50.1% average title probability
Albania Superliga race map
Albania Superliga Season Predictor 2026-2027
A standalone race page built off the site’s simulation engine. It surfaces title pressure, top 4 probability, relegation danger, model disagreement and the remaining fixtures carrying the most heat.
48.2% average title probability
96.0% average relegation risk
Gap score 20.0 between the two models
Race Storylines
Quick reads on how open the biggest season battles still are.
Teams with at least a 10% average title chance across the goal and form models.
These sides sit in the messy middle where a strong finish still materially changes the season outcome.
Average relegation probability between 15% and 85%, which is usually where the stress lives.
Title Race
The clubs with the strongest path to first place right now.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Exp Pts | Avg Title | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 21 | 37.9 | 50.1% | 46.5% | 53.7% |
| Teuta Durrës | 2 | 20 | 37.4 | 48.2% | 50.9% | 45.4% |
| Dinamo Tirana | 3 | 16 | 29.6 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Tirana | 4 | 12 | 24.8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| AF Elbasani | 5 | 11 | 23.3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laci | 6 | 11 | 21.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Top 4 Battle
Who still has a realistic route into the high-value positions.
| Team | Pos | Avg Finish | Avg Top 4 | Avg Title | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 1.0 | 99.9% | 50.1% | +2.0 |
| Teuta Durrës | 2 | 1.5 | 99.9% | 48.2% | +0.8 |
| Dinamo Tirana | 3 | 3.0 | 86.4% | 1.6% | +0.6 |
| Tirana | 4 | 4.0 | 41.4% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| AF Elbasani | 5 | 5.0 | 25.7% | 0.1% | -0.2 |
| Vora | 7 | 6.0 | 20.7% | 0.0% | +1.7 |
| Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 7.0 | 14.4% | 0.0% | -0.7 |
| Laci | 6 | 8.0 | 9.8% | 0.0% | -0.5 |
Relegation Watch
The most exposed clubs if the rest of the season follows the current signal.
| Team | Pos | Pts | Avg Finish | Avg Bottom Finish | Goal | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partizani | 10 | 4 | 10.0 | 96.0% | 93.3% | 98.7% |
| Vllaznia Shkodër | 9 | 8 | 9.0 | 54.9% | 49.3% | 60.4% |
| Laci | 6 | 11 | 8.0 | 17.4% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 10 | 7.0 | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
| Vora | 7 | 11 | 6.0 | 9.8% | 14.6% | 4.9% |
| AF Elbasani | 5 | 11 | 5.0 | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
Model Disagreement
The sides where underlying goal strength and current points-form tell the most different story.
| Team | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vora | 7 | 5 | 22.1 | 23.8 | 20.0 |
| Partizani | 10 | 10 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 11.5 |
| Vllaznia Shkodër | 9 | 9 | 18.3 | 17.6 | 11.1 |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 1 | 36.9 | 38.9 | 10.0 |
| Teuta Durrës | 1 | 2 | 37.0 | 37.8 | 10.0 |
| Dinamo Tirana | 3 | 3 | 29.3 | 29.9 | 8.4 |
High-Leverage Fixtures
The race-heat score highlights the remaining fixtures most likely to shape the season. It combines each club’s biggest live stake, such as the title race, top 4 push or relegation danger, with how open the match still looks in the two models. Higher scores point to games where the result could change the league picture more sharply than an ordinary fixture.
