | 15 | 15 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 | San Lorenzo | 19 | 20.3 | 21.1 | 19 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Atletico Tucuman | 17 | 19.8 | 19.3 | 17 | 17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Union Santa Fe | 17 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 21 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 21 | Tigre | 16 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 22 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 22 | Estudiantes L.P. | 15 | 16.3 | 16.0 | 24 | 23 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Racing Club | 15 | 16.0 | 15.5 | 25 | 25 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Banfield | 14 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 25 | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 25 | Platense | 14 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 22 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 26 | Talleres Cordoba | 12 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 27 | 26 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 27 | Deportivo Riestra | 12 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 27 | 27 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 28 | Aldosivi | 11 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 28 | 28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 29 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 29 | 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 30 | 30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Boca Juniors vs River Plate | 46.4% | 27.2% | 26.4% | 1.39 | 0.98 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central | 32.2% | 31.6% | 36.2% | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe | 54.6% | 25.1% | 20.3% | 1.59 | 0.86 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Lanus vs Gimnasia M. | 47.4% | 29.0% | 23.6% | 1.27 | 0.81 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente | 41.0% | 31.4% | 27.6% | 1.08 | 0.83 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Platense vs Central Cordoba de Santiago | 36.3% | 28.6% | 35.2% | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS | 26.6% | 31.1% | 42.3% | 0.81 | 1.11 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield | 50.0% | 23.0% | 27.0% | 1.81 | 1.27 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Aldosivi vs River Plate | 25.8% | 25.8% | 48.5% | 1.03 | 1.52 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Argentinos JRS vs Huracan | 58.5% | 25.1% | 16.4% | 1.58 | 0.70 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman | 24.0% | 29.4% | 46.5% | 0.80 | 1.24 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Barracas Central vs Racing Club | 46.0% | 30.5% | 23.5% | 1.18 | 0.75 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia | 51.4% | 25.7% | 22.8% | 1.53 | 0.93 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Lanus | 13.9% | 23.9% | 62.2% | 0.63 | 1.66 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba | 33.5% | 32.1% | 34.4% | 0.93 | 0.95 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia | 60.4% | 24.6% | 15.0% | 1.61 | 0.66 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra | 33.0% | 37.4% | 29.6% | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys | 48.8% | 31.8% | 19.5% | 1.14 | 0.60 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 70.0% | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.96 | 0.59 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | San Lorenzo vs Platense | 33.8% | 33.7% | 32.6% | 0.88 | 0.85 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. | 39.6% | 27.6% | 32.7% | 1.27 | 1.13 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin | 38.1% | 27.7% | 34.2% | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield | 30.4% | 21.8% | 47.9% | 1.54 | 1.97 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Boca Juniors vs River Plate | 64.9% | 22.4% | 12.6% | 1.48 | 1.21 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Belgrano Cordoba vs Barracas Central | 46.4% | 25.6% | 28.0% | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe | 70.6% | 21.0% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 0.79 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Lanus vs Gimnasia M. | 69.4% | 21.4% | 9.3% | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente | 64.6% | 22.5% | 12.9% | 1.37 | 1.10 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Platense vs Central Cordoba de Santiago | 55.3% | 24.2% | 20.5% | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS | 19.7% | 24.1% | 56.2% | 0.73 | 1.20 |
| 03 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 15 | Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield | 63.5% | 22.7% | 13.8% | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Aldosivi vs River Plate | 24.8% | 25.0% | 50.1% | 0.83 | 1.21 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Argentinos JRS vs Huracan | 76.7% | 19.0% | 4.3% | 1.44 | 0.81 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman | 32.6% | 26.4% | 41.1% | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Barracas Central vs Racing Club | 67.1% | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.12 | 0.79 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia | 62.6% | 22.9% | 14.5% | 1.48 | 1.26 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Lanus | 15.5% | 23.1% | 61.4% | 0.64 | 1.20 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba | 57.6% | 23.8% | 18.5% | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia | 62.1% | 23.0% | 14.9% | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra | 60.9% | 23.2% | 15.9% | 0.81 | 0.61 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys | 74.4% | 19.8% | 5.8% | 1.52 | 0.98 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Rosario Central vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 80.8% | 16.9% | 2.2% | 1.40 | 0.57 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | San Lorenzo vs Platense | 61.8% | 23.1% | 15.1% | 1.11 | 0.90 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Talleres Cordoba vs Estudiantes L.P. | 50.4% | 25.0% | 24.6% | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin | 39.4% | 26.6% | 34.0% | 0.81 | 0.95 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Clausura - 16 | Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield | 39.4% | 26.6% | 34.0% | 0.98 | 1.12 |