| Match | Date | Race Heat | Home | Draw | Away | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teuta Durrës vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 23 Dec 2026 | 220.9 | 53.1% | 25.6% | 21.4% | Teuta Durrës: Top 4 99.9% | Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Top 4 99.9% |
| Partizani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 02 Dec 2026 | 211.1 | 13.2% | 20.5% | 66.3% | Partizani: Bottom Finish 96.0% | Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Top 4 99.9% |
| Teuta Durrës vs Partizani | 02 Nov 2026 | 206.7 | 76.0% | 17.5% | 6.6% | Teuta Durrës: Top 4 99.9% | Partizani: Bottom Finish 96.0% |
| Teuta Durrës vs Dinamo Tirana | 12 Dec 2026 | 205.0 | 58.4% | 25.0% | 16.7% | Teuta Durrës: Top 4 99.9% | Dinamo Tirana: Top 4 86.4% |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Dinamo Tirana | 19 Dec 2026 | 203.4 | 62.1% | 22.8% | 15.2% | Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Top 4 99.9% | Dinamo Tirana: Top 4 86.4% |
| Dinamo Tirana vs Partizani | 28 Nov 2026 | 198.0 | 65.4% | 20.6% | 14.0% | Dinamo Tirana: Top 4 86.4% | Partizani: Bottom Finish 96.0% |
| Partizani vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 22 Nov 2026 | 179.0 | 36.7% | 26.0% | 37.5% | Partizani: Bottom Finish 96.0% | Vllaznia Shkodër: Bottom Finish 54.9% |
| Vllaznia Shkodër vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 12 Dec 2026 | 177.6 | 26.3% | 24.5% | 49.3% | Vllaznia Shkodër: Bottom Finish 54.9% | Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Top 4 99.9% |
Full Simulation Tables
The full two-model output, including projected points and fixture-level win probabilities.
This tab shows two Monte Carlo models for Superliga. The first is the goal-strength model, which estimates each match from how strongly teams have scored and conceded goals so far. The second is a points-form model built from points per game, home and away splits, and recent form, so it leans more on results momentum than raw goal output. Both simulate the remaining fixture list 50,000 times.
Simulations
50,000
Remaining Fixtures
45
Goal Model Base
1.49 / 1.13
Form Model Base
1.38 PPG
Model Comparison
| # | Team | Current Pts | Goal Exp Pts | Form Exp Pts | Goal Finish | Form Finish | Goal Title | Form Title | Goal Top 4 | Form Top 4 | Goal Bottom Finish (9-10) | Form Bottom Finish (9-10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 21 | 36.9 | 38.9 | 1 | 1 | 46.5% | 53.7% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Teuta Durrës | 20 | 37.0 | 37.8 | 1 | 2 | 50.9% | 45.4% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 16 | 29.3 | 29.9 | 3 | 3 | 2.3% | 0.9% | 82.2% | 90.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Tirana | 12 | 24.8 | 24.7 | 4 | 4 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 41.5% | 41.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 11 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 5 | 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 28.4% | 23.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
| 6 | Laci | 11 | 21.4 | 20.9 | 8 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| 7 | Vora | 11 | 22.1 | 23.8 | 7 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% | 26.0% | 14.6% | 4.9% |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 10 | 22.1 | 21.4 | 7 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.9% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 18.3 | 17.6 | 9 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 49.3% | 60.4% |
| 10 | Partizani | 4 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 10 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 93.3% | 98.7% |
Goal-Strength Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Proj G H | Proj G A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 40.9% | 25.1% | 33.9% | 1.48 | 1.33 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | AF Elbasani vs Laci | 48.8% | 26.2% | 25.0% | 1.48 | 0.98 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 50.7% | 26.1% | 23.2% | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Vora vs Dinamo Tirana | 35.8% | 25.0% | 39.2% | 1.38 | 1.46 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Teuta Durrës vs Partizani | 72.4% | 17.4% | 10.3% | 2.26 | 0.72 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Tirana vs Teuta Durrës | 30.6% | 29.5% | 39.9% | 0.98 | 1.16 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Laci vs Partizani | 48.4% | 23.8% | 27.9% | 1.71 | 1.25 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs AF Elbasani | 40.0% | 26.4% | 33.5% | 1.36 | 1.22 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Dinamo Tirana vs Skenderbeu Korce | 44.5% | 26.3% | 29.2% | 1.44 | 1.11 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vora | 70.3% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 2.04 | 0.63 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana | 37.8% | 27.1% | 35.1% | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Partizani vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 36.0% | 25.0% | 39.1% | 1.39 | 1.46 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 30.7% | 26.7% | 42.7% | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Teuta Durrës vs Laci | 62.5% | 24.0% | 13.5% | 1.64 | 0.61 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Vora vs Tirana | 50.8% | 22.8% | 26.4% | 1.84 | 1.27 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Dinamo Tirana vs Partizani | 57.1% | 21.1% | 21.8% | 2.06 | 1.20 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs AF Elbasani | 61.7% | 22.2% | 16.1% | 1.84 | 0.82 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Tirana vs Skenderbeu Korce | 51.5% | 24.7% | 23.8% | 1.63 | 1.02 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs Laci | 42.5% | 26.2% | 31.4% | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Vora vs Teuta Durrës | 24.1% | 26.5% | 49.4% | 0.93 | 1.46 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | AF Elbasani vs Tirana | 52.2% | 24.2% | 23.6% | 1.69 | 1.05 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Laci vs Dinamo Tirana | 30.3% | 27.6% | 42.1% | 1.07 | 1.31 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Partizani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 17.1% | 19.6% | 63.3% | 1.05 | 2.19 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Vora | 50.5% | 27.9% | 21.6% | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Teuta Durrës vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 69.3% | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.91 | 0.57 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Dinamo Tirana vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 55.7% | 23.6% | 20.7% | 1.74 | 0.96 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Laci | 64.1% | 21.3% | 14.6% | 1.92 | 0.79 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Tirana vs Partizani | 64.7% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 2.34 | 1.11 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Teuta Durrës | 22.8% | 30.1% | 47.1% | 0.74 | 1.21 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Vora vs AF Elbasani | 44.9% | 25.0% | 30.1% | 1.55 | 1.22 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | AF Elbasani vs Skenderbeu Korce | 45.2% | 26.6% | 28.2% | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Laci vs Tirana | 43.4% | 26.3% | 30.2% | 1.42 | 1.14 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Partizani vs Vora | 37.0% | 26.9% | 36.1% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Teuta Durrës vs Dinamo Tirana | 52.5% | 27.4% | 20.1% | 1.41 | 0.75 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 28.5% | 24.1% | 47.4% | 1.24 | 1.67 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | AF Elbasani vs Teuta Durrës | 26.0% | 29.7% | 44.3% | 0.85 | 1.21 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Dinamo Tirana | 53.1% | 24.6% | 22.3% | 1.64 | 0.97 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Tirana vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 62.7% | 21.1% | 16.2% | 1.97 | 0.89 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Partizani | 52.0% | 23.4% | 24.7% | 1.78 | 1.15 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Vora vs Laci | 47.5% | 24.6% | 27.9% | 1.62 | 1.18 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Dinamo Tirana vs Tirana | 51.6% | 24.0% | 24.4% | 1.70 | 1.10 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Laci vs Skenderbeu Korce | 37.1% | 28.1% | 34.9% | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Partizani vs AF Elbasani | 27.3% | 24.7% | 48.0% | 1.15 | 1.61 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Teuta Durrës vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 50.6% | 26.9% | 22.5% | 1.44 | 0.86 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs Vora | 50.1% | 26.0% | 23.9% | 1.50 | 0.95 |
Points-Form Fixture Probabilities
| Date | Round | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Home Form | Away Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Tirana vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 36.8% | 27.0% | 36.2% | 1.12 | 1.29 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | AF Elbasani vs Laci | 61.3% | 23.2% | 15.5% | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| 01 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 63.0% | 22.8% | 14.2% | 0.96 | 0.72 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Vora vs Dinamo Tirana | 43.8% | 26.0% | 30.2% | 1.06 | 1.13 |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 10 | Teuta Durrës vs Partizani | 79.6% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 1.39 | 0.63 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Tirana vs Teuta Durrës | 34.9% | 26.7% | 38.3% | 1.12 | 1.32 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Laci vs Partizani | 65.1% | 22.4% | 12.5% | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| 07 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs AF Elbasani | 54.5% | 24.4% | 21.2% | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Dinamo Tirana vs Skenderbeu Korce | 63.0% | 22.8% | 14.2% | 1.15 | 0.91 |
| 08 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 11 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vora | 77.7% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 1.56 | 0.89 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | AF Elbasani vs Dinamo Tirana | 43.8% | 26.0% | 30.3% | 1.06 | 1.13 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Partizani vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 37.3% | 26.9% | 35.8% | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 27.1% | 25.4% | 47.5% | 0.96 | 1.29 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Teuta Durrës vs Laci | 74.6% | 19.8% | 5.6% | 1.39 | 0.85 |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 12 | Vora vs Tirana | 58.0% | 23.8% | 18.2% | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Dinamo Tirana vs Partizani | 73.7% | 20.1% | 6.2% | 1.15 | 0.63 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs AF Elbasani | 79.4% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 1.56 | 0.82 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Tirana vs Skenderbeu Korce | 61.5% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs Laci | 52.2% | 24.7% | 23.1% | 0.90 | 0.85 |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Regular Season - 13 | Vora vs Teuta Durrës | 31.3% | 26.1% | 42.6% | 1.06 | 1.32 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | AF Elbasani vs Tirana | 58.0% | 23.8% | 18.2% | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Laci vs Dinamo Tirana | 34.3% | 26.6% | 39.0% | 0.92 | 1.13 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Partizani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 9.3% | 21.4% | 69.3% | 0.55 | 1.29 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Vora | 53.1% | 24.6% | 22.3% | 0.96 | 0.89 |
| 02 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 14 | Teuta Durrës vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 77.9% | 18.4% | 3.7% | 1.39 | 0.72 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Dinamo Tirana vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 71.0% | 20.9% | 8.1% | 1.15 | 0.72 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Laci | 78.6% | 18.1% | 3.3% | 1.56 | 0.85 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Tirana vs Partizani | 72.8% | 20.4% | 6.8% | 1.12 | 0.63 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Teuta Durrës | 25.4% | 25.1% | 49.5% | 0.96 | 1.32 |
| 06 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 15 | Vora vs AF Elbasani | 63.2% | 22.8% | 14.0% | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | AF Elbasani vs Skenderbeu Korce | 58.2% | 23.7% | 18.1% | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Laci vs Tirana | 49.3% | 25.2% | 25.5% | 0.92 | 0.91 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Partizani vs Vora | 26.8% | 25.4% | 47.9% | 0.55 | 0.89 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Teuta Durrës vs Dinamo Tirana | 64.2% | 22.6% | 13.2% | 1.39 | 1.13 |
| 12 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 16 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 24.0% | 24.9% | 51.1% | 0.90 | 1.29 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | AF Elbasani vs Teuta Durrës | 31.3% | 26.1% | 42.6% | 1.06 | 1.32 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Dinamo Tirana | 71.0% | 20.9% | 8.1% | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Tirana vs Vllaznia Shkodër | 69.9% | 21.2% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 0.72 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Skenderbeu Korce vs Partizani | 66.8% | 22.0% | 11.2% | 0.96 | 0.63 |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 17 | Vora vs Laci | 61.4% | 23.1% | 15.5% | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Dinamo Tirana vs Tirana | 62.9% | 22.8% | 14.3% | 1.15 | 0.91 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Laci vs Skenderbeu Korce | 49.5% | 25.1% | 25.3% | 0.92 | 0.91 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Partizani vs AF Elbasani | 31.3% | 26.1% | 42.5% | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Teuta Durrës vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 55.6% | 24.2% | 20.3% | 1.39 | 1.29 |
| 23 Dec 2026 | Regular Season - 18 | Vllaznia Shkodër vs Vora | 49.5% | 25.1% | 25.3% | 0.90 | 0.89 